The EAST was the BEAST: Time Zone Exit Poll Discrepancy Analysis

[TruthIsAll]

This is an Exit Poll Analysis by Time Zone, using Freeman's
data converted to the 2-party equivalent.

The vast bulk of the damage was done in the East.

Eastern:
ALL 23 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.77%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8,388,608

12 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 16 Trillion

Central:
11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.08%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 10

3 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 146

Mountain:
6 of 7 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.18%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 16

None deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 1.2 (84%)

Pacific:
3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.99%
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 2

1 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8 



	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
St	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip

Eastern
NH	1849	2.33%	1.19%	55.50	50.68	-4.81%	0.0%	39823	Bush	-4.05	2.07	yes	
NY	1452	2.62%	1.34%	63.97	58.79	-5.17%	0.0%	17833	Bush	-3.86	1.97	yes	
SC	1735	2.40%	1.22%	45.79	41.31	-4.48%	0.0%	7851	Bush	-3.66	1.87	yes	
NC	2167	2.15%	1.10%	47.31	43.72	-3.60%	0.1%	1939	Bush	-3.28	1.67	yes	
OH	1963	2.26%	1.15%	52.06	48.75	-3.31%	0.2%	495	Bush	-2.88	1.47	yes	yes

PA	1930	2.28%	1.16%	54.41	51.13	-3.28%	0.2%	420	Bush	-2.82	1.44	yes	
VT	685	3.82%	1.95%	65.69	60.34	-5.35%	0.3%	330	Bush	-2.74	1.40	yes	
FL	2846	1.87%	0.96%	49.93	47.47	-2.46%	0.5%	199	Bush	-2.57	1.31	yes	yes
DE	770	3.60%	1.84%	58.44	53.82	-4.62%	0.6%	167	Bush	-2.51	1.28	yes	
NJ	1520	2.56%	1.31%	56.13	53.13	-3.00%	1.1%	91	Bush	-2.29	1.17	yes	

MA	889	3.35%	1.71%	66.46	62.70	-3.76%	1.4%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
RI	809	3.52%	1.79%	64.24	60.48	-3.76%	1.8%	55	Bush	-2.09	1.07	yes	
CT	872	3.39%	1.73%	58.47	55.24	-3.24%	3.0%	33	Bush	-1.87	0.96		
NV	2116	2.17%	1.11%	50.66	48.67	-1.99%	3.6%	28	Bush	-1.80	0.92		yes
VA	1431	2.64%	1.35%	47.96	45.65	-2.31%	4.3%	23	Bush	-1.71	0.87		

WV	1722	2.41%	1.23%	45.19	43.48	-1.72%	8.1%	12	Bush	-1.40	0.71		
GA	1536	2.55%	1.30%	43.11	41.58	-1.53%	12.0%	8	Bush	-1.17	0.60		
IN	926	3.29%	1.68%	40.97	39.46	-1.51%	18.3%	5	Bush	-0.90	0.46		
MI	2452	2.02%	1.03%	52.55	51.73	-0.82%	21.4%	5	Bush	-0.79	0.40		
DC	795	3.55%	1.81%	91.63	90.63	-1.00%	29.0%	3	Bush	-0.55	0.28		

MD	1000	3.16%	1.61%	57.04	56.25	-0.79%	31.2%	3	Bush	-0.49	0.25		
KY	1034	3.11%	1.59%	40.76	39.99	-0.76%	31.6%	3	Bush	-0.48	0.24		
ME	1968	2.25%	1.15%	54.83	54.48	-0.36%	37.9%	3	Bush	-0.31	0.16		

Central
MN	2178	2.14%	1.09%	54.61	51.76	-2.85%	0.5%	218	Bush	-2.61	1.33	yes	
NE	785	3.57%	1.82%	36.54	32.53	-4.01%	1.4%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
AL	730	3.70%	1.89%	41.08	37.08	-4.00%	1.7%	59	Bush	-2.12	1.08	yes	
MS	798	3.54%	1.81%	43.20	39.91	-3.30%	3.4%	29	Bush	-1.83	0.93		
AR	1402	2.67%	1.36%	46.93	44.74	-2.19%	5.4%	19	Bush	-1.61	0.82		

IL	1392	2.68%	1.37%	57.13	54.99	-2.14%	5.9%	17	Bush	-1.56	0.80		
LA	1669	2.45%	1.25%	44.50	42.63	-1.87%	6.7%	15	Bush	-1.50	0.76		
IA	2502	2.00%	1.02%	50.67	49.54	-1.13%	13.4%	7	Bush	-1.11	0.56		yes
MO	2158	2.15%	1.10%	47.48	46.33	-1.15%	14.8%	7	Bush	-1.05	0.53		
OK	1539	2.55%	1.30%	34.73	34.44	-0.29%	41.2%	2	Bush	-0.22	0.11		

