The average of the weighted National Exit Poll statistics
across DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS indicates that Kerry won by
50.8% - 48.0%.
National Exit Poll
13047 sampled
Randomly selected
1.0% Margin of Error
Quick summary:
Women (54% majority) voted almost 5-4 for Kerry
Protestants voted 5-4 for Bush. All others voted for Kerry.
Military voted 5-4 for Bush
Late deciders voted 5-4 for Kerry
Those who considered Economy, health care or education as
the most important issue voted 3-1 for Kerry.
Those who considered morality or terror as the most important
issue voted 4-1 for Bush.
The South voted 5-4 for Bush. Kerry won all other regions.
Moderates voted almost 3-2 for Kerry.
Independents voted 6-5 for Kerry.
Under age 30 voted 5-4 for Kerry.
Post graduates voted 3-2 for Kerry.
Under $50k income voted 3-2 for Kerry.
WEIGHTED SUMMARY
CATEGORY Bush Kerry Nader
GENDER 48.22% 50.78% 1.00%
EDUCATION 48.05% 50.21% 1.17%
INCOME 48.12% 51.42% 0.95%
RACE 47.86% 50.94% 1.00%
AGE 48.17% 50.53% 1.00%
PARTYID 47.77% 50.69% 0.92%
IDEOLOGY 48.15% 49.85% 1.00%
RELIGION 48.19% 51.55% 1.19%
MILITARY 47.62% 51.20% 1.00%
DECIDED 47.95% 51.23% 0.54%
ISSUES 47.92% 50.80% 1.28%
REGION 47.95% 50.53% 1.00%
AVERAGE 48.00% 50.81% 1.00%
Actual Vote
Bush 62,028,194 50.732%
Kerry 59,027,612 48.277%
Probability of Bush average deviation (2.732%):
= 1- NORMDIST(0.5073,0.48,0.01/1.96,TRUE)= 0.000000043879
or
************* 1 in 22,790,202 **************
Probability of Bush deviation based on Party-ID (2.96%):
= 1- NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4777,0.01/1.96,TRUE)= 0.000000003294
or
************* 1 in 303,538,508 *************
GENDER
..... Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
Male 46% 52% 47% 1% 23.5% 21.6% 0.5%
Female 54% 45% 54% 1% 24.3% 29.2% 0.5%
100% 48.22% 50.78% 1.00%
EDUCATION
........ Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
No HS 4% 47% 52% 1% 1.9% 2.1% 0.0%
HS Grad 22% 48% 51% 1% 10.6% 11.2% 0.2%
College 31% 51% 47% 1% 15.8% 14.6% 0.3%
Col Grad 26% 50% 48% 1% 13.0% 12.5% 0.3%
Postgrad 17% 40% 58% 2% 6.8% 9.9% 0.3%
100% 48.1% 50.2% 1.2%
AGE
........ Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
18-29 17% 43% 56% 1% 7.3% 9.5% 0.2%
30-44 27% 50% 49% 1% 13.5% 13.2% 0.3%
45-59 30% 47% 51% 1% 14.1% 15.3% 0.3%
60 + 26% 51% 48% 1% 13.3% 12.5% 0.3%
100% 48.2% 50.5% 1.0%
INCOME
......Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
0-$15 9% 33% 66% 1% 3.0% 5.9% 0.1%
15-30 15% 39% 59% 1% 5.9% 8.9% 0.2%
30-50 22% 47% 52% 1% 10.3% 11.4% 0.2%
50-75 23% 53% 45% 1% 12.2% 10.4% 0.2%
75-100 13% 50% 49% 0% 6.5% 6.4% 0.0%
100-150 11% 53% 45% 2% 5.8% 5.0% 0.2%
150-200 4% 53% 47% 0% 2.1% 1.9% 0.0%
200,000 4% 58% 41% 1% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0%
100% 48.1% 51.4% 1.0%
PARTYID
........ Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
Dem 38% 9% 90% 1% 3.4% 34.2% 0.4%
Rep 35% 92% 7% 0% 32.2% 2.5% 0.0%
Ind 27% 45% 52% 2% 12.2% 14.0% 0.5%
100% 47.77% 50.69% 0.92%
IDEOLOGY
...... Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
Lib 22% 12% 86% 1% 2.6% 18.9% 0.2%
Mod 45% 41% 57% 1% 18.5% 25.7% 0.5%
Con 33% 82% 16% 1% 27.1% 5.3% 0.3%
100% 48.2% 49.9% 1.0%
RELIGION
......Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
Prot 53% 56% 43% 1% 29.7% 22.8% 0.5%
Cath 27% 49% 50% 1% 13.2% 13.5% 0.3%
Jewish 3% 23% 77% 0% 0.7% 2.3% 0.0%
Other 7% 20% 75% 4% 1.4% 5.3% 0.3%
None 10% 29% 70% 1% 3.2% 7.7% 0.1%
100% 48.2% 51.6% 1.2%
MILITARY
...... Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
Yes 18% 55% 43% 1% 9.9% 7.7% 0.2%
No 82% 46% 53% 1% 37.7% 43.5% 0.8%
100% 47.6% 51.2% 1.0%
WHEN DECIDED
........ Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
Today 6% 40% 53% 5% 2.4% 3.2% 0.3%
Last3Days 3% 41% 53% 4% 1.2% 1.6% 0.1%
Last Week 2% 51% 48% 1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Month 10% 38% 60% 1% 3.8% 6.0% 0.1%
Before 79% 50% 50% 0% 39.5% 39.5% 0.0%
100% 48.0% 51.2% 0.5%
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
....... Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
Taxes 5% 53% 47% 0% 2.7% 2.4% 0.0%
Educ 4% 24% 75% 0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Iraq 15% 23% 76% 1% 3.5% 11.4% 0.2%
Terror 18% 85% 15% 1% 15.3% 2.7% 0.2%
Economy 20% 16% 82% 1% 3.2% 16.4% 0.2%
Morals 21% 78% 19% 3% 16.4% 4.0% 0.6%
Health 8% 20% 79% 0% 1.6% 6.3% 0.0%
100% 47.9% 50.8% 1.3%
REGION
......Vert Bush Kerry Nader Bush Kerry Nader
East 22% 41% 58% 1% 9.0% 12.8% 0.2%
Midw 25% 49% 50% 1% 12.3% 12.5% 0.3%
South 31% 54% 44% 1% 16.7% 13.6% 0.3%
West 22% 45% 53% 1% 9.5% 11.1% 0.2%
100% 47.95% 50.53% 1.00%