NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?

[TruthIsAll]

2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL

Sample        Size     Nov.3    Winner
PRELIMINARY  13047   12:22am Kerry	50.7-47.9%
FINAL	      13660	 2:04pm  Bush 50.7-48.4%
		
The PRELIMINARY poll was adjusted to match to the FINAL vote
count. 		
Are we to believe the revised weightings from the preliminary
13.047 respondents to to the final 13,660?

1- Kerry's 54-45 female vote dropped to 51-48%? 
Gore won females by 54-43 in the FINAL 2000 exit poll.		
		
2- The PartyID MIX went from 38/35/27 to 37/37/26? 
It was 39/35/26 in Clinton and Gore's FINAL Exit Polls.	
		
3- Kerry went from a solid 52-45% to just 49-48% of the
independents? 
Gore won them by 52-44 in the 2000 FINAL.		
		
4- Respondents who voted for Gore dropped from 39 to 37% while
those who voted for Bush rose from 41 to 43?
Didn’t Gore win the popular vote? 
Then how come Bush voters outnumbered Gore voters by 6%? 		
Are we to believe Gore voters decided to stay home this time?
HOW DOES THIS STAT JIBE WITH THE RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER
THEORY? 

5- Kerry dropped from 57 to 54% of those who did not vote in
2000? 			
6- Kerry's share of first-time voters fell from 55 to 53%?			
			
7- Kerry's share of moderates dropped from 57-41 to 54-45?
Gore won them by 52-44%.
			
8- Kerry dropped 3% in each religious group?			
			
9- Kerry dropped from 60 to 54% in those who decided late?
Challengers always do much better than that.			
			
			
Summary of Deviations from PRELIMINARY to FINAL:			

CATEGORY	 Bush	Kerry	Nader

GENDER	       3.00%	-3.00%	-1.00%
AGE	       3.11%	-2.57%	-0.71%
INCOME	       3.48%	-2.88%	-0.83%
EDUCATION	 3.19%	-2.39%	-0.75%
PARTY ID	 3.19%	-2.80%	-0.66%
IDEOLOGY	 3.39%	-2.60%	-0.79%
RELIGION	 2.87%	-2.86%	-1.01%
MILITARY	 2.82%	-2.82%	-1.00%
DECIDED	       3.27%	-3.73%	-0.35%
2000 VOTE	 3.73%	-2.75%	-0.83%
FIRST VOTE	 3.00%	-2.00%	0.00%
			
AVERAGE      3.19%	-2.76%	-0.72%
			
			
			
			
			
Comparison Detail: Preliminary to Final
Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding			
									
						WEIGHTED TOTAL		
CATEGORY MIX	 Bush	Kerry	Nader	  Bush	Kerry	Nader	

GENDER
PRELIMINARY
Male 	   46%	52%	47%	1%	23.9%	21.6%	0.5%	
Female   54%  45%      54%	1%	24.3%	29.2%	0.5%	
	   100%				48.22%	50.78%	1.00%	
									
FINAL									
Male     46%    55%  44%     0      25.3%	20.2%	0.0%	
Female   54%    48%  51%     0 	25.9%	27.5%	0.0%	
	    100%  		      51.22%	47.78%	0.00%	
			Deviation	3.00%	-3.00%	-1.00%	
									
AGE
PRELIMINARY									
18-29 	17%	43%	56%	1%		7.3%	9.5%	0.2%	
30-44 	27%	50%	49%	1%		13.5%	13.2%	0.3%	
45-59 	30%	47%	51%	1%		14.1%	15.3%	0.3%	
60+	26%	51%	48%	1%		13.3%	12.5%	0.3%	
	100%					48.17%	50.53%	1.00%	
FINAL									
18-29 	17%	45%	54%	0		7.7%	9.2%	0.0%	
30-44 	29%	53%	46%	1%		15.4%	13.3%	0.3%	
45-59 	30%	51%	48%	0		15.3%	14.4%	0.0%	
60+	24%	54%	46%	0		13.0%	11.0%	0.0%	
	100%					51.28%	47.96%	0.29%	
				Deviation	3.11%	-2.57%	-0.71%	
									
