New Hampshire Exit Polls and Nader Recount

[davidgmills]

Does anyone know why the recount so closely matched the actual count in New Hampshire when the exit polls purportedly showed a larger margin of victory for Kerry?

Was it just because it was a few selected pricincts who were thought to be more Democratic than they actually were?

Was it paper ballots that kept the recount of these precincts accurate?

Any other ideas?

Someone has raised NH as possible proof that the exit polls were wrong on the blog of Freeman's new article. We nned to dispell this notion if we can.

[Stevepol]

1. The recount was done on only 11 precincts. I have no idea

why nothing was found. The difference between the exit polls and the actual vote results were highly suspicious for the state as a whole. maybe the biggest difference in any of the states. I don't know how many precincts NH has. Not even sure now what the criteria were that made them choose the 11 precincts they chose to do the recount in.

I do know this: the exit polls are highly reliable unless somebody tinkered with them in this state, more now than in 2000. I feel 99% certain that the 5,000,000 vote victory for Kerry that the exit polls indicate is right within the margin of error.

[AtLiberty]

2. Refresh my memory...

What type of voting method was used in NH?

[skids]

3. Opscan, IIRC.

The test was targetted at a few precincts on the basis of a statistical analysis. The only thing that the recount disproved was that particular statistical analysis's suitability for pinpointing fraud.

[papau]

4. true - plus the tie back of a few thousand votes under optical scan says

nothing as to "lost" votes or "found" votes or "absentee" votes that may have - somehow - got by the exit pollester.

[AtLiberty]

5. Was the software scrutinized?

This software wasn't certified, was it?

[dogindia]

6. maybe the recount was tinkered with by powerful folks.

[davidgmills]

7. Think I figured it out

Only 373 polled per TIA's stats. MOE's must be fairly high on 373 people.

Also according to TIA, the pre-election polls were dead on. I surmise they polled more people.

Saw this phenomonenon several times on TIA's stats where the exit polls did not poll very many people.

[TruthIsAll]

8. NH has always been a hotbed of fraud.

Witness the 1988 GOP presidential primary.

Dole was kicking Bush's ass. He was ahead in all the polls going into primary day. He had already won a couple of primaries.

But Bush won in a landslide. The experts and pollsters were amazed.

Just google the Bush/John Sununu connection.

[Amaryllis]

9. Here's another thread on this topic with more thoughts:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330551

[davidgmills]

10. Better thread on topic here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=330551&mesg_id=330551

Let's let this one die.