The National Exit Poll had Kerry winning the bulk of the 21
million new voters by a 3-2 margin. As a result, he won the
election by 50.8-48.2%.
But Edison/Mitofsky claim that Bush voters were reluctant to
tell exit pollsters who the voted for. Apparently, E/M never
read their own report; the data says just the opposite: Bush
voters in heavy GOP precincts were more apt to speak to the
pollsters. If so, Kerry's margin was even bigger than 2.6%.
And that's not even considering all those Democrats who were
disenfranchised or stood on line but never got a chance to
vote.
Inquiring minds: So where did Bush get his 12 million new
voters from, as compared to 2000?
(Votes in thousands)
2000 2004 Pct 2000 Pct 2000 Pct 2004 Pct 2004 Pct 2004Chg
State Votes Votes Chg Bush Vote Gore Vote Bush Vote Kerry Vote Bush Kerry
Total 104339 122171 17.1% 50,456 47.87% 51,000 48.38% 62,029 50.77% 59,026 48.31% 2.90% -0.07%
HI 365 429 17.6% 138 37.79% 205 56.28% 194 45.26% 232 54.01% 7.47% -2.28%
RI 405 436 7.6% 131 32.23% 250 61.59% 169 38.77% 260 59.57% 6.54% -2.02%
NJ 3,168 3,610 14.0% 1,284 40.54% 1,789 56.47% 1,668 46.21% 1,911 52.95% 5.66% -3.52%
AL 1,652 1,883 13.9% 941 56.97% 693 41.92% 1,176 62.49% 694 36.86% 5.52% -5.06%
TN 2,063 2,437 18.1% 1,062 51.46% 982 47.58% 1,384 56.80% 1,036 42.53% 5.33% -5.05%
CT 1,442 1,579 9.5% 561 38.92% 816 56.61% 694 43.94% 857 54.31% 5.02% -2.30%
NY 6,755 7,389 9.4% 2,403 35.58% 4,108 60.81% 2,963 40.10% 4,314 58.39% 4.52% -2.42%
OK 1,219 1,464 20.1% 744 61.08% 474 38.92% 960 65.57% 504 34.43% 4.49% -4.49%
MA 2,669 2,905 8.9% 879 32.92% 1,616 60.58% 1,074 36.97% 1,804 62.09% 4.05% 1.51%
WV 643 756 17.6% 336 52.36% 295 45.98% 424 56.06% 327 43.20% 3.71% -2.78%
DE 326 375 15.2% 137 42.16% 180 55.29% 172 45.77% 200 53.36% 3.61% -1.93%
LA 1,741 1,939 11.4% 928 53.30% 792 45.52% 1,102 56.85% 820 42.31% 3.54% -3.21%
UT 754 927 22.9% 515 68.32% 203 26.93% 664 71.64% 241 26.03% 3.32% -0.90%
AZ 1,513 2,013 33.1% 782 51.67% 685 45.31% 1,104 54.87% 894 44.40% 3.19% -0.91%
KS 1,058 1,188 12.3% 622 58.84% 399 37.75% 736 62.00% 435 36.62% 3.17% -1.13%
NE 690 777 12.6% 434 62.86% 232 33.58% 513 65.98% 254 32.72% 3.12% -0.86%
FL 5,923 7,604 28.4% 2,913 49.18% 2,912 49.17% 3,965 52.14% 3,584 47.13% 2.96% -2.04%
KY 1,535 1,796 17.0% 872 56.86% 639 41.63% 1,069 59.55% 713 39.69% 2.69% -1.95%
MD 2,013 2,384 18.4% 814 40.42% 1,146 56.91% 1,025 42.98% 1,334 55.97% 2.56% -0.94%
IN 2,166 2,468 13.9% 1,246 57.51% 902 41.64% 1,479 59.95% 969 39.26% 2.44% -2.37%