WI	2223	2.12%	1.08%	50.21	50.20	-0.02%	49.4%	2	Bush	-0.01	0.01		
TN	1774	2.37%	1.21%	41.15	42.78	1.63%	9.0%	11	Kerry	1.34	0.69		
TX	1671	2.45%	1.25%	36.84	38.49	1.65%	9.3%	11	Kerry	1.32	0.68		
SD	1495	2.59%	1.32%	37.42	39.09	1.67%	10.3%	10	Kerry	1.27	0.65		
ND	649	3.93%	2.00%	33.58	36.09	2.51%	10.5%	10	Kerry	1.25	0.64		

KS	654	3.91%	2.00%	34.60	36.97	2.37%	11.8%	9	Kerry	1.19	0.61		

Mountain
CO	2515	1.99%	1.02%	49.07	47.35	-1.72%	4.5%	22	Bush	-1.69	0.86		
NM	1951	2.26%	1.16%	51.34	49.42	-1.93%	4.8%	21	Bush	-1.67	0.85		yes
UT	798	3.54%	1.81%	29.93	27.06	-2.87%	5.6%	18	Bush	-1.59	0.81		
AZ	1859	2.32%	1.18%	46.60	45.03	-1.57%	9.2%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		
ID	559	4.23%	2.16%	33.33	30.71	-2.63%	11.2%	9	Bush	-1.22	0.62		

WY	684	3.82%	1.95%	32.07	29.70	-2.37%	11.2%	9	Bush	-1.21	0.62		
MT	640	3.95%	2.02%	39.28	39.51	0.22%	45.6%	2	Kerry	0.11	0.06		

Pacific
AK	910	3.31%	1.69%	40.14	36.17	-3.97%	0.9%	106	Bush	-2.35	1.20	yes	
WA	2123	2.17%	1.11%	55.07	53.60	-1.47%	9.2%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		
CA	1919	2.28%	1.16%	55.73	55.21	-0.53%	32.6%	3	Bush	-0.45	0.23		
OR	1064	3.07%	1.56%	51.22	51.97	0.75%	31.7%	3	Kerry	0.48	0.24		
HI	499	4.48%	2.28%	53.32	54.37	1.05%	32.2%	3	Kerry	0.46	0.24		
												

	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip

Total 
Avg	1,443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10		-1.33	0.83		
Med	1,495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15		-1.50	0.76		
													
Bavg	1516	2.75%	1.40%	49.55	47.58	-1.97%	9.90%	10	43	-1.45	0.88	16	5
Kavg	1050	3.41%	1.74%	45.02	43.90	-1.12%	21.84%	5	8	-0.69	0.48	1	0
													
Region (Deviations are for Bush alone)
East	1499	2.75%	1.40%	54.92	52.15	-2.77%	8.99%	3017	23	-2.02	1.03	12	3
Cent	1580	2.69%	1.37%	46.10	44.01	-2.08%	13.08%	41	11	-1.44	0.73	3	1
Mount	1394	3.03%	1.55%	40.39	38.21	-2.18%	7.76%	15	6	-1.45	0.74	0	1
Pac	1651	2.59%	1.32%	50.31	48.32	-1.99%	14.26%	40	3	-1.38	0.70	1	0

[bleever]

1. What implications come to mind for you, TIA?

[TruthIsAll]

4. Implications.

1- Jump quickly ahead in the popular vote, even though the exit polls say otherwise. Show that Bush is winning big as those early totals flash on the screen.

2- Like Willie Sutton.
Go East, that's where the Democratic votes are.

3- Ohio and Florida are key.
Need both for their electoral votes.

4- As long as Ohio and Florida are in the bag, no problem.

[bleever]

6. Of course.

You're exactly right. Hence the way the red shift shows up in a few surprising small-prize east coast states.

Do you have a graph of this yet?

The proportions between time zones are astounding.

[TruthIsAll]

17. THE GRAPH

[bleever]

18. TIA: would you now be so kind as to graph this as total votes,

to reflect the true magnitude of the differential shift between time zones?

It might reflect the enormity of the shift better than using percentages as the y-axis.

Thank You!

[TruthIsAll]

23. GRAPH: Time Zone Deviations in Total Votes

[myschkin]

26. Would

be great if you could mark the battleground-states with red...

[seaclyr]

48. Bush did jump ahead early in the popular vote

At 8:17 p.m. EST with 5% of the popular vote in, Bush was up by a massive 13.2% over Kerry. Contrast that with 8:20 p.m EST in the 2000 election, again with 5% of the popular vote in, where Bush was up by 9.6% over Gore. Early high red numbers aren't unusual because there are a lot of red states where the polls close early, but to be up 3.6% over 2000 figures I think is just about unbelievable.

[TruthIsAll]

19. Correction: NV in wrong region, recalc averages

This is an Exit Poll Analysis by Time Zone, using Freeman's
data converted to the 2-party equivalent (Bush+Kerry=100%).

The vast bulk of the damage was done in the East.

