Exit Poll Electoral Map - is this right?

[garybeck]

I used an online tool to make this map which shows the electoral map from the exit polls instead of the fraudulent official results:



it's basically the same as the official results map except for OH, FL, and NM. Did I miss any? Are those the only states that actually switched from the exit polls?

I want to get it right because it's going to be used for something, so please let me know if I missed any other switcher states

thanks

[NWHarkness]

1. Iowa?

I could be mistaken, but I thought the exit polls had Kerry up in Iowa.

[garybeck]

2. hmm, i think you're right

According to exitpollz.org. thanks! looks like I have to go back and redo it now.

if i missed any more please let me know

[garybeck]

3. I added Iowa. starting to look like a landslide!

[Wilms]

5. We really need TIA !

I looked here for close races:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/datagraph.php?&year=2004&fips=0&f=0

Colorado
NV
Plus,Florida?

[Up2Late]

4. You might want to check it against this chart

<http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm>

There could be more.:evilgrin:

[AndyTiedye]

6. Do You Hear a Ringing In Your Ears?

[TruthIsAll]

7. THESE STATES FLIPPED TO BUSH: FL, OH, IA, NM, NV

 

 
		Poll			Kerry	2party	Poll	Prob.	Dev/	Beyond
	St	Size	MOE	StDev	Vote	Poll	Dev	Dev	MOE	MOE?
1	NH	1849	2.27%	1.16%	50.69%	55.50	-4.81%	0.00%	-2.12	Yes
2	NY	1452	2.47%	1.26%	59.29%	63.97	-4.68%	0.01%	-1.89	Yes
3	SC	1735	2.34%	1.20%	41.36%	45.79	-4.42%	0.01%	-1.89	Yes
4	NC	2167	2.10%	1.07%	43.76%	47.31	-3.55%	0.05%	-1.69	Yes
5	VT	685	3.56%	1.81%	60.30%	65.69	-5.38%	0.15%	-1.51	Yes

6	PA	1930	2.22%	1.13%	51.26%	54.41	-3.15%	0.27%	-1.42	Yes
7	OH	1963	2.21%	1.13%	48.94%	52.06	-3.12%	0.28%	-1.41	Yes
8	MN	2178	2.09%	1.07%	51.76%	54.61	-2.85%	0.38%	-1.36	Yes
9	FL	2846	1.84%	0.94%	47.48%	49.93	-2.45%	0.44%	-1.34	Yes
10	DE	770	3.48%	1.78%	53.83%	58.44	-4.61%	0.47%	-1.32	Yes

11	MA	889	3.10%	1.58%	62.68%	66.46	-3.79%	0.84%	-1.22	Yes
12	AL	730	3.57%	1.82%	37.10%	41.08	-3.98%	1.45%	-1.11	Yes
13	RI	809	3.30%	1.69%	60.58%	64.24	-3.66%	1.49%	-1.11	Yes
14	NJ	1520	2.49%	1.27%	53.40%	56.13	-2.73%	1.61%	-1.09	Yes
15	AK	910	3.18%	1.62%	36.77%	40.14	-3.37%	1.91%	-1.06	Yes

16	UT	798	3.18%	1.62%	26.65%	29.93	-3.28%	2.16%	-1.03	Yes
17	NE	785	3.37%	1.72%	33.15%	36.54	-3.39%	2.43%	-1.01	Yes
18	CT	872	3.27%	1.67%	55.28%	58.47	-3.20%	2.76%	-0.98	
19	NV	2116	2.13%	1.09%	48.68%	50.66	-1.98%	3.44%	-0.93	
20	AR	1402	2.61%	1.33%	44.72%	46.93	-2.21%	4.89%	-0.84	