MO 2,340 2,731 16.7% 1,190 50.86% 1,111 47.49% 1,456 53.30% 1,259 46.10% 2.44% -1.39%
CA 10,847 12,392 14.2% 4,567 42.11% 5,861 54.03% 5,510 44.46% 6,745 54.43% 2.36% 0.40%
GA 2,549 3,299 29.4% 1,420 55.69% 1,116 43.78% 1,914 58.03% 1,366 41.41% 2.34% -2.37%
AR 909 1,056 16.1% 473 52.02% 423 46.50% 573 54.26% 469 44.40% 2.24% -2.10%
NM 594 756 27.2% 286 48.18% 287 48.24% 377 49.84% 371 49.05% 1.66% 0.80%
PA 4,870 5,766 18.4% 2,281 46.84% 2,486 51.04% 2,794 48.46% 2,938 50.96% 1.62% -0.08%
IL 4,712 5,275 11.9% 2,019 42.86% 2,589 54.94% 2,346 44.46% 2,892 54.82% 1.61% -0.12%
MN 2,405 2,823 17.4% 1,110 46.15% 1,168 48.58% 1,347 47.71% 1,445 51.20% 1.57% 2.61%
TX 6,371 7,410 16.3% 3,800 59.64% 2,434 38.20% 4,527 61.09% 2,833 38.23% 1.45% 0.03%
MI 4,208 4,838 15.0% 1,953 46.42% 2,170 51.58% 2,314 47.83% 2,479 51.25% 1.41% -0.34%
WI 2,574 2,993 16.3% 1,237 48.06% 1,243 48.28% 1,478 49.38% 1,490 49.76% 1.32% 1.48%
IA 1,302 1,505 15.6% 634 48.71% 639 49.03% 752 49.96% 742 49.29% 1.24% 0.26%
MS 986 1,138 15.5% 573 58.12% 405 41.05% 673 59.10% 457 40.13% 0.97% -0.92%
VA 2,714 3,193 17.6% 1,437 52.96% 1,217 44.85% 1,717 53.77% 1,455 45.56% 0.81% 0.71%
SC 1,372 1,616 17.8% 786 57.30% 566 41.23% 938 58.06% 662 40.96% 0.76% -0.27%
WA 2,460 2,857 16.2% 1,109 45.08% 1,248 50.73% 1,305 45.67% 1,510 52.86% 0.59% 2.13%
AK 275 312 13.3% 167 60.84% 79 28.71% 191 61.22% 111 35.61% 0.38% 6.89%
DC 201 227 13.2% 18 9.01% 172 85.72% 21 9.37% 203 89.43% 0.36% 3.72%
ND 280 313 11.9% 175 62.53% 95 34.08% 197 62.86% 111 35.50% 0.33% 1.42%
OH 4,655 5,625 20.8% 2,351 50.51% 2,186 46.96% 2,860 50.84% 2,741 48.73% 0.33% 1.77%
NH 562 676 20.3% 274 48.67% 266 47.38% 331 48.99% 341 50.35% 0.32% 2.97%
OR 1,511 1,828 20.9% 714 47.22% 720 47.66% 867 47.42% 943 51.60% 0.21% 3.94%
CO 1,713 2,128 24.2% 884 51.58% 738 43.09% 1,101 51.76% 1,002 47.08% 0.18% 4.00%
NV 597 826 38.4% 302 50.55% 280 46.93% 419 50.70% 397 48.09% 0.14% 1.16%
ME 644 741 15.1% 287 44.53% 320 49.71% 330 44.58% 397 53.57% 0.05% 3.87%
NC 2,889 3,501 21.2% 1,631 56.46% 1,258 43.54% 1,961 56.02% 1,526 43.59% -0.44% 0.05%
WY 213 243 14.0% 148 69.44% 60 28.39% 168 69.00% 71 29.13% -0.44% 0.74%
ID 488 598 22.7% 337 69.06% 139 28.42% 409 68.39% 181 30.26% -0.67% 1.85%
MT 402 450 12.1% 240 59.78% 137 34.13% 266 59.07% 174 38.57% -0.72% 4.43%
SD 310 388 25.4% 191 61.61% 119 38.39% 233 59.91% 149 38.44% -1.70% 0.06%
VT 289 311 7.5% 120 41.42% 149 51.53% 121 38.98% 184 59.22% -2.44% 7.68%