INCOME   
PRELIMINARY									
0- 15	9%	33%	66%	1%		3.0%	5.9%	0.1%	
15-30	15%	39%	59%	1%		5.9%	8.9%	0.2%	
30-50	22%	47%	52%	1%		10.3%	11.4%	0.2%	
50-75	23%	53%	45%	1%		12.2%	10.4%	0.2%	
75-100	13%	50%	49%	0%		6.5%	6.4%	0.0%	
100-150	11%	53%	45%	2%		5.8%	5.0%	0.2%	
150-200	4%	53%	47%	0%		2.1%	1.9%	0.0%	
200+	3%	58%	41%	1%		1.7%	1.2%	0.0%	
	100%					47.54%	51.01%	0.94%	

FINAL									
0- 15	8%	36%	63%	0		2.9%	5.0%	0.0%	
15-30	15%	42%	57%	0		6.3%	8.6%	0.0%	
30-50	22%	49%	50%	0		10.8%	11.0%	0.0%	
50-75	23%	56%	43%	0		12.9%	9.9%	0.0%	
75-100 14%	55%	45%	0		7.7%	6.3%	0.0%	
100-150 11%	57%	42%	1%		6.3%	4.6%	0.1%	
150-200 4%	58%	42%	0		2.3%	1.7%	0.0%	
200+	  3%	63%	35%	0		1.9%	1.1%	0.0%	
	100%					51.02%	48.13%	0.11%	
				Deviation	3.48%	-2.88%	-0.83%	

EDUCATION
PRELIMINARY									
No H.S.	       4%	47%   	52%	1%		1.9%	2.1%	0.0%	
H.S.Grad	22%	48%	51%	1%		10.6%	11.2%	0.2%	
College	       31%	51%     47% 	1%		15.8%	14.6%	0.3%	
CollGrad	26%	50%	48%	1%		13.0%	12.5%	0.3%	
Postgrad 	17%	40%	58%	2%		6.8%	9.9%	0.3%	
	    100%					48.05%	50.21%	1.17%	
									
FINAL									
No H.S.         4%	49%	50%	0		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	
H.S. Grad	22%	52%	47%	0		11.4%	10.3%	0.0%	
College	        32%    54%	46%	0		17.3%	14.7%	0.0%	
Coll Grad	26%	52%	46%	1%		13.5%	12.0%	0.3%	
Postgrad 	16%	44%	55%	1%		7.0%	8.8%	0.2%	
	  100%					      51.24%	47.82%	0.42%	
				         Deviation	3.19%	-2.39%	-0.75%	

PARTY-ID 
PRELIMINARY									
Dem	38%	9%	90%	1%		3.4%	34.2%	0.4%	
Repub	35%	92%	7%	0%		32.2%	2.5%	0.0%	
Ind	27%	45%	52%	2%		12.2%	14.0%	0.5%	
	100%					47.77%	50.69%	0.92%	
FINAL									
Dem	37%	11%	89%	0		4.1%	32.9%	0.0%	
Repub	37%	93%	6%	0		34.4%	2.2%	0.0%	
Ind	26%	48%	49%	1%		12.5%	12.7%	0.3%	
	100%					50.96%	47.89%	0.26%	
				Deviation	3.19%	-2.80%	-0.66%	

IDEOLOGY 
PRELIMINARY									
Lib	22%	12%	86%	1%		2.6%	18.9%	0.2%	
Mod	45%	41%	57%	1%		18.5%	25.7%	0.5%	
Con	33%	82%	16%	1%		27.1%	5.3%	0.3%	
	100%					48.15%	49.85%	1.00%	
FINAL									
Lib	21%	13%	85%	1%		2.7%	17.9%	0.2%	
Mod	45%	45%	54%	0		20.3%	24.3%	0.0%	
Con	34%	84%	15%	0		28.6%	5.1%	0.0%	
	100%					51.54%	47.25%	0.21%	
				Deviation	3.39%	-2.60%	-0.79%	
									