Eastern:
ALL 22 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.80%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 4.2 million

12 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 32.5 Trillion

Central:
11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.82%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 10

3 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 146

Mountain:
7 of 8 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.86%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 28

None deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 1.22 (82%)

Pacific:
3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.83%
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 2

1 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8 



	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
St	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip

EASTERN
NH	1849	2.33%	1.19%	55.50	50.68	-4.81%	0.00%	39823	Bush	-4.05	2.07	yes	
NY	1452	2.62%	1.34%	63.97	58.79	-5.17%	0.01%	17833	Bush	-3.86	1.97	yes	
SC	1735	2.40%	1.22%	45.79	41.31	-4.48%	0.01%	7851	Bush	-3.66	1.87	yes	
NC	2167	2.15%	1.10%	47.31	43.72	-3.60%	0.05%	1939	Bush	-3.28	1.67	yes	
OH	1963	2.26%	1.15%	52.06	48.75	-3.31%	0.20%	495	Bush	-2.88	1.47	yes	yes

PA	1930	2.28%	1.16%	54.41	51.13	-3.28%	0.24%	420	Bush	-2.82	1.44	yes	
VT	685	3.82%	1.95%	65.69	60.34	-5.35%	0.30%	330	Bush	-2.74	1.40	yes	
FL	2846	1.87%	0.96%	49.93	47.47	-2.46%	0.50%	199	Bush	-2.57	1.31	yes	yes
DE	770	3.60%	1.84%	58.44	53.82	-4.62%	0.60%	167	Bush	-2.51	1.28	yes	
NJ	1520	2.56%	1.31%	56.13	53.13	-3.00%	1.10%	91	Bush	-2.29	1.17	yes	

MA	889	3.35%	1.71%	66.46	62.70	-3.76%	1.40%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
RI	809	3.52%	1.79%	64.24	60.48	-3.76%	1.82%	55	Bush	-2.09	1.07	yes	
CT	872	3.39%	1.73%	58.47	55.24	-3.24%	3.05%	33	Bush	-1.87	0.96		
VA	1431	2.64%	1.35%	47.96	45.65	-2.31%	4.34%	23	Bush	-1.71	0.87		
WV	1722	2.41%	1.23%	45.19	43.48	-1.72%	8.13%	12	Bush	-1.40	0.71		

GA	1536	2.55%	1.30%	43.11	41.58	-1.53%	12.02%	8	Bush	-1.17	0.60		
IN	926	3.29%	1.68%	40.97	39.46	-1.51%	18.33%	5	Bush	-0.90	0.46		
MI	2452	2.02%	1.03%	52.55	51.73	-0.82%	21.39%	5	Bush	-0.79	0.40		
DC	795	3.55%	1.81%	91.63	90.63	-1.00%	29.01%	3	Bush	-0.55	0.28		
MD	1000	3.16%	1.61%	57.04	56.25	-0.79%	31.24%	3	Bush	-0.49	0.25		

KY	1034	3.11%	1.59%	40.76	39.99	-0.76%	31.57%	3	Bush	-0.48	0.24		
ME	1968	2.25%	1.15%	54.83	54.48	-0.36%	37.88%	3	Bush	-0.31	0.16		
											
CENTRAL
MN	2178	2.14%	1.09%	54.61	51.76	-2.85%	0.46%	218	Bush	-2.61	1.33	yes	
NE	785	3.57%	1.82%	36.54	32.53	-4.01%	1.39%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
AL	730	3.70%	1.89%	41.08	37.08	-4.00%	1.70%	59	Bush	-2.12	1.08	yes	
MS	798	3.54%	1.81%	43.20	39.91	-3.30%	3.40%	29	Bush	-1.83	0.93		
AR	1402	2.67%	1.36%	46.93	44.74	-2.19%	5.39%	19	Bush	-1.61	0.82		

IL	1392	2.68%	1.37%	57.13	54.99	-2.14%	5.90%	17	Bush	-1.56	0.80		
LA	1669	2.45%	1.25%	44.50	42.63	-1.87%	6.73%	15	Bush	-1.50	0.76		
IA	2502	2.00%	1.02%	50.67	49.54	-1.13%	13.42%	7	Bush	-1.11	0.56		yes
MO	2158	2.15%	1.10%	47.48	46.33	-1.15%	14.80%	7	Bush	-1.05	0.53		
OK	1539	2.55%	1.30%	34.73	34.44	-0.29%	41.21%	2	Bush	-0.22	0.11		

WI	2223	2.12%	1.08%	50.21	50.20	-0.02%	49.45%	2	Bush	-0.01	0.01		
TN	1774	2.37%	1.21%	41.15	42.78	1.63%	8.96%	11	Kerry	1.34	0.69		
TX	1671	2.45%	1.25%	36.84	38.49	1.65%	9.28%	11	Kerry	1.32	0.68		
SD	1495	2.59%	1.32%	37.42	39.09	1.67%	10.27%	10	Kerry	1.27	0.65		
ND	649	3.93%	2.00%	33.58	36.09	2.51%	10.51%	10	Kerry	1.25	0.64		

KS	654	3.91%	2.00%	34.60	36.97	2.37%	11.76%	9	Kerry	1.19	0.61		
											
MOUNTAIN
NV	2116	2.17%	1.11%	50.66	48.67	-1.99%	3.61%	28	Bush	-1.80	0.92		yes
CO	2515	1.99%	1.02%	49.07	47.35	-1.72%	4.52%	22	Bush	-1.69	0.86		
NM	1951	2.26%	1.16%	51.34	49.42	-1.93%	4.76%	21	Bush	-1.67	0.85		yes
UT	798	3.54%	1.81%	29.93	27.06	-2.87%	5.61%	18	Bush	-1.59	0.81		
AZ	1859	2.32%	1.18%	46.60	45.03	-1.57%	9.24%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		