21	VA	1431	2.59%	1.32%	45.87%	47.96	-2.09%	5.65%	-0.81	
22	MS	798	3.44%	1.75%	40.44%	43.20	-2.76%	5.77%	-0.80	
23	NM	1951	2.22%	1.13%	49.60%	51.34	-1.74%	6.17%	-0.79	
24	LA	1669	2.38%	1.22%	42.67%	44.50	-1.83%	6.67%	-0.77	
25	IL	1392	2.60%	1.33%	55.22%	57.13	-1.92%	7.44%	-0.74	

26	CO	2515	1.95%	1.00%	47.63%	49.07	-1.44%	7.45%	-0.74	
27	AZ	1859	2.27%	1.16%	45.00%	46.60	-1.60%	8.39%	-0.70	
28	ID	559	3.91%	1.99%	30.68%	33.33	-2.66%	9.14%	-0.68	
29	WA	2123	2.12%	1.08%	53.65%	55.07	-1.42%	9.43%	-0.67	
30	GA	1536	2.48%	1.26%	41.65%	43.11	-1.46%	12.33%	-0.59	

31	DC	795	1.92%	0.98%	90.52%	91.63	-1.11%	12.86%	-0.58	
32	MO	2158	2.11%	1.07%	46.38%	47.48	-1.09%	15.42%	-0.52	
33	IA	2502	1.96%	1.00%	49.66%	50.67	-1.01%	15.62%	-0.52	
34	IN	926	3.17%	1.62%	39.58%	40.97	-1.39%	19.43%	-0.44	
35	MI	2452	1.98%	1.01%	51.73%	52.55	-0.83%	20.66%	-0.42	

36	CA	1919	2.22%	1.13%	55.04%	55.73	-0.69%	27.12%	-0.31	
37	KY	1034	3.00%	1.53%	39.99%	40.76	-0.76%	30.89%	-0.25	
38	MD	1000	3.07%	1.57%	56.57%	57.04	-0.47%	38.14%	-0.15	
39	OK	1539	2.38%	1.21%	34.43%	34.73	-0.30%	40.32%	-0.13	
40	ME	1968	2.20%	1.12%	54.58%	54.83	-0.25%	41.15%	-0.11	

41	WI	2223	2.08%	1.06%	50.19%	50.21	-0.02%	49.17%	-0.01	
42	MT	640	3.78%	1.93%	39.50%	39.28	0.22%	45.51%	0.06	
43	HI	499	4.38%	2.23%	54.40%	53.32	1.08%	31.38%	0.25	
44	OR	1064	3.00%	1.53%	52.11%	51.22	0.89%	28.17%	0.29	
45	SD	1495	2.45%	1.25%	39.09%	37.42	1.67%	9.11%	0.68	

46	WY	684	3.50%	1.78%	29.69%	32.07	2.38%	9.07%	0.68	
47	ND	649	3.63%	1.85%	36.09%	33.58	2.51%	8.76%	0.69	
48	KS	654	3.65%	1.86%	37.13%	34.60	2.53%	8.68%	0.69	
49	WV	1722	2.35%	1.20%	43.52%	45.19	1.67%	8.14%	0.71	
50	TX	1671	2.31%	1.18%	38.49%	36.84	1.65%	8.08%	0.71	
51	TN	1774	2.29%	1.17%	42.81%	41.15	1.66%	7.75%	0.73	
										
		73607	2.71%	1.38%	47.09%	48.84	-1.75%	10.27%	-0.62	

 
 

[garybeck]

9. I didn't realize how close NV is. don't they have

voter verified paper records? hopefully someone will subpoena them.

[L. Coyote]

13. Nevada is 100% Electronic Voting

100% Sequoia Voting Systems, Inc.

