Probability analysis of exit poll deviations using Freeman's data

TruthIsAll

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Thu Feb-03-05 12:36 AM
Original message

Probability analysis of exit poll deviations using Freeman's data

Edited on Thu Feb-03-05 01:33 AM by TruthIsAll

Here is a probability analysis of vote deviations, based on
the exit poll margin of error, using Freeman's exit poll and
vote data. Exit poll and vote percentages are adjusted to the
2-party equivalent.

Freeman's data:
42 states deviated to Bush, 16 exceeded the margin of error.
Prob = 1 - NORMDIST(15,50,.025,TRUE)
Odds = 1/Prob = 1 in 19 trillion.

My data: 
42 states deviated to Bush, 15 exceeded the margin of error.
Prob = 1 - NORMDIST(14,50,.025,TRUE)
Odds = 1/Prob = 1 in 1.1 trillion.

N    = exit poll sample size
MOE  = margin of error = 1/sqrt(N)
Std  = standard deviation = MOE/1.96
Exit = Kerry 2-party exit poll%
Vote = Kerry 2-party vote%
Dev  = Vote - Exit
Prob = probability of deviation

										
	N	MOE	StD	Exit	Vote	Dev	Prob  	 1 in	Favor	>MoE?
AK	910	3.31%	1.69%	40.141	36.17	-3.97%	0.9%	106	Bush	yes
AL	730	3.70%	1.89%	41.08	37.078	-4.00%	1.7%	59	Bush	yes
AR	1402	2.67%	1.36%	46.931	44.74	-2.19%	5.4%	19	Bush	
AZ	1859	2.32%	1.18%	46.596	45.027	-1.57%	9.2%	11	Bush	
CA	1919	2.28%	1.16%	55.732	55.206	-0.53%	32.6%	3	Bush	

CO	2515	1.99%	1.02%	49.072	47.349	-1.72%	4.5%	22	Bush	
CT	872	3.39%	1.73%	58.474	55.237	-3.24%	3.0%	33	Bush	
DC	795	3.55%	1.81%	91.633	90.632	-4.62%	0.5%	188	Bush	yes
DE	770	3.60%	1.84%	58.439	53.817	-2.46%	9.0%	11	Bush	
FL	2846	1.87%	0.96%	49.93	47.469	-1.53%	5.5%	18	Bush	

GA	1536	2.55%	1.30%	43.11	41.582	1.05%	20.9%	5	Kerry	
HI	499	4.48%	2.28%	53.32	54.373	-1.13%	31.1%	3	Bush	
IA	2502	2.00%	1.02%	50.673	49.544	-2.63%	0.5%	199	Bush	yes
ID	559	4.23%	2.16%	33.333	30.707	-2.14%	16.1%		Bush	
IL	1392	2.68%	1.37%	57.131	54.993	-1.51%	13.4%	7	Bush	

IN	926	3.29%	1.68%	40.97	39.456	2.37%	7.9%		Kerry	
KS	654	3.91%	2.00%	34.602	36.97	-0.76%	35.1%	3	Bush	
KY	1034	3.11%	1.59%	40.755	39.994	-1.87%	11.9%	8	Bush	
LA	1669	2.45%	1.25%	44.495	42.626	-3.76%	0.1%	771	Bush	yes
MA	889	3.35%	1.71%	66.463	62.701	-0.79%	32.2%	3	Bush	

MD	1000	3.16%	1.61%	57.038	56.249	-0.36%	41.3%	2	Bush	
ME	1968	2.25%	1.15%	54.834	54.479	-0.82%	23.9%		Bush	
MI	2452	2.02%	1.03%	52.551	51.734	-2.85%	0.3%	350	Bush	yes
MN	2178	2.14%	1.09%	54.612	51.764	-1.15%	14.7%	7	Bush	
MO	2158	2.15%	1.10%	47.475	46.327	-3.30%	0.1%	745	Bush	yes

MS	798	3.54%	1.81%	43.203	39.906	0.22%	45.1%	2	Kerry	
MT	640	3.95%	2.02%	39.282	39.505	-3.60%	3.7%	27	Bush	
NC	2167	2.15%	1.10%	47.312	43.715	2.51%	1.1%	91	Kerry	yes
ND	649	3.93%	2.00%	33.577	36.086	-4.01%	2.3%	44	Bush	yes
NE	785	3.57%	1.82%	36.541	32.533	-4.81%	0.4%	243	Bush	yes

NH	1849	2.33%	1.19%	55.495	50.684	-3.00%	0.6%	174	Bush	yes
NJ	1520	2.56%	1.31%	56.126	53.127	-1.93%	7.0%	14	Bush	
NM	1951	2.26%	1.16%	51.343	49.416	-1.99%	4.2%	24	Bush	
NV	2116	2.17%	1.11%	50.66	48.666	-5.17%	0.0%	641302	Bush	yes
NY	1452	2.62%	1.34%	63.965	58.793	-3.31%	0.7%	149	Bush	yes