RELIGION 
PRELIMINARY									
Prot	53%	56%	43%	1%		29.7%	22.8%	0.5%	
Cath	27%	49%	50%	1%		13.2%	13.5%	0.3%	
Jewish	3%	23%	77%	0%		0.7%	2.3%	0.0%	
Other	7%	20%	75%	4%		1.4%	5.3%	0.3%	
None	10%	29%	70%	1%		2.9%	7.0%	0.1%	
	100%					47.90%	50.85%	1.18%	
FINAL									
Prot	53%	59%	40%	0		31.3%	21.2%	0.0%	
Cath	27%	52%	47%	0		14.0%	12.7%	0.0%	
Jewish	3%	25%	74%	0		0.8%	2.2%	0.0%	
Other	7%	23%	74%	1%		1.6%	5.2%	0.1%	
None	10%	31%	67%	1%		3.1%	6.7%	0.1%	
	100%					50.77%	47.99%	0.17%	
				Deviation	2.87%	-2.86%	-1.01%	

MILITARY 
PRELIMINARY									
Yes 	18%	55%	43%	1%		9.9%	7.7%	0.2%	
No 	82%	46%	53%	1%		37.7%	43.5%	0.8%	
	100%					47.62%	51.20%	1.00%	
FINAL									
Yes 	18%	57%	41%	0		10.3%	7.4%	0.0%	
No 	82%	49%	50%	0		40.2%	41.0%	0.0%	
	100%					50.44%	48.38%	0.00%	
				Deviation	2.82%	-2.82%	-1.00%	

WHEN DECIDED
PRELIMINARY									
Today     6%	40%	53%	5%		2.4%	3.2%	0.3%	
3days     3%	41%	53%	4%		1.2%	1.6%	0.1%	
Week      2%	51%	48%	1%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	
Month     10%	38%	60%	1%		3.8%	6.0%	0.1%	
Before    79%	50%	50%	0%		39.5%	39.5%	0.0%	
	100%					47.95%	51.23%	0.54%	
FINAL									
Today      5%	45%	52%	1%		2.3%	2.6%	0.1%	
3days       4%	42%	55%	1%		1.7%	2.2%	0.0%	
Wee         2%	51%	48%	0		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	
Month      10%	44%	54%	1%		4.4%	5.4%	0.1%	
Before	79%	53%	46%	0%		41.9%	36.3%	0.0%	
	  100%					51.22%	47.50%	0.19%	
				Deviation	3.27%	-3.73%	-0.35%	

2000 VOTE 
PRELIMINARY									
NO	17%	41%	57%	2%		7.0%	9.7%	0.3%	
GORE	39%	8%	91%	1%		3.1%	35.5%	0.4%	
BUSH	41%	90%	10%	0%		36.9%	4.1%	0.0%
Nader	3%	13%	65%	12%		0.4%	2.0%	0.4%
						47.38%	51.23%	1.09%
FINAL								
NO	17%	45%	54%	1%		7.7%	9.2%	0.2%
GORE	37%	10%	90%	0%		3.7%	33.3%	0.0%
BUSH	43%	91%	9%	0%		39.1%	3.9%	0.0%
Nader	3%	21%	71%	3%		0.6%	2.1%	0.1%
						51.11%	48.48%	0.26%
				Deviation	3.73%	-2.75%	-0.83%

FIRST TIME VOTE								
PRELIMINARY								
Yes	11%	43%	55%	1%		4.7%	6.1%	0.1%
No	89%	48%	50%	1%		42.7%	44.5%	0.9%
						47.45%	50.55%	1.00%
FINAL								
Yes	11%	46%	53%	1%		5.1%	5.8%	0.1%	
No	89%	51%	48%	1%		45.4%	42.7%	0.9%	
						50.45%	48.55%	1.00%	
				Deviation	3.00%	-2.00%	0.00%	
									

[FogerRox]

1. So TIA--- ah em--are you saying Kerry won? >wink<

[papau]

2. nice work TIA - I hope you land a book contract!

:-)

[TruthIsAll]

3. The morphing of the weights is fascinating - and very revealing

.

