1996 NATIONAL EXIT POLL: JUST LIKE IN 2000, RIGHT ON THE MONEY

[TruthIsAll]

This is another nail in the coffin of those naysayers who
claim exit polls are never right. 

I have calculated the average weighted national percentages
for 12 exit poll demographics.

Clinton exit poll average was within 1.03% of his actual vote.

For Dole, it was closer: 0.46%
Perot was almost exact: 0.09%.

In 2000, Gore and Bush were each within 0.50%.

So what happened in 2004?
Kerry won the National Exit poll: 50.8% - 48.2%
Bush won the vote: 50.73% - 48.28%

That's a 2.5% deviation and the Margin of Error is 1.0%.

CATEG       Clinton     Dole   Perot				
Exit        48.17%	41.16%   8.49%					
Actual      49.20%	40.70%	  8.40%

Diff	       1.03%   0.46%   0.09%
										
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html							
Sample size: 16,359 / Updated: 11/06/96 11:49 a.m.							
							
CATEG	     Clinton	Dole	Perot				
Gender      48.72%     40.88% 8.44%				
Whites       43.20%	45.88%	9.44%				
Race	       48.76%	41.12%	8.34%				
Age	       48.85%	40.53%	8.69%				
Income	      48.89%	40.79%	7.45%				
PartyId	      48.74%	40.77%	8.46%				
1992Vote	48.75%	41.18%	8.16%				
Ideology	48.99%	41.14%	8.27%				
Education	49.02%	39.64%	9.41%				
Religion	48.22%	39.76%	9.23%				
w/oPerot 	47.77%	41.10%	7.45%				
Decided 	48.63%	39.97%	8.58%						
										
Average	      48.17%	41.16%	8.49%					
Actual	       49.20%	40.70%	8.40%							
										
			HORIZONTAL			VERTICAL				
Gender	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Men	48	43	44	10	42	52	57	20.64%	21.12%	4.80%
Women	52	54	38	7	58	48	43	28.08%	19.76%	3.64%
								48.72%	40.88%	8.44%
										
Whites
	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Men	48	38	49	11	42	51	57	18.24%	23.52%	5.28%
Women	52	48	43	8	58	49	43	24.96%	22.36%	4.16%
								43.20%	45.88%	9.44%
										
Race	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
White	83	43	46	9	73	93	90	35.69%	38.18%	7.47%
Blacks	10	84	12	4	17	3	4	8.40%	1.20%	0.40%
Hispan 5	72	21	6	7	2	3	3.60%	1.05%	0.30%
Asians	1	43	48	8	1	1	1	0.43%	0.48%	0.08%
Other	1	64	21	9	2	1	1	0.64%	0.21%	0.09%
								48.76%	41.12%	8.34%
										
Age	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
18-29	17	53	34	10	18	14	21	9.01%	5.78%	1.70%
30-44	33	48	41	9	32	33	34	15.84%	13.53%	2.97%
45-59	26	48	41	9	26	27	27	12.48%	10.66%	2.34%
60+	24	48	44	7	23	25	19	11.52%	10.56%	1.68%
								48.85%	40.53%	8.69%
										
Income	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot

<15k	 11	59	28	11	14	8	14	6.49%	3.08%	1.21%
15-30	23	53	36	9	25	20	24	12.19%	8.28%	2.07%
30-50	27	48	40	10	27	27	31	12.96%	10.80%	2.70%
50-75	21	47	45	7	20	23	17	9.87%	9.45%	1.47%
75-100	9	44	48	7	8	10	7	3.96%	4.32%	0.63%
100+	9	38	54	6	7	12	7	3.42%	4.86%	0.54%
							   48.89%	40.79%	7.45%
										
PtyID	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Dem	39.4	84	10	5	68	10	23	33.10%	3.94%	1.97%
Rep	34.7	13	80	6	9	68	24	4.51%	27.76%	2.08%
Ind	25.9	43	35	17	23	22	53	11.14%	9.07%	4.40%
							   48.74%	40.77%	8.46%
										