96.090% Touchscreen, 3.910 Other

Source:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=201&topic_id=5446

NV Voter Turnout Report

	
		            Votes
 
Registration		1,074,083

Election Day Turnout	  396,952
 % Precinct 47.736

Early Turnout		  346,823
 % Early Vote 41.707

Absentee Turnout	   87,788
 % Absentee 10.557
		
Total Turnout 		  831,563	
 % Turnout 77.421

		State		Clark County
				
BUSH 		418,690		255,337
 % Bush		50.470		46.817
# Republicans	434,239		254,952
				
KERRY		397,190		281,767
 % Kerry	47.878		51.663
# Democrats	429,808		298,246
				
				
Total  Votes	829,587		545,397
Total Turnout: 	831,563		546,858
				
# Registered	1,071,101		684,313
				
Vote Total:		815,880		537,104
Non-VoteTotal:		15,683		9,754
Non-Vote Percentage:	1.8860		1.784
				
Percent of State	100		65.743
				
  U. S. SENATOR 				
				
REID, HARRY 		494,805		345,694
				
ZISER, RICHARD 		284,640		167,104
				
Totals			779,445		512,798
				
 % Reid			67.413
 % Ziser		32.587

Total Turnout: 		831,563		546,858
SenatorialTotal:	779,445		512,798
Non-VoteTotal:		52,118		34,060
Non-Vote Percentage:	6.267		6.228

[L. Coyote]

15. The noteworthy statistic in all this may be

in Clark County (Las Vegas, 64% of NV votes), Bush gets more votes than the number of registered Republicans and Kerry gets fewer votes than the number of registered Democrats.

This certainly begs the obvious question.

[berniew1]

18. Claims of dirty tricks, people in wrong precincts, off. bias, fraud in Nv

http://www.flcv.com/nevada.html

I thougt there was a recount call there, and a court case?
Earlier thread.

[Chi]

27. Can't forget this jaw dropper "Sequoia Gives Away Electronic..."

"Sequoia Gives Away Electronic Voting Machines in Swing State Before November Election"

--snip--

"In August of 2004 Sequoia wanted to get its software into the Reno area (Washoe County Board of Commissioners). How much do you think it costs to license their software for voting purposes? $30,000 a year, plus an annual adjustment for increased costs and inflation EXCEPT THAT THE FIRST FOUR YEARS ARE FREE. That’s right, free. See page 743 (PDF). Sequoia wanted to get their software into swing states like Nevada so badly, they gave away the first $120,000 in licensing fees for four years to get the counties to sign on. Nevada’s population is 90% urban, consisting mainly of Clark County (Las Vegas) and Reno (Washoe County). Nevada also previously received around $15 million in federal grants to defray the anticipated $17 million cost of the voting machines themselves."

http://www.buzzflash.com/contributors/04/11/con04490.html

[Carolab]

32. Yes. SOS Dean Heller keeps crowing about his "paper trail"...

and how "successful" it was in stopping fraud. What a crock. We should count his paper trail and make him prove it.

[garybeck]

19. thanks I've also turned NV blue now n/t

[Enquiringkitty]

8. I don't understand how this man can keep stealing election. Is he

the son of the devil; have 666 on his scalp?

[loudsue]

22. 1) Money and sleezy mafia friends 2) yes 3) probably

Does that answer your questions?? :hi:

:kick::kick::kick:

[L. Coyote]

10. Votes in the States with Close Results.

	Bush	        Kerry	      Pres. Votes	%Bush	%Kerry	Margin
FL	3,955,656	3,574,509	7,591,783	52.104	47.084	-5.0205
CO	1,068,233	  960,666	2,054,498	51.995	46.759	-5.2357
OH	2,858,727	2,739,952	5,625,281	50.819	48.708	-2.1115
NV	  414,939	  393,372	  821,866	50.487	47.863	-2.6242
IA	  751,957	  741,898	1,505,814	49.937	49.269	-0.6680
NM	  376,940	  370,893	  756,348	49.837	49.037	-0.7995
WI	1,477,122	1,488,935	2,992,390	49.363	49.757	0.3948
NH	  330,848	  340,019	  675,314	48.992	50.350	1.3580
PA	2,756,904	2,885,773	5,676,212	48.569	50.840	2.2703
MI	2,310,803	2,475,046	4,832,170	47.821	51.220	3.3989
MN	1,345,175	1,443,619	2,823,218	47.647	51.134	3.4869
OR	  823,210	  890,698	1,730,629	47.567	51.467	3.8996

Have you factored in the margins of error? Could some states have swung to Bush instead of Kerry if the margin of error is factored? I rather doubt it. You might find your argument stronger if you factor this in!!