ID	559	4.23%	2.16%	33.33	30.71	-2.63%	11.18%	9	Bush	-1.22	0.62		
WY	684	3.82%	1.95%	32.07	29.70	-2.37%	11.24%	9	Bush	-1.21	0.62		
MT	640	3.95%	2.02%	39.28	39.51	0.22%	45.60%	2	Kerry	0.11	0.06		
											
PACIFIC
AK	910	3.31%	1.69%	40.14	36.17	-3.97%	0.94%	106	Bush	-2.35	1.20	yes	
WA	2123	2.17%	1.11%	55.07	53.60	-1.47%	9.25%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		
CA	1919	2.28%	1.16%	55.73	55.21	-0.53%	32.58%	3	Bush	-0.45	0.23		
OR	1064	3.07%	1.56%	51.22	51.97	0.75%	31.67%	3	Kerry	0.48	0.24		
HI	499	4.48%	2.28%	53.32	54.37	1.05%	32.24%	3	Kerry	0.46	0.24		
													

	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip
Total
Avg	1443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10	0	-1.33	0.83		
Med	1495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15	0	-1.50	0.76		

Average											
Bush	1429	2.87%	1.47%	50.58	48.20	-2.38%	10.33%	10	43	-1.69	0.89	16	5
Kerry	1520	2.76%	1.41%	39.50	40.55	1.05%	19.53%	5	8	0.64	0.49	1	0
													
Region (average deviations are for Bush only)
East	1471	2.78%	1.42%	55.11	52.31	-2.80%	9.24%	3153	22	-2.03	1.04	12	3
Cent	1476	2.80%	1.43%	43.17	42.35	-0.82%	12.16%	31	11	-0.59	0.71	3	1
Mount	1390	3.04%	1.55%	41.54	39.68	-1.86%	11.97%	15	7	-1.30	0.68	0	1
Pac	1303	3.06%	1.56%	51.10	50.26	-0.83%	21.34%	25	3	-0.64	0.52	1	0
													
Reg   No.	>MOE	Prob:1 in	 ToBush	  Prob							
East	22	12	32.5trillion   22	  4,194,304				
Cent	16	3	146	         11	  10
Mount	8	0	1	          7	  28
Pac	5	1	8	          3	   2

[TruthIsAll]

21. Summary of Deviations

	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
St	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip
Avg	1,443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10		-1.33	0.83		
Med	1,495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15		-1.50	0.76		
											
Average of 43 states (incl DC) which favor Bush:
NPoll MOE   Std
1483	2.81%	1.43%	

Vote: 50.40%;Poll 48.09%; Dev= +2.31% 
Prob: 1 in 2,060,491 

16 states exceeded MOE
5 states flip


Average of 8 states which favor Kerry:
NPoll MOE   Std
1056	3.34%	1.71%	

Vote: 40.93; Poll	42.41; Dev	1.48%	
Prob: 1 in 3 

1 state exceeded MOE
None flip 

[TruthIsAll]

29. THIS IS THE FINAL CORRECTED ANALYSIS

This is an Exit Poll Analysis by Time Zone, using Freeman's
data converted to the 2-party equivalent (Bush+Kerry=100%).

The vast bulk of the damage was done in the East.

Eastern:
ALL 22 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.80%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 4.2 million

12 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 32.5 Trillion

Central:
11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.82%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 10

3 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 146

Mountain:
7 of 8 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.86%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 28

None deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 1.22 (82%)

Pacific:
3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.83%
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 2

1 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8 



	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
St	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip

EASTERN
NH	1849	2.33%	1.19%	55.50	50.68	-4.81%	0.00%	39823	Bush	-4.05	2.07	yes	
NY	1452	2.62%	1.34%	63.97	58.79	-5.17%	0.01%	17833	Bush	-3.86	1.97	yes	
SC	1735	2.40%	1.22%	45.79	41.31	-4.48%	0.01%	7851	Bush	-3.66	1.87	yes	
NC	2167	2.15%	1.10%	47.31	43.72	-3.60%	0.05%	1939	Bush	-3.28	1.67	yes	
OH	1963	2.26%	1.15%	52.06	48.75	-3.31%	0.20%	495	Bush	-2.88	1.47	yes	yes

PA	1930	2.28%	1.16%	54.41	51.13	-3.28%	0.24%	420	Bush	-2.82	1.44	yes	
VT	685	3.82%	1.95%	65.69	60.34	-5.35%	0.30%	330	Bush	-2.74	1.40	yes	
FL	2846	1.87%	0.96%	49.93	47.47	-2.46%	0.50%	199	Bush	-2.57	1.31	yes	yes
DE	770	3.60%	1.84%	58.44	53.82	-4.62%	0.60%	167	Bush	-2.51	1.28	yes	
NJ	1520	2.56%	1.31%	56.13	53.13	-3.00%	1.10%	91	Bush	-2.29	1.17	yes	