92Vote	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Clinton  43     85	9	4	75	10	22	36.55%	3.87%	1.72%
Bush     35     13	82	4	10	69	18	4.55%	28.70%	1.40%
Perot	   12     22	44	33	6	13	48	2.64%	5.28%	3.96%
Other     1     24	36	9	0	1	1	0.24%	0.36%	0.09%
No  	    9     53    33	11	9	7	11	4.77%	2.97%	0.99%
							      48.75%	41.18%	8.16%
										
Ideology	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Liberal	        20	    78	11	7	31	5	17	15.60%	2.20%	1.40%
Moderate	47	57	33	9	55	37	51	26.79%	15.51%	4.23%
Conservative	33	20	71	8	14	57	32	6.60%	23.43%	2.64%
								      48.99%	41.14%	8.27%
										
Education	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
No H.S. 	6	59	28	11	8	4	8	3.54%	1.68%	0.66%
H.S Grad	24	51	35	13	25	21	32	12.24%	8.40%	3.12%
College	         27 	48	40	10	27	27	29	12.96%	10.80%	2.70%
CollGrad	26	44	46	8	23	30	21	11.44%	11.96%	2.08%
Post-Grad	17	52	40	5	18	18	10	8.84%	6.80%	0.85%
								      49.02%	39.64%	9.41%
										
Religion	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Protestant	38	41	50	8	32	47	33	15.58%	19.00%	3.04%
Catholic	29	53	37	9	31	27	27	15.37%	10.73%	2.61%
OthChrist	16	45	41	12	15	17	21	7.20%	6.56%	1.92%
Jewish	        3	78	16	3	6	1	1	2.34%	0.48%	0.09%
Other            6	60	23	11	7	3	7	3.60%	1.38%	0.66%
None             7	59	23	13	9	4	11	4.13%	1.61%	0.91%
								      48.22%	39.76%	9.23%
										
w/oPerot
	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
Clinton	50	91	3	5	93	4	30	45.50%	1.50%	2.50%
Dole	43	4	90	5	4	92	30	1.72%	38.70%	2.15%
NotVote5	11	18	56	1	2	36	0.55%	0.90%	2.80%
								47.77%	41.10%	7.45%
										
Decided
	All	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Clinton	Dole	Perot
3Days	11	35	38	22	8	11	28	3.85%	4.18%	2.42%
Week	6	35	47	17	4	7	12	2.10%	2.82%	1.02%
Month	13	47	36	13	12	11	19	6.11%	4.68%	1.69%
Before69	53	41	5	75	70	41	36.57%	28.29%	3.45%
							     48.63%	39.97%	8.58%

[imenja]

1. who says exit polls are never right?

I have never heard that.

[Wilms]

2. Plenty of people.

But, who cares?

Logical conclusions borne out through statistical analysis scare a lot people.

Afterall, if the elction was stolen, what else could be other than it seems?

[imenja]

5. the MSM take

is that exit polls are usually right, but they weren't in 2004.

[PATRICK]

10. And the pressure

was extreme to make them "more in line" with the so-called GOP resurgence. So either they didn't get the point and made them more accurate thinking the GOP really had a true point or their minor skew for the GOP was surpassed bigtime by overreaching fraud, especially in Digital Chicago Graveyard.

Or they would have you believe something else, ANYTHING added to their unreliability and sudden incompetence with their very businesses on the line made this a topic that simply shouldn't be imagined, continued, researched, discussed or even brought up again without indignant shouting or the silent treatment- common to nascent dictatorships.

The constant push to get any story at all disliked by the Boyking into the daylight always runs up against the three moneys on the media stonewall. ANY story, any GOPer, any truth, any peril to the common good or survival of the species.

Special kudos for the cooperative Dem leadership who not only bought into the legitimacy of the election but created, upheld and rended shirts by themselves selling the silly irrational excuses as they morphed day by day.

[TruthIsAll]

16. THE POLL AVERAGES ARE EVEN MORE ACCURATE THAN CALCULATED ABOVE

The average percentages are even closer than stated above. I
incorrectly included the "Whites" category in the
total average. 
As whites reflect less than 100% of the votes, the averages
were off, so I removed it from the list and recalculated. 

NOTE THAT THE DOLE AND PEROT AVERAGE WEIGHTED POLL NUMBERS ARE
EACH WITHIN .01% OF THE ACTUALS.