[FogerRox]

12. My estimates have Kerry winning the EC from 317 to 346

I posted this on nov. 26th
Here is the link:
http://bushflashforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3893


From this summary:
http://rense.com/general59/blatantexitpollfinal.htm

This covers the error 'tween exit polls and the reported results:
Wisconsin: Bush plus 4%
Pennsylvania: Bush plus 5%
Ohio: Bush plus 4%
Florida: Bush plus 7% Minnesota: Bush plus 7%
New Hampshire: Bush plus 15%
North Carolina: Bush plus 9%.


This is the final exit poll and the Published result:
WISCONSIN
Final poll 52-47 ---Kerry won
...Published 50-49

OHIO
Final poll 51-49 ---Kerry won
...Published 49-51

FLORIDA
Final poll 51-49 ---Kerry won
...Published 47-52

MINNESOTA
Final poll 54-44 ---Kerry won
...Published 51-48

NORTH CAROLINA
Final poll 48-52 ---Kerry won
...Published 43-56



Hers the link:
http://bushflashforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3893



Now I will go to this site and enter the real results and see how big Kerrys win really was.


http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc-finalEV.html

Bush 221 EV
Kerry 317 EV

270 required to win.

More on the exit poll error--

http://www.solarbus.org/stealyourelection/articles/exit-poll-discrepancy-1110.pdf

Again more--

http://www.newstarget.com/002076.html
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/Documents/ExitPoll.pdf

[garybeck]

14. hmm, your numbers are different

than what i've seen. for example where do you get that NH had a 15% deviation?

I believe these are the latest figures, showing NH was 4.7% "red shift"

http://www.solarbus.org/election/articles/0128-polls-table.html

And exitpollz.org says 4.9%

I think maybe the report you reference needs to be updated?

[L. Coyote]

20. The difference is "Margin" numbers

The margin is the split between the candidate percentages. You may be more familiar with the difference between one candidates exit poll number and the same candidates election result.

Also, I am citing Steve Freeman's numbers. Other individuals have used rounded-to-nearest-percent T-V show numbers and numbers adjusted so the major candidate numbers add up to 100 percent.

Even my numbers need work. The candidate percentages are based on presidential vote totals, not total number of ballots cast. That will modify the result percentages somewhat, reducing both candidates percents.

[FogerRox]

26. I;m refering to a post I made 11-26-04 @ Bushflash

Piont being Kerry won and I said so, Cause I have a big mouth, LOL

[L. Coyote]

11. Exit Polls in States with Close Results

		Kerry		Kerry		Margin		Electoral 
		Exit		Vote		Error		Votes
NH		54.94		50.684		-4.256		4
NJ		54.70		53.127		-1.573		15
PA		54.12		51.130		-2.990		21
MN		53.52		51.764		-1.756		10
WA		53.48		53.598		0.118		11
OH		52.06		48.749		-3.311		20
MI		51.50		51.734		0.234		17
OR		50.25		51.969		1.719		7
NM		50.08		49.416		-0.664		5
FL		49.70		47.469		-2.231		27
IA		49.70		49.544		-0.156		7
WI		49.24		50.199		0.959		10
NV		49.16		48.666		-0.494		5
CO		48.12		47.349		-0.771		9
MO		47.00		46.327		-0.673		11

Exit Poll Data: Dr. Steve Freeman, ESMTP id <20050…… Sun, 2 Jan 2005

NOTE: "Margin Error" is the difference between the candidates, not the margin of error of the exit polls.