MA	889	3.35%	1.71%	66.46	62.70	-3.76%	1.40%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
RI	809	3.52%	1.79%	64.24	60.48	-3.76%	1.82%	55	Bush	-2.09	1.07	yes	
CT	872	3.39%	1.73%	58.47	55.24	-3.24%	3.05%	33	Bush	-1.87	0.96		
VA	1431	2.64%	1.35%	47.96	45.65	-2.31%	4.34%	23	Bush	-1.71	0.87		
WV	1722	2.41%	1.23%	45.19	43.48	-1.72%	8.13%	12	Bush	-1.40	0.71		

GA	1536	2.55%	1.30%	43.11	41.58	-1.53%	12.02%	8	Bush	-1.17	0.60		
IN	926	3.29%	1.68%	40.97	39.46	-1.51%	18.33%	5	Bush	-0.90	0.46		
MI	2452	2.02%	1.03%	52.55	51.73	-0.82%	21.39%	5	Bush	-0.79	0.40		
DC	795	3.55%	1.81%	91.63	90.63	-1.00%	29.01%	3	Bush	-0.55	0.28		
MD	1000	3.16%	1.61%	57.04	56.25	-0.79%	31.24%	3	Bush	-0.49	0.25		

KY	1034	3.11%	1.59%	40.76	39.99	-0.76%	31.57%	3	Bush	-0.48	0.24		
ME	1968	2.25%	1.15%	54.83	54.48	-0.36%	37.88%	3	Bush	-0.31	0.16		
											
CENTRAL
MN	2178	2.14%	1.09%	54.61	51.76	-2.85%	0.46%	218	Bush	-2.61	1.33	yes	
NE	785	3.57%	1.82%	36.54	32.53	-4.01%	1.39%	72	Bush	-2.20	1.12	yes	
AL	730	3.70%	1.89%	41.08	37.08	-4.00%	1.70%	59	Bush	-2.12	1.08	yes	
MS	798	3.54%	1.81%	43.20	39.91	-3.30%	3.40%	29	Bush	-1.83	0.93		
AR	1402	2.67%	1.36%	46.93	44.74	-2.19%	5.39%	19	Bush	-1.61	0.82		

IL	1392	2.68%	1.37%	57.13	54.99	-2.14%	5.90%	17	Bush	-1.56	0.80		
LA	1669	2.45%	1.25%	44.50	42.63	-1.87%	6.73%	15	Bush	-1.50	0.76		
IA	2502	2.00%	1.02%	50.67	49.54	-1.13%	13.42%	7	Bush	-1.11	0.56		yes
MO	2158	2.15%	1.10%	47.48	46.33	-1.15%	14.80%	7	Bush	-1.05	0.53		
OK	1539	2.55%	1.30%	34.73	34.44	-0.29%	41.21%	2	Bush	-0.22	0.11		

WI	2223	2.12%	1.08%	50.21	50.20	-0.02%	49.45%	2	Bush	-0.01	0.01		
TN	1774	2.37%	1.21%	41.15	42.78	1.63%	8.96%	11	Kerry	1.34	0.69		
TX	1671	2.45%	1.25%	36.84	38.49	1.65%	9.28%	11	Kerry	1.32	0.68		
SD	1495	2.59%	1.32%	37.42	39.09	1.67%	10.27%	10	Kerry	1.27	0.65		
ND	649	3.93%	2.00%	33.58	36.09	2.51%	10.51%	10	Kerry	1.25	0.64		

KS	654	3.91%	2.00%	34.60	36.97	2.37%	11.76%	9	Kerry	1.19	0.61		
											
MOUNTAIN
NV	2116	2.17%	1.11%	50.66	48.67	-1.99%	3.61%	28	Bush	-1.80	0.92		yes
CO	2515	1.99%	1.02%	49.07	47.35	-1.72%	4.52%	22	Bush	-1.69	0.86		
NM	1951	2.26%	1.16%	51.34	49.42	-1.93%	4.76%	21	Bush	-1.67	0.85		yes
UT	798	3.54%	1.81%	29.93	27.06	-2.87%	5.61%	18	Bush	-1.59	0.81		
AZ	1859	2.32%	1.18%	46.60	45.03	-1.57%	9.24%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		

ID	559	4.23%	2.16%	33.33	30.71	-2.63%	11.18%	9	Bush	-1.22	0.62		
WY	684	3.82%	1.95%	32.07	29.70	-2.37%	11.24%	9	Bush	-1.21	0.62		
MT	640	3.95%	2.02%	39.28	39.51	0.22%	45.60%	2	Kerry	0.11	0.06		
											
PACIFIC
AK	910	3.31%	1.69%	40.14	36.17	-3.97%	0.94%	106	Bush	-2.35	1.20	yes	
WA	2123	2.17%	1.11%	55.07	53.60	-1.47%	9.25%	11	Bush	-1.33	0.68		
CA	1919	2.28%	1.16%	55.73	55.21	-0.53%	32.58%	3	Bush	-0.45	0.23		
OR	1064	3.07%	1.56%	51.22	51.97	0.75%	31.67%	3	Kerry	0.48	0.24		
HI	499	4.48%	2.28%	53.32	54.37	1.05%	32.24%	3	Kerry	0.46	0.24		
													

