Deviation Favor Bush? Yes. Deviation >MoE? Yes. State Flip to Bush? Yes.

[TruthIsAll]

This time we sort the states by the probability of deviation,
based on Dr. Freeman's data. And so we discover a new
statistical twist: the 27 states with the largest deviations
all favored Bush. 

The probability sort illustrates the incestuous relationship
between the exit poll deviation, the probability of occurrence
and the deviation/MoE ratio.

Below is a probability analysis of vote deviations, based on
the exit poll margin of error, using Freeman's exit poll and
vote data. Exit poll and vote percentages are adjusted to the
2-party equivalent.

Freeman's data:
42 states deviated to Bush, 16 exceeded the margin of error.
Prob = 1 - NORMDIST(15,50,.025,TRUE)
Odds = 1/Prob = 1 in 19 trillion.

My data: 
42 states deviated to Bush, 15 exceeded the margin of error.
Prob = 1 - NORMDIST(14,50,.025,TRUE)
Odds = 1/Prob = 1 in 1 trillion.

N    = exit poll sample size
MoE  = margin of error = 1/sqrt(N)
Std  = standard deviation = MOE/1.96
Exit = Kerry 2-party exit poll%
Vote = Kerry 2-party vote%
Dev  = Vote - Exit
Prob = probability of deviation


	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
	Size	MoEl	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob	1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip
NH	1849	2.33%	1.19%	55.50	50.68	-4.81%	0.0%	39823	Bush	-4.05	2.07	yes	
NY	1452	2.62%	1.34%	63.97	58.79	-5.17%	0.0%	17833	Bush	-3.86	1.97	yes	
SC	1735	2.40%	1.22%	45.79	41.31	-4.48%	0.0%	7851	Bush	-3.66	1.87	yes	
NC	2167	2.15%	1.10%	47.31	43.72	-3.60%	0.1%	1939	Bush	-3.28	1.67	yes	
OH	1963	2.26%	1.15%	52.06	48.75	-3.31%	0.2%	495	Bush	-2.88	1.47	yes	yes

PA	1930	2.28%	1.16%	54.41	51.13	-3.28%	0.2%	420	Bush	-2.82	1.44	yes	
VT	685	3.82%	1.95%	65.69	60.34	-5.35%	0.3%	330	Bush	-2.74	1.40	yes	
MN	2178	2.14%	1.09%	54.61	51.76	-2.85%	0.5%	218	Bush	-2.61	1.33	yes	
FL	2846	1.87%	0.96%	49.93	47.47	-2.46%	0.5%	199	Bush	-2.57	1.31	yes	yes
DE	770	3.60%	1.84%	58.44	53.82	-4.62%	0.6%	167	Bush	-2.51	1.28	yes	

AK	910	3.31%	1.69%	40.14	36.17	-3.97%	0.9%	106	Bush	-2.35	1.20	yes	
NJ	1520	2.56%	1.31%	56.13	53.13	-3.00%	1.1%	91	Bush	-2.29	1.17	yes	
NE	785	3.57%	1.82%	36.54	32.53	-4.01%	1.4%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
MA	889	3.35%	1.71%	66.46	62.70	-3.76%	1.4%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
AL	730	3.70%	1.89%	41.08	37.08	-4.00%	1.7%	59	Bush	-2.12	1.08	yes	

RI	809	3.52%	1.79%	64.24	60.48	-3.76%	1.8%	55	Bush	-2.09	1.07	yes	
CT	872	3.39%	1.73%	58.47	55.24	-3.24%	3.0%	33	Bush	-1.87	0.96		
MS	798	3.54%	1.81%	43.20	39.91	-3.30%	3.4%	29	Bush	-1.83	0.93		
NV	2116	2.17%	1.11%	50.66	48.67	-1.99%	3.6%	28	Bush	-1.80	0.92		yes
VA	1431	2.64%	1.35%	47.96	45.65	-2.31%	4.3%	23	Bush	-1.71	0.87		