I recommend updating this data with turnout numbers instead of presidential vote numbers to determine the actual percentages of the vote received by the candidates. Some of that data is in the Exit Polls spreadsheet this data is drawn from. Some states are not yet reporting that data or do not actually know it!! The known data follows:

					                 Total 		         Registered
	 Bush		         Kerry		         Votes		         Voters
AK	   188,943		   109,765		   314,502		   472,160
AR	   573,182		   470,230		 1,054,945		 1,684,684
AZ	   908,211		   735,327		 2,038,069		 2,643,331
CA	 5,114,795		 6,250,561		12,590,863		
CO	 1,068,233		   960,666		 2,148,036		 2,404,597
CT	   686,923		   847,666		 1,607,808		 2,044,181
DC	    19,007		   183,876		   203,448		   383,919  
DE	   171,531		   199,887		   375,190		   555,270
FL	 3,955,656		 3,574,509		 7,640,319		10,301,290
HI	   194,109		   231,318		   431,662		   647,238
IA	   751,957		   741,898		 1,513,894		 2,106,658
ID	   408,254		   180,920		   612,786		   798,015
IL	 2,336,253		 2,866,307		 5,350,493		 7,499,488
IN	 1,477,807		   967,346		 2,512,142		 4,296,602
LA	 1,101,871		   819,150		 1,943,106		 2,923,395
MA	 1,067,163		 1,793,916		 2,927,455		 4,098,634
MD	   951,892		 1,223,813		 2,395,791		 3,070,337
MI	 2,310,803		 2,475,046		 4,875,692		 7,164,047
MN	 1,345,175		 1,443,619		 2,828,387		 3,658,000
MO	 1,452,715		 1,253,879		 2,764,635		 4,194,146 
MS	   671,084		   445,608		 1,139,824		 1,802,024
MT	   265,473		   173,363		   456,096		   638,474
ND	   195,998		   110,662		   316,049		   486,978
NE	   508,794		   251,626		   792,603		 1,160,199
NJ	 1,594,204		 1,812,956		 3,638,153		 5,009,140
NM	   376,940		   370,893		   775,094		 1,105,372
NV	   414,939		   393,372		   829,587		 1,074,083
NY	 2,962,789		 4,314,277		 7,448,226		11,837,068
OH	 2,858,727		 2,739,952		 5,574,476		 7,979,639
OK	   959,655		   504,077		 1,474,304		 2,143,978
OR	   823,210		   890,698		 1,818,544		 2,147,685
RI	   161,654		   247,407		   337,027		   672,950 
SD	   232,545		   149,225		   394,930		   552,441
TN	 1,381,937		 1,033,176		 2,456,610		 3,704,040
TX	 4,518,491		 2,825,723		 7,410,749		13,098,329
UT	   612,623		   227,286		   942,010		 1,278,251
VT	   120,710		   183,621		   314,220		   444,077
WA	 1,304,894		 1,510,201		 2,883,499		 3,508,208
WV	   417,516		   322,276		   769,645		 1,168,694
WY	   167,129		    70,620		   245,789		   232,396

[Blue Shark]

16. John Zogby called the election at 6:00pm EST...

...for JFK II with 311 Electoral Votes

[garybeck]

17. I wonder if his data matched this map

question

would you consider this a landslide? I think it's close.

[Up2Late]

23. You should check out this site

<http://www.electoral-vote.com/dec/dec31.html>

It's all Archive Data now, but during the 2004 campaign, it was a great way to sort out all the "Poll Data" that the *2004 PR department kept throwing at us.

Click "Previous Report" to see previous maps, they go back to May 2004:evilgrin:

[Blue Shark]

28. I consider it a Kerry comfortable win...

...and a win is a win is a win. The national numbers are only what the Diebold Tabulators are programmed to report...do you trust the numbers? I don't.

Too freaking bad our guy won and walked away. AHH-fucking-MAZING.

[L. Coyote]

21. A clarification about numbers used, and the term "margin."

Some researchers are using the difference between Bush and Kerry in the Exit polls and in the results.