	Poll	Poll	Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Odds	Dev	Dev/	Dev/	Dev>	Bush
	Size	MoE	Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 1in	Favor	Std	MoE	MoE	Flip
Total
Avg	1443	2.85%	1.46%	48.84	47.00	-1.84%	10.34%	10	0	-1.33	0.83		
Med	1495	2.59%	1.32%	49.07	47.35	-1.93%	6.73%	15	0	-1.50	0.76		

TOTAL AVERAGE										
Bush	1429	2.87%	1.47%	50.58	48.20	-2.38%	10.33%	10	43	-1.69	0.89	16	5
Kerry	1520	2.76%	1.41%	39.50	40.55	1.05%	19.53%	5	8	0.64	0.49	1	0
											
BUSH DEVIATIONS BY REGION	
East	1471	2.78%	1.42%	55.11	52.31	-2.80%	9.24%	3153	22	-2.03	1.04	12	2
Cent	1476	2.80%	1.43%	43.17	42.35	-0.82%	12.16%	31	11	-0.59	0.71	3	1
Mount	1390	3.04%	1.55%	41.54	39.68	-1.86%	11.97%	15	7	-1.30	0.68	0	2
Pac	1303	3.06%	1.56%	51.10	50.26	-0.83%	21.34%	25	3	-0.64	0.52	1	0
												
BUSH DEVIATION PROBABILITIES BY REGION	
      No.	>MOE	Probability	 ToBush  Prob				
East	22	12	32.5 trillion  22	  4.2 mil.				
Cent	16	3	146	         11	  10
Mount	8	0	1	          7	  28
Pac	5	1	8	          3	   2


BUSH DEVIATION SUMMARY 
Average of the 43 states (incl DC) which favored Bush:
NPoll MOE   Std
1483	2.81%	1.43%	

Vote: 50.40%
Poll: 48.09%
Dev :  2.31% 
Probability: 1 in 2.06 million 

16 states exceeded MOE

5 states flip

KERRY DEVIATION SUMMARY 
Average of the 8 states which favored Kerry:
NPoll MOE   Std
1056	3.34%	1.71%	

Poll: 40.93 
Vote: 42.41  
Dev : 1.48%	
Probability: 1 in 3 

1 state exceeded MOE
None flipped 

[TruthIsAll]

34. EXIT POLL DEVIATIONS: FOUR TIME ZONE GRAPHS

Bar Chart
Time Zone Exit Poll Percentage Deviations


Bar Chart
Exit Poll Vote Deviations


Pie Chart
Eastern Time Zone Vote Deviations


Pie Chart
Time Zone Vote Deviation Totals

[TruthIsAll]

41. 2/7/05 Fix: Kerry to Bush Average Deviation Summary by Time Zone

The Eastern Zone was correct, the other three regions were
off.
Again, these are averages for the states within the time zone
which deviated to Bush. 


Zone	MOE     Std	Exit	Final	Vote	Dev	Dev/	Dev/
Average	        Dev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 	MoE	Std

EASTERN 2.78	1.42	55.11	52.31	-2.80%	9.24%	-1.01	-1.97
CENTRAL 2.69	1.37	46.1	44.01	-2.09%	13.08%	-0.78	-1.53
MOUNTAIN2.90	1.48	41.86	39.71	-2.15%	7.17%	-0.74	-1.45
PACIFIC 2.59	1.32	50.31	48.33	-1.99%	14.26%	-0.77	-1.51


Eastern:
ALL 22 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.80%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 4.2 million

12 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 32.5 Trillion

Central:
11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.09%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 10

3 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 146

Mountain:
7 of 8 states deviated to Bush by an average of 2.15%.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 28

None deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 1.22 (82%)

Pacific:
3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.99%
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 2

1 deviated beyond the MOE.
The odds of this occurrence:
1 in 8 

[TruthIsAll]

45. VOTE DEVIATIONS BY TIME ZONE TO BUSH AND KERRY

 
Time	Dev	 Exit	Final	Vote	Vote
Zone	to:	 Poll	Vote	PctDev Dev
East	Bush-22	 55.11	52.31	-2.80%	-1724
					
Cent	Bush-11	 46.10	44.01	-2.08%	-467
	Kerry-5	 36.72	38.68	1.97%	 203
					
Moun	Bush -7	 41.86	39.70	-2.15%	-130
	Kerry-1	 39.28	39.51	0.22%    1
					
Pac	Bush -3	 50.31	48.32	-1.99%	-118
	Kerry-2	 52.27	53.17	0.90%	 18
					
Total	Bush-43	 48.34	46.09	-2.26%	-2439
	Kerry-8	 42.76	43.79	1.03%	  222
 

[rzemanfl]

2. Looks to me like they stole the most votes where they needed to

steal the most votes. It has also occurred to me that toward the end of the campaign * started advertising and campaigning in states he had been felt to have no hope in. I am wondering if this was in response to their getting word that the hack had been successful, making it necessary that they do something to make it less obvious when it happened.