CO	2515	1.99%	1.02%	49.07	47.35	-1.72%	4.5%	22	Bush	-1.69	0.86		
NM	1951	2.26%	1.16%	51.34	49.42	-1.93%	4.8%	21	Bush	-1.67	0.85		yes
AR	1402	2.67%	1.36%	46.93	44.74	-2.19%	5.4%	19	Bush	-1.61	0.82		
UT	798	3.54%	1.81%	29.93	27.06	-2.87%	5.6%	18	Bush	-1.59	0.81		
IL	1392	2.68%	1.37%	57.13	54.99	-2.14%	5.9%	17	Bush	-1.56	0.80		

LA	1669	2.45%	1.25%	44.50	42.63	-1.87%	6.7%	15	Bush	-1.50	0.76		
WV	1722	2.41%	1.23%	45.19	43.48	-1.72%	8.1%	12	Bush	-1.40	0.71		
TN	1774	2.37%	1.21%	41.15	42.78	1.63%	9.0%	11	Kerry	1.34	0.69		
AZ	1859	2.32%	1.18%	46.60	45.03	-1.57%	9.2%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		
WA	2123	2.17%	1.11%	55.07	53.60	-1.47%	9.2%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		

TX	1671	2.45%	1.25%	36.84	38.49	1.65%	9.3%	11	Kerry	1.32	0.68		
SD	1495	2.59%	1.32%	37.42	39.09	1.67%	10.3%	10	Kerry	1.27	0.65		
ND	649	3.93%	2.00%	33.58	36.09	2.51%	10.5%	10	Kerry	1.25	0.64		
ID	559	4.23%	2.16%	33.33	30.71	-2.63%	11.2%	9	Bush	-1.22	0.62		
WY	684	3.82%	1.95%	32.07	29.70	-2.37%	11.2%	9	Bush	-1.21	0.62		

KS	654	3.91%	2.00%	34.60	36.97	2.37%	11.8%	9	Kerry	1.19	0.61		
GA	1536	2.55%	1.30%	43.11	41.58	-1.53%	12.0%	8	Bush	-1.17	0.60		
IA	2502	2.00%	1.02%	50.67	49.54	-1.13%	13.4%	7	Bush	-1.11	0.56		yes
MO	2158	2.15%	1.10%	47.48	46.33	-1.15%	14.8%	7	Bush	-1.05	0.53		
IN	926	3.29%	1.68%	40.97	39.46	-1.51%	18.3%	5	Bush	-0.90	0.46		

MI	2452	2.02%	1.03%	52.55	51.73	-0.82%	21.4%	5	Bush	-0.79	0.40		
DC	795	3.55%	1.81%	91.63	90.63	-1.00%	29.0%	3	Bush	-0.55	0.28		
MD	1000	3.16%	1.61%	57.04	56.25	-0.79%	31.2%	3	Bush	-0.49	0.25		
KY	1034	3.11%	1.59%	40.76	39.99	-0.76%	31.6%	3	Bush	-0.48	0.24		
OR	1064	3.07%	1.56%	51.22	51.97	0.75%	31.7%	3	Kerry	0.48	0.24		

HI	499	4.48%	2.28%	53.32	54.37	1.05%	32.2%	3	Kerry	0.46	0.24		
CA	1919	2.28%	1.16%	55.73	55.21	-0.53%	32.6%	3	Bush	-0.45	0.23		
ME	1968	2.25%	1.15%	54.83	54.48	-0.36%	37.9%	3	Bush	-0.31	0.16		
OK	1539	2.55%	1.30%	34.73	34.44	-0.29%	41.2%	2	Bush	-0.22	0.11		
MT	640	3.95%	2.02%	39.28	39.51	0.22%	45.6%	2	Kerry	0.11	0.06
WI	2223	2.12%	1.08%	50.21	50.20	-0.02%	49.4%	2	Bush	-0.01	0.01		
													
Avg	1,443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10		-1.33	0.83	16	
Med	1,495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15		-1.50	0.76		

[super simian]

1. Kick n/t

[The Doctor.]

2. Thank you.

It's really quite neat, I'm in a position where in social discourse I can occaisonally slip in, "Oh yes, Ohio was rampant with election fraud. Just look at the correlations."

I have 'Bush' friends who, because they are friends will treat any statement in earnest.

So they listen long enough to hear the two succinct examples I've honed 'matter-of-factly' and usually give non-committal responses.

I have little doubt that part of the message seeps in.

[berniew1]

3. Documented fraud and manipulation support the exit poll results

Widespread systematic vote machine fraud;
and dirty tricks and suppression of minority registration and voting in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Pennsylvania through manipulation of registration, absentee ballots, and provisional ballots; and similar in at least 20 states in 2004 Election:
summary of some of the documentation

http://www.flcv.com/usssumall.html


the other analysts studies like Freeman, Houts, Phillips, etc. links are included in my summary

[msongs]

4. collusion in New mexico with governor richardson, a dem.....:-(

not a guy we want on our side. hope dnc chair howard dean gives him a good tongue lashing.....or worse.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[Melissa G]

8. link not working n/t

[m.standridge]

14. The link given has too many "s"s.

It's "us-sue 'em all", in other words.
This is all interesting data.
I don't know how much the exit polls were off--they seem to be off some.
I wonder if it isn't, as has been suggested, more on a state-by-state level examination that the polls get the most interesting.
It could be the nationwide data is a little more unreliable than usual, but when that is broken down by state, it might even be more reliable than ever before?
Like--how many states did Kerry carry, in actuality? We know there have been quetions raised about Florida, New Mexico and Nevada as well as Ohio. There were things about Colorado and Arkansas, and there have been stories about the tallies in North Carolina, Louisiana, and some others states, including some of the states Kerry is listed officially as carrying, such as PA, as to what the actual tallies were (that is, that the tallies were more favorable to Bush than exit polls suggested.)
So, how many Electoral votes did Kerry get? 252 plus Ohio = 272, plus New Mexico, = 277 plus NV = 282. Then, there's Iowa, 7 = 291; Florida, 27 = 318; CO 9= 327 AR 6 = 333.
There's an awful lot more to suggest Kerry carried those, than the others, that aren't listed as him carrying them. Well, I'm just trying to think out, if the real message here, may be that Bush was cheating in just a few states, in reality, while in others, it really was computer glitches or bad equipment. In other words, Bush felt sure he had a Popular vote lead, (and many pre-election polls were back and forth in the final days), but was just trying to "make sure" in the Electoral College, so he fudged a little bit in those states above, to make sure he carried them all. Because, any one of Ohio or Florida, or any combination of three of CO, NV and NM or AR IA and NM, could have put Kerry over in the Electoral College, without a Popular lead.
Could it be that the Popular lead, is the real "clue" here?
It made it, maybe, more tempting for Bush to cheat just in a few states, to make sure it was going to work out in the Electoral numbers.
This may be an "in between" argument--maybe the worst place of all to be. But maybe those strong points of the pro-exit pollsters (as to the polls being where the errors were) and the strong points of the pro-election error advocates (as to the error being on the election equipment and records end), are best balanced out this way.
That still leaves Bush in hot water, since it means he still didn't really win the election, since he didn't really win in the Electoral College without cheating.
But this may be an idea the DNC doesn't want to look at too hard, what with all that rhetoric of past few years about abolishing the Electoral College. That, in turn, may be one of the best explanations of why more DNC-influenced Dem. Sens. didn't join Boxer--or get it to the point of a filibuster. What if it had all boiled down to an Electoral-only win for Kerry?
Meanwhile, we still have to contend with this very formidable computer rigging possibility.

[TruthIsAll]

5. Average deviation to Bush (42 states+DC): 2.46%; Kerry (8 states): 1.48%

	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	
	Size	MoEl	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob	1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip


Avg	1,443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10		-1.33	0.83		
Med	1,495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15		-1.50	0.76		
											
Bavg	1515	2.76%	1.41%	50.31	47.86	-2.46%	10.23%	10	43	-1.75	0.891	16	5
Kavg	1056	3.34%	1.71%	40.93	42.41	1.48%	20.04%	5	8	0.93	0.473	1	0

[Mistwell]

6. Psst.

Washington DC is not a state.

Sorry to break it to you.

[TruthIsAll]

7. Thanks. I didn't know that. n/t

.

[davidgmills]

9. Why do you pander to this guy?

Blow him off. I have.

[TruthIsAll]

10. Why blow him off? He is just being helpful...isn't he? n/t

.

[super simian]

11. kick n/t

[Wilms]

12. Kick for data n/t

[TruthIsAll]

13. This is why we need exit polls... n/t

.

[TruthIsAll]

15. Sat Kick

.