Other researchers are stating the difference between the Kerry Exit Polls and the Kerry Vote.

The word "margin" has being applied in both instances.

[SharonAnn]

24. Illinois? Did'nt it go for Kerry?

[garybeck]

25. geography quiz

Illinois is blue. that's indiana :)

don't ask me why bush won indiana by 10%. even the exit polls say he did.

[m.standridge]

29. Gary, I've been looking at AR and there are some things in CO

that might be significant enough to merit examination, as to the actual outcome.
In AR, we have a power failure on election day in a crucial area of precincts, and there was a "migration" phenomenon involving over 53,000 votes in a statewide race that the SOS's office has not be able to adequately explain, and they were very late tabulating.
In this time of a lot of reference to exit polls, I'm reluctant to bring this up, but I think it's possible the exit polls--some of which were showing a near dead-even race (not really exit that much--more last-minute pre-election), were missing just a little bit of data in W and SW AR, due to the Clinton factor. Polls were showing that the state had tightened up to 48-48 in the last 24 hours before the election, and the geography of that suggests that was happening in the Hope and Hot Springs areas-- W and SW AR.
Those are Clinton's home areas, and two areas Bush would have tended to do marginally better in without Clinton being for Kerry.
In CO, there was quite a bit of a delay and a lot of controversy, as well.
Bush carried CO, essentially, last time, (2000) with absentee ballots. That is, he couldn't say for sure he'd won until the Absentees had been counted, because his lead could have been surmounted with a small difference in the absentee ballot count from what it turned out to be. Also, CO was interesting in the 1890s model of the Electoral College last time. I noted in a number of e-mails to Dave Leip and others that had one District there been slightly closer--and with a closer count it might have been, given what we know of recounts marginally benefitting Democrats most of the time--Gore would have had a majority of the counties and Districts, while Bush would have been at a Plurality. The combination of Gore and Nader, at that point, would have qualified for an Electoral vote by the 1890s method, there in CO. That combination would have led Bush in all categories. I thought it was an interesting coincidence that they were looking at the Electoral College methodology with one of their proposed amendments out there, this time, too.
Intriguingly, I also determined that AR was somewhat closer, last time (2000) than it is generally known. There was some controversy involving a statewide race that affected the vote totals in Garland County and the larger Arkansas Senate District 10 race area.
Had some number of votes (I'd have to dig it out now, I don't recall offhand), changed hands on some examination of how ballots were handled in that area, Gore would have done considerably better, though taht alone wouldn't have put him over here. (However, there was some other material in other counties).
And, interestingly, too, Gore carried a majority of Districts in AR, too, as in CO.
Anyway, this isn't as easily pointed out via exit polls. Arkansas was the only other southern state besides FL where Kerry sometimes led Bush in the polls, and he was seldom above a plurality even when he had a lead. In 17 or 18 polls that I saw, the Undecided and Margin of Error usually ate up his lead, even when he had one. They were also tied at least once. And, a second time, 36 hours before the election.
So, AR and CO--you might check out a few things before "calling" them. I think, at the very least, that they were much closer, even down to the wire. When you've got pre-election polls to factor in, you can see it more clearly.
NC I guess went to Bush, there were a lot of glitches, but apparently not enough.

[m.standridge]

30. I also didn't see any pre-election polls suggesting

NC was going to Kerry/Edwards. In LA, VA, and NC, though, Bush was seldome above a Plurality. But he always maintained a lead--in the pre-election polls.
Yeah, I'm wondering about all that about Indiana. Somehow, I just don't buy that 10% thing, 100%.
I wondered about Louisiana some, because of how close that Senate race got there a couple of years ago. It was down to the wire, had to have a runoff or something. But the pre-election polls never indicated it getting that close in Louisiana in the 2004 Presidential.
God, they sure did in AR, though. And in CO. And in WI and IA.

[m.standridge]

31. God forgive my spelling

I think the "spell" part of my brain is already asleep.