[FreedomAngel82]

37. That doesn't make any sense to me

Why would he do that? Why not spend time in the places where he was weak in but not hopeless? I still remember him "reaching" out to democrats and asking for our votes. Haha. After him keeping us out of his rally's and stuff I don't think so. But that is strange. Did he go to Ohio or Florida much?

[rdmccur]

3. This analysis indicates a trend

consistent with intentional fraud. Once the necessary votes were secured, continued vote switching no longer required (part of the plan).

[rdmccur]

5. May I send this to someone in Ohio

Working with Arnebeck et al?

[TruthIsAll]

8. Yes, maybe they have not analyzed it this way. n/t

.

[brindis_desala]

7. We had a lot of reports in New York State of machines defaulting to Bush

and insufficient or unreliable machines, but of course almost exclusively in heavily Democratic precincts (the latter particularly Brooklyn.) I think we have some very dirty hands at work this is a national disgrace that transcends party affiliation.

[icehenge]

9. My interruption

Your time zone break down clearly shows something strange.

My thought, the polls ended first on the east coast, ET time zone.
Maybe the persons responsible for the vote rigging thought lets
get this "group" set, then well have more time to fiddle with
other time zones. Figuring at the very least they could change
the west coast PC time zone group an hour or so later if they
miscalculated somewhere else.

[FreedomAngel82]

38. Just me wondering but

did Fox call Ohio for Bush later that evening like they did last year with Florida? I do remember watching CNN on election night and I remember them not calling it for Bush yet.

[janalfi]

10. The New Hampshire vote . . .

was the furthest off from the exit polls. Yet I didn't hear about any big discrepancies after the Nader recount (and NH has all paper ballots by law). Sorry if it's been discussed elsewhere but did the NH spot recount turn up anything suggesting that the actual vote was closer to exit poll results?

[Chi]

11. I saw a post...

I saw a post from Ida recently, in which she stated that a number of the poll books were not made available. I think she said that several were reported missing/lost (a little suspicious at LEAST). She felt ballot box stuffing was at the root of it, and doing a recount will not bring that to light without poll books to match voters to votes.

If I find the link I'll post it for you...if your interested.

[janalfi]

12. Yes, I'm interested . . .

There was very little coverage of the recount and I have been curious about it since I was at one of the sites (Newton, NH) for which a recount was requested during the primary election.

[Chi]

13. Here ya go

#83
www.invisibleida.com, where I talk about the PUBLIC stuff. Privately, it appears that old fashioned ballot stuffing was the chosen method in New Hampshire. Did we gather all of the evidence? No -- back to that "time and resource" thing. But the Secretary of State in New Hampshire is a very smart guy; when presented with the numbers, AND the details, he was very interested. (Missing and/or unreachable poll books in two precincts we were recounting was the number one clue.) He seemed to be a man of integrity to me, and I hope he will take care of stuff. Oh, and the AMAZING voter turnout was also kind of ... interesting ... in the 84% area. (eye roll)

Then again, the numbers MAY be correct, with more people getting to know the Democrat leadership folks in New Hampshire, and thus voting against them! (That's a burn on a guy named Mike, just for the record, and meant to be a little funny; did I mention the Democrats didn't even bother to SHOW UP the last two days of recount? Idiots!)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x308661

[Chi]

14. BTW...

Thanx for helping with the recount!!

Looks like quite a few peeps are holding info close to the vest.
I hope there is a dramatic conclusion they all have in mind.

[dzika]

15. TIA, you're on to something here

For most of us there is more than enough evidence in the exit poll deviations alone.

Your analysis continues to be more specific and more useful.

Does the fact that the greatest deviations were in the east make the final "weighted" exit polls even more improbable?

[Melissa G]

16. Kick for TIA's research! n/t

[bleever]

22. Good question, dzika. The skew is probably even greater

when you take this analysis into account.

[msongs]

20. proper use of this kind of information? & does it matter??

enjoy reading all this stuff, not sure it is gonna matter in any way beyond some fun theories. seems like the dems are not too interested other than Mr. Conyers.

so what is the proper use of this kind of information beyond entertainement value?

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[TruthIsAll]

24. One proper use would be to make a deviation tee-shirt.

How about: "I pressed Kerry, but it came up Bush".

[seaclyr]

25. Kick for more great research! n/t

[myschkin]

27. kick

[berniew1]

28. Its a matter of where the swing states were- Florida, Ohio, Penn. had most

vote machine fraud, systematic dirty tricks, and manipulation of registrationn,absentee and provisional ballots- especially in minority areas.

Florida documentation
http://www.flcv.com/fraudpat.html
http://www.flcv.com/EIRSFLa.html
http://www.flcv.com/dirtytrf.html
http://www.flcv.com/EIRSFla2.html

Ohio documentation
http://northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm
http://www.freepress.org Departments articles
http://www.flcv.com/fraudpat.html Ohio (lots of EIRS cases here)
http://www.flcv.com/greenrc.html

Pennsyslvania
http://www.flcv.com/ussumall.html Pennsylvania
http://www.flcv.com/mercerco.html
http://www.flcv.com/philapdt.html

Lots of other fraud and manipulation in other states at:
http://www.flcv.com/ussumall.html

[super simian]

30. kick n/t

:kick:

[bleever]

31. The graph of red shift by total votes vs. time-zone is even more

astounding if you just total each time zone.

