I now fully accept that Bush won the election fair and square, because...

TruthIsAll

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Fri Feb-25-05 02:50 AM
Original message

I now fully accept that Bush won the election fair and square, because...

Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 03:39 AM by TruthIsAll

I was wrong in assuming that the '96 and '00 final exit polls were the real exit polls. I didn't realize they were just the final, cooked versions, "weighted" to match the vote count.

Yes, Bush really did win the votes of all those final 613 National Exit Poll respondents who were added to the initial, "raw" 13,047-respondent poll (shown on the WP site). This "raw" poll had Kerry winning by 51-48%, therefore it must have been wrong, and that's why it was weighted to match the vote count.

The true, final, accurate 13,660-respondent National Exit Poll is displayed on CNN's site. It is truly accurate (I must repeat myself) because it was "weighted" to the actual, recorded vote count. And we all know that the actual, recorded vote count was 100% accurate in this election, just as has been in all prior elections and shall be in all future elections. That's why the Republicans want to do away with all exit polls, since they are totally redundant; we all know the vote counts are always 100% accurate.

I agree with this sentiment. Why continue to pay Mitofky et al for redundant exit poll data? No one cares about voter demographics. They only want to know what time Fox or CNN will call the election.

But I digress.

And yes, I was deluded in thinking that the "weighted" poll was the real exit poll, the one that was not yet cooked. Anyway, I now realize that the final, "weighted", cooked exit polls must be exactly correct, since they adjust the initial "raw" data to the "pristine" vote count, which of course we know is always 100% accurate. That is especially true now that we have fancy new Diebold/ES&S touchscreen computers to go with the old, reliable punch card/lever machines and those fool-proof opti-scams..um.. optical scanners.

And I also now realize that the original "raw", unadjusted exit poll data is very dirty, indeed. It should never be used by the average person who might get the wrong impression that it's correct. It also would give the wrong impression that Kerry actually won the election.

You see, it's clear that the vote count must be 100% accurate, because the final exit poll proves it. And the final exit poll is also extremely accurate, because the vote count proves it.

It's all very clear to me now.

So let's do away with the exit polls, as the Republicans are suggesting. Who needs them, anyway?

After all, the final exit poll will always confirm the actual vote count. And the vote count is always accurate, since all the votes are always counted. Therefore, so must the final, "weighted" exit poll be very accurate.

And we all know that Brutus is an honorable man.

It all makes eminent sense to me now.

All that exit poll probability analysis was a complete waste of time since the original exit polls were wrong and the vote counts were right. The probability of that is obviously 100%.

Please excuse me.
My head is spinning.
I'm through the looking glass, people.

I have to go now.