OH	1963	2.26%	1.15%	52.06	48.749	-0.29%	40.1%	2	Bush	
OK	1539	2.55%	1.30%	34.727	34.438	0.75%	28.3%	4	Kerry	
OR	1064	3.07%	1.56%	51.223	51.969	-3.28%	1.8%	55	Bush	yes
PA	1930	2.28%	1.16%	54.408	51.13	-3.76%	0.1%	1634	Bush	yes
RI	809	3.52%	1.79%	64.237	60.482	-4.48%	0.6%	160	Bush	yes

SC	1735	2.40%	1.22%	45.785	41.305	1.67%	8.6%	12	Kerry	
SD	1495	2.59%	1.32%	37.417	39.088	1.63%	10.9%	9	Kerry	
TN	1774	2.37%	1.21%	41.153	42.78	1.65%	8.6%	12	Kerry	
TX	1671	2.45%	1.25%	36.838	38.49	-2.87%	1.1%	93	Bush	yes
UT	798	3.54%	1.81%	29.93	27.061	-2.31%	10.0%	10	Bush	

VA	1431	2.64%	1.35%	47.959	45.649	-5.35%	0.0%	27433	Bush	yes
VT	685	3.82%	1.95%	65.686	60.336	-1.47%	22.6%	4	Bush	
WA	2123	2.17%	1.11%	55.066	53.598	-0.02%	49.5%	2	Bush	
WI	2223	2.12%	1.08%	50.214	50.199	-1.72%	5.6%	18	Bush	
WV	1722	2.41%	1.23%	45.194	43.477	-2.37%	2.7%	37	Bush	
WY	684	3.82%	1.95%	32.072	29.704	0.00%	50.0%	2	Kerry	
										
Avg	1,443	2.85%	1.46%	48.840	47.002	-1.82%	10.34%	10		18

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TruthIsAll

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Thu Feb-03-05 01:45 AM
Response to Original message

1. Data Correction to State Probabilities

Edited on Thu Feb-03-05 02:09 AM by TruthIsAll

Here is a probability analysis of vote deviations, based on
the exit poll margin of error, using Freeman's exit poll and
vote data. Exit poll and vote percentages are adjusted to the
2-party equivalent.

Freeman's data:
42 states deviated to Bush, 16 exceeded the margin of error.
Prob = 1 - NORMDIST(15,50,.025,TRUE)
Odds = 1/Prob = 1 in 19 trillion.

My data: 
42 states deviated to Bush, 15 exceeded the margin of error.
Prob = 1 - NORMDIST(14,50,.025,TRUE)
Odds = 1/Prob = 1 in 1 trillion.

N    = exit poll sample size
MOE  = margin of error = 1/sqrt(N)
Std  = standard deviation = MOE/1.96
Exit = Kerry 2-party exit poll%
Vote = Kerry 2-party vote%
Dev  = Vote - Exit
Prob = probability of deviation

										
	N	MOE	StD	Exit	Vote	Dev	Prob  	 1 in	Favor	>MoE?
AK	910	3.31%	1.69%	40.141	36.17	-3.97%	0.9%	106	Bush	yes
AL	730	3.70%	1.89%	41.08	37.078	-4.00%	1.7%	59	Bush	yes
AR	1402	2.67%	1.36%	46.931	44.74	-2.19%	5.4%	19	Bush	
AZ	1859	2.32%	1.18%	46.596	45.027	-1.57%	9.2%	11	Bush	
CA	1919	2.28%	1.16%	55.732	55.206	-0.53%	32.6%	3	Bush	

CO	2515	1.99%	1.02%	49.072	47.349	-1.72%	4.5%	22	Bush	
CT	872	3.39%	1.73%	58.474	55.237	-3.24%	3.0%	33	Bush	
DC	795	3.55%	1.81%	91.633	90.632	-1.00%	29.0%	3	Bush	
DE	770	3.60%	1.84%	58.439	53.817	-4.62%	0.6%	167	Bush	yes
FL	2846	1.87%	0.96%	49.93	47.469	-2.46%	0.5%	199	Bush	yes

GA	1536	2.55%	1.30%	43.11	41.582	-1.53%	12.0%	8	Bush	
HI	499	4.48%	2.28%	53.32	54.373	1.05%	32.2%	3	Kerry	
IA	2502	2.00%	1.02%	50.673	49.544	-1.13%	13.4%	7	Bush	
ID	559	4.23%	2.16%	33.333	30.707	-2.63%	11.2%	9	Bush	
IL	1392	2.68%	1.37%	57.131	54.993	-2.14%	5.9%	17	Bush	

IN	926	3.29%	1.68%	40.97	39.456	-1.51%	18.3%	5	Bush	
KS	654	3.91%	2.00%	34.602	36.97	2.37%	11.8%	9	Kerry	
KY	1034	3.11%	1.59%	40.755	39.994	-0.76%	31.6%	3	Bush	
LA	1669	2.45%	1.25%	44.495	42.626	-1.87%	6.7%	15	Bush	
MA	889	3.35%	1.71%	66.463	62.701	-3.76%	1.4%	72	Bush	yes

MD	1000	3.16%	1.61%	57.038	56.249	-0.79%	31.2%	3	Bush	
ME	1968	2.25%	1.15%	54.834	54.479	-0.36%	37.9%	3	Bush	
MI	2452	2.02%	1.03%	52.551	51.734	-0.82%	21.4%	5	Bush	
MN	2178	2.14%	1.09%	54.612	51.764	-2.85%	0.5%	218	Bush	yes
MO	2158	2.15%	1.10%	47.475	46.327	-1.15%	14.8%	7	Bush	

MS	798	3.54%	1.81%	43.203	39.906	-3.30%	3.4%	29	Bush	
MT	640	3.95%	2.02%	39.282	39.505	0.22%	45.6%	2	Kerry	
NC	2167	2.15%	1.10%	47.312	43.715	-3.60%	0.1%	1939	Bush	yes
ND	649	3.93%	2.00%	33.577	36.086	2.51%	10.5%	10	Kerry	
NE	785	3.57%	1.82%	36.541	32.533	-4.01%	1.4%	72	Bush	yes

NH	1849	2.33%	1.19%	55.495	50.684	-4.81%	0.0%	39823	Bush	yes
NJ	1520	2.56%	1.31%	56.126	53.127	-3.00%	1.1%	91	Bush	yes
NM	1951	2.26%	1.16%	51.343	49.416	-1.93%	4.8%	21	Bush	
NV	2116	2.17%	1.11%	50.66	48.666	-1.99%	3.6%	28	Bush	
NY	1452	2.62%	1.34%	63.965	58.793	-5.17%	0.0%	17833	Bush	yes

OH	1963	2.26%	1.15%	52.06	48.749	-3.31%	0.2%	495	Bush	yes
OK	1539	2.55%	1.30%	34.727	34.438	-0.29%	41.2%	2	Bush	
OR	1064	3.07%	1.56%	51.223	51.969	0.75%	31.7%	3	Kerry	
PA	1930	2.28%	1.16%	54.408	51.13	-3.28%	0.2%	420	Bush	yes
RI	809	3.52%	1.79%	64.237	60.482	-3.76%	1.8%	55	Bush	yes

SC	1735	2.40%	1.22%	45.785	41.305	-4.48%	0.0%	7851	Bush	yes
SD	1495	2.59%	1.32%	37.417	39.088	1.67%	10.3%	10	Kerry	
TN	1774	2.37%	1.21%	41.153	42.78	1.63%	9.0%	11	Kerry	
TX	1671	2.45%	1.25%	36.838	38.49	1.65%	9.3%	11	Kerry	
UT	798	3.54%	1.81%	29.93	27.061	-2.87%	5.6%	18	Bush	

VA	1431	2.64%	1.35%	47.959	45.649	-2.31%	4.3%	23	Bush	
VT	685	3.82%	1.95%	65.686	60.336	-5.35%	0.3%	330	Bush	yes
WA	2123	2.17%	1.11%	55.066	53.598	-1.47%	9.2%	11	Bush	
WI	2223	2.12%	1.08%	50.214	50.199	-0.02%	49.4%	2	Bush	
WV	1722	2.41%	1.23%	45.194	43.477	-1.72%	8.1%	12	Bush	
WY	684	3.82%	1.95%	32.072	29.704	-2.37%	11.2%	9	Bush	
										
Avg	1,443	2.85%	1.46%	48.840	47.002	-1.84%	10.34%	10		16

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TruthIsAll

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Thu Feb-03-05 02:32 AM
Response to Reply #1

2. Check out: AK DE FL MN NH NY OH PA SC VT

Edited on Thu Feb-03-05 02:33 AM by TruthIsAll

The odds in each state are less than 1 in 100.

Kerry lost more votes in NY than anywhere - and yet he won it easily.

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Wilms

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Thu Feb-03-05 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. kick n/t

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FogerRox

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Thu Feb-03-05 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. yeah I know--reduce the Big Kerry states so the Bush win doesnt look so im

Edited on Thu Feb-03-05 05:04 PM by FogerRox

implausable.
The odds of Texas bouncing to Kerry 1/11 but it did. DO you think they put the fix in TX? Its safe for Bush--right--it deviated to Kerry though. Bush's HOme state---started going to Kerry? ANd you (they) want me to think that Bush won Ohio in a close race----?????
Not when Bush was losing ground in Texas.

Gore took NJ by 16% in 2000------Who turned coat and voted for Bush in 2004? Not a lot of folks--I dont think.

There was a poll-- NJ--saying Bush had a 56% to 44% lead in NJ. Then they realized the poll used a 60% repub sample--that implies that Kerry had an 8% lead in NJ. And then look at the Exit poll number in NJ--Kerry wins 56% to 44%---------12% win--gore won by 16% in 2000--thats almost not believable though far easier to see than Kerry winning by 53% to 47% a 6 point win? When gore took NJ by 16%

WAs NJ hacked? Very likely yes. My home state. GRRRRRRrrrr

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understandinglife

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Thu Feb-03-05 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #4

5. Snohomish & Yakima Counties, WA good examples of how they...

Edited on Thu Feb-03-05 04:53 PM by understandinglife

....likely did it with touchscreen devices.

Two of the early links:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=235137

http://www.velvetrevolution.us/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=3

Peace.

BE THE BU$H OPPOSITION; 24/7

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