Kerry's actual votes, compared to what the exit polls predicted, were 97,000 more in the Pacific time zone, 130,000 less in the Mountain zone, 313,000 less in the Central zone, and 1,572,000 less in the Easter zone.

Again, astounding.

What makes the exit polls so much more erroneous the further east you go? Magnetic fields? It's an amazingly pronounced relationship.

It's like an elephant under the rug.

How long can everyone ignore it?

:thumbsup:

[FogerRox]

32. NH all paper--yes--but some counted with Diebold optical scanners

--that fed into a GEMS tabulator------
If areas with op scanners were off --it would be the legal basis to look at other states w/OP scanners

ALas

[TruthIsAll]

44. Here is a more accurate table...

 
Time	Dev	 Exit	Final	Vote	Vote
Zone	to:	 Poll	Vote	PctDev Dev
East	Bush-22	 55.11	52.31	-2.80%	-1724
					
Cent	Bush-11	 46.10	44.01	-2.08%	-467
	Kerry-5	 36.72	38.68	1.97%	 203
					
Moun	Bush -7	 41.86	39.70	-2.15%	-130
	Kerry-1	 39.28	39.51	0.22%    1
					
Pac	Bush -3	 50.31	48.32	-1.99%	-118
	Kerry-2	 52.27	53.17	0.90%	 18
					
Total	Bush-43	 48.34	46.09	-2.26%	-2439
	Kerry-8	 42.76	43.79	1.03%	  222
 

[Nederland]

33. Have you considered...

...mapping the correlation between voting patterns and astrological signs? I think that might be just as relevant...

[TruthIsAll]

36. The data has no relevance if you live in Denial or...

........NEVER-NEVERLAND

Zone	 Votes	AvgDev	VoteDev	VoteDev%
East	60,563	-2.85%	-1724	78%
Cent	36,001	-0.73%	-264	12%
Mount	6,883 	-1.88%	-129	6%
Pac	17,608	-0.57%	-100	4%
				
Total 121,055	-1.83%	-2217	100%

[bleever]

35. What kind of explanations can be floated to explain this away?

I'm having trouble coming up with how they will spin this.

This seems huge.

Thanks for the new graphs above; they really make it dramatically clear.

Why the hell would exit poll "error" be larger the further east you go?

[TruthIsAll]

40. In the East, Repubs are shy, Dems are aggressive...

even if Mitofsky's own data says otherwise...

[Wilms]

39. kick n/t

[Peace Patriot]

42. Next time it's going to be the WEST. The BushCons are a thousand...

...steps ahead of us. They know the election reform fight is a state by state fight (not a Congressional fight, where they have election reform blockaded). That's why they just got rid of CA Sec of State Kevin Shelley, one of the few Sec's of State in the country who tried to protect voters from Diebold (decertified and sued Diebold; gave Californians a paper ballot option just prior to 2004 election). Schwarzenegger wants to redistrict California, and, as the BushCon he is (meeting with George Schultz and Kenneth Lay a year before the phony Recall--see Greg Palast--at which Schwarz chosen for the Texification, Dieboldisation and Bushification of California) is now trying to take Enron's $10 billion theft out of the hides of Calif. state pensioners.

Shelley just resigned under a barrage of trumped up charges, fomented by the SF Chronicle. This is the most dismaying, depressing, disgusting event I have personally been witness to, in CA.

DUers need to get ON this, NOW! Educate Calif. legislators (who must approve any Schwarz replacement of Shelley), and they need to be warned of what's coming.

GO HERE for LETTER OF THE WEEK #4: Kevin Shelley, Diebold & Election Fraud

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x319613

This is a sample draft letter on this matter, that, 1) defends Shelley, recommends preserving his reforms, and recommends appointment of someone up to his high standard of vigilance; 2) warns California of what this could mean--the Dieboldisation and Bushification of California; 3) educates (with summaries of studies, and urls to others) on 2004 Election Fraud.

It's aimed at CA legislators--and the post provides link to CA legislator contact info. It's a DRAFT LETTER, a bit too long, but a start...

-----

And THANK YOU, TruthIsAll, for your superb work as usual!

[TruthIsAll]

46. You are right. The Repukes play 3-card monte and beat the Dems every time.

There is only ONE REAL solution:
100% Paper ballots.
Hand counted.

No machines. Period.

Anything else is suicide.

[AmericanInsurgent]

43. Military Voting Results

Has anyone seen the military voting results? If Bush had won the military vote, then it would have been front page news. I would assume all of the states break the results down according to military or, at least, overseas, as New Jersey did.
Could Bush be covering up the results? This link shows Kerry beating Bush, 875 to 360, in partial New Jersey overseas voting results.

[dogindia]

47. kick. juicy

:kick: