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Dr. Steven Freeman wrote two reports on the 2004 election. The first is available at his web site, listed above: "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy."
The second was circulated on the internet in draft form, then withdrawn, because it is being published as a book in May, but legislators and other interested parties can easily obtain a copy from Freeman at his web site. It's entitled:
"Hypotheses for Explaining the Exit Poll-Official Count Discrepancy in the 2004 US Presidential Election (Working Paper #05-01, January 5, 2005)"
Click on the title, and it says write to Dr. Freeman at: sf@appliedresearch.us
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Freeman's second paper contains an intriguing analysis of what Kerry's vote should have been, based on factors other than the exit polls. Here's my summary of it:
Dr. Steven Freeman provides an astute analysis of the predictable vote for John Kerry in 2004, using the base vote going in (who voted in 2000), the big switch from Nader to Kerry, and new voter registration which favored Democrats by 57% to 41%. Adding these three groups of voters together, Dr. Freeman finds a discrepancy of over 4 million votes (and possibly as high as 8 million) that Kerry should have gotten and didn't, in the official results. (This analysis appears in Dr. Freeman's second study on the 2004 election, available on request.)
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And here's my summary of the 9-Ph.D. report on the election:
In another new study, on January 29, 2005, nine Ph.D.'s from leading universities issued a report that also calls the 2004 election result into serious question. They find that Kerry won the exit polls (by a 3% margin). They find the odds against exit poll error--and thus, the odds against the Bush win --to be 1 in 10 million. They find a large, unexplained skew toward Bush at the precinct level in electronic voting vs. paper ballot (a skew that has been confirmed by other reports--see the U.C. Berkeley/Florida, and democraticunderground.com/North Carolina reports).
This report also finds the explanation by Edison/Mitofsky (the exit pollsters) for why Kerry won the exit polls--that Republicans were shy of the pollsters--to be without foundation. In fact, the data points to the opposite conclusion--that the exit polls actually favored Bush--which makes the unexplained discrepancy between the exit polls and the official results even larger in Kerry's favor. The report calls for a full investigation of the 2004 election--the latest in a growing list of expert reports that do so.
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This 9-Ph.D. report has an ungainly title:
"US Count Votes: Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report"
The report is only 5 pages.
Here are the 9 Ph.D.'s:
Josh Mitteldorf, Ph.D. - Temple University Statistics Department Kathy Dopp, MS in mathematics - USCountVotes, President
Steven F. Freeman, PhD - Center for Organizational Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania Brian Joiner, PhD - Prof. of Statistics and Director of Statistical Consulting (ret), University of Wisconsin
Frank Stenger, PhD in mathematics - School of Computing, University of Utah
Richard G. Sheehan, PhD - Department of Finance, University of Notre Dame
Elizabeth Liddle, MA - (UK) PhD candidate at the University of Nottingham
Paul F. Velleman, Ph.D. - Department of Statistical Sciences, Cornell University
Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D. - Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University Campbell B. Read, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University
Also Peer Reviewed by USCountVotes’ core group of statisticians and independent reviewers.
Press Contact: Bruce O'Dell, USCountVotes, Vice President bruce@uscountvotes.org
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