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit.poll/index1.html			

Sample Size: 16359 /Updated 11/06/96 11:49 a.m.			
			
CATEG 	     Clinton	Dole	Perot
Gender	      48.72%	40.88%	8.44%
Race	      48.76%  41.12%	8.34%
Age	      48.85%  40.53%	8.69%
Income	      48.89%	40.79%	7.45%
PartyId	      48.74%	40.77%	8.46%
1992Vote	48.75%	41.18%	8.16%
Ideology	48.99%	41.14%	8.27%
Education	49.02%	39.64%	9.41%
Religion	48.22%	39.76%	9.23%
w/oPerot 	47.77%	41.10%	7.45%
Decided 	48.63%	39.97%	8.58%
			
Average	      48.67%	40.69%	8.39%
Actual	      49.20%	40.70%	8.40%
Diff	      -0.53%	-0.01%	-0.01%

[davidgmills]

3. Mistwell says it all the time

[Goldeneye]

4. Where is he ....I'd like to here how this is a fluke.

[NationalEnquirer]

19. They always say that!

Every Republican I know says this. Now its true that they are always "off" because of the statistical method, but usually they are within the margin of error.

[bleever]

6. "9/11 changed everything." Now, down is up and black is white,

until we reach that point of critical mass towards which we are heading when enough people say "Wait a minute; down is not up, black is not white. What the hell's going on?"

How long can everyone ignore it?


:thumbsup:

[Nothing Without Hope]

8. Yes, I think people are starved for the truth and have almost given up

all hope of hearing the truth again.

Let's hope the tipping point where the monsters' grip is broken comes SOON SOON SOON

And BTW, hi Bleev!
:hi:

[Griffy]

7. once we crack the PROPAGANDA machine, the country will learn! nt

[PATRICK]

18. Should have cracked it in 2000

Instead it got worse and worse with impunity and the seal of 9/11(they were practically swooning with gratitude for an excuse). the same with vote fraud revealed in all its gangster splendor. the same too for the terribly off target Dem political advisers.

It has been uphill with RESISTANCE from party leadership, which is by no means completely gone. It has been a disastrous four years not just because of Bush but because of the opposition singing in harmony rather than dissonance. Little real world results occurred in the concrete tasks laid out in 2000. The pitiful laments that they could do nothing against the media or rival the GOP money machine have been given the lie completely.

These were not years we could afford to lose and the cancer of fraud has not sunk insanely deep into the nation.

To make matters worse only fans of Armageddon will enjoy the legacy of the Bush Captivity of America as the real world problems(climate, population,health, technological change) are only exploited and enabled by the Angels and Merchants of Death.

I said four years ago the mortal head of this hydra that keeps propagating political support no matter who the GOP heads are is the corporate media.

[Nothing Without Hope]

9. TIA, this is great. Where are important analyses like this one being kept?

Is there a permanent "page of DU threads and links" here or elsewhere where a person could go for these analyses and find what they want readily? If I'm arguing with someone who is claiming that exit polls are never right, I want to be able to quickly find the right, concise, devastatingly proven analysis so I can point them to it. There needs to be levels of detail, so that the main message with a few numbers is on top and contains links to more the abstruse levels of the analyses and documentation. Is there a place like that?

And thank you for this. It's a beaut.
:toast:

[helderheid]

12. I would be happy to design a web page for ya TIA

Just let me know

[TruthIsAll]

14. Thanks, but I already have one - for the pre-election model.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

I'm not planning anything post-election.

[super simian]

11. All these numbers confuse me...

I failed arithmetic in the fifth grade. But still managed to earn a PhD and common sense tells me to be suspicious of any exit poll that predicted B*sh would win in 2000. He didn't. What am I missing here? :shrug:

[TruthIsAll]

13. The 2000 exit polls predicted a Gore win...and he won.

The networks initially called Florida for Gore...until the Volusia/Diebold computer "glitch", as Dan Rather called it, caused 16,022 Gore votes to be spread around to third party candidates.

[super simian]

17. Thanks!

Ya scared me for a minute, TIA! (LOL) :toast:

[keepthemhonest]

15. Thanks for the reminder

of why I keep fighting.