[TruthIsAll]

4. Deviations from prelim. exit poll to final exit poll to the vote

Kerry:
Prelim.Exit 50.73
Final Exit 47.97
Deviation -2.76

Prelim.Exit 50.73
Vote 48.24
Deviation: -2.49

Final Exit 47.97
Vote 48.24
Deviation +0.27
............................................
Bush:
Prelim.Exit 47.91
Final Exit 51.10
Deviation +3.19

Prelim.Exit 47.91
Vote 50.73
Deviation: +2.82

Final Exit 51.10
Vote 50.73
Deviation -0.37

[TruthIsAll]

5. What happened to the Nader vote

It virtually dissapears (-0.63%) from the preliminary to the final.
Roundoff hides the actual numbers.

Why do they do this?
Why not at least one decimal place?

Fudge.

Que Bono?

[Carolab]

6. Infallible logic here.

Then how come Bush voters outnumbered Gore voters by 6%?
Are we to believe Gore voters decided to stay home this time?
HOW DOES THIS STAT JIBE WITH THE RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER
THEORY?

[davidgmills]

7. It doesn't but it does jibe with

the computer election coup theory.

Good work as usual TIA.

[ihelpu2see]

8. TIA, it makes you think that the Exit poll people held some

"sampling" back, so that in the end they could adjust the #s and say that exit polls are reliable?? I say "sampling" for the obvious reason, I think the Nadar vote totally going away is the final nail in the coffin!!! Lets hope for continued action on the Ohio vote and for an outcome that will confirm, in the least, that Rove provided the intel for Blackwell to cook the election in Ohio

[Peace Patriot]

9. This "final weighting" is just ridiculous!

For one thing, the Dems had a blowout success in new voter registrations in 2004--Dems 57%, vs. Repubs 41%. Now think about all those new Democratic voter registrants. They certainly didn't register and vote for the first time to vote for Bush! And think about HOW they were prodded to register and vote, and by whom--family, friends, co-workers, the repeat Gore 2000 voters, probably still angry over the 2000 stolen election and everything that's happened since (unjust war, etc.). Are THOSE people dragging their relatives and friends to the polls---to vote for Bush?? Did they do that, and then themselves forget to vote? And Kerry also got 64% of the 3rd party vote, according to polls cited by Dr. Steven Freeman. The "final weighting" is UNREAL. It is B.S.!

Here's Freeman's analysis:

Table 2.2. Expected Presidential Votes based on Changes From the 2000 Election

----------Dem (G or K)---------Bush ------------3rd Party--------Tot

2000:----50,999,897 (48%)---50,456,002 (48%)---3,949,201 (4%)---105,405,100
2004:----57,890,314 (48%)---61,194,773 (51%)---1,170,071 (1%)---120,255,158

Increase:---6,890,417--------10,738,771----minus(2,779,130)-----14,850,058 (14%)


(Distributing the votes on a reasonable expectation formula:)

(1) 95%
of 00 vote----48,400,00------47,900,000---------3,800,000------100,000,000

(2) 3rd
Party -----2,300,000 (64%)------600,000 (17%)
-----------------------------------------------New voters: 20,200,000

(3) New
Voters
distrib'ed ----11,500,000 (57%)---8,300,000 (41%)

Expected
Total --------62,200,000-------56,800,000


Discre-
pancy --------(4,300,000)-------4,400.000


Freeman explains this very simply in his section entitled, "The Numbers Don’t Add Up." He says that, in 2000, Gore won the popular vote by more than half a million, but in 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 3.3 million—yet there were only two major changes in the voting population: 1) the 3rd party vote declined by 2.8 million, and 2) get-out-the-vote campaigns. 95% of the 2000 electorate voted in the 2004 election. That gives Kerry a base of 48.4 million (Gore voters), and Bush 47.9 million. Election night polls showed that Kerry got 64% of ex-Nader voters (2.5 million) and Bush got only 17% (600,000). In 2004, Dems beat Repubs in new voter registration by 57% to 41%. And when you add these three blocks of voters together—the base vote from 2000, the 3rd Party vote, and new voter registration—"…it looks as though Kerry somehow received 4,300,000 votes less than he should have, and Bush somehow received over 4,400,000 votes more than he should have."

----

"Hypotheses for Explaining the Exit Poll-Official Count Discrepancy in the 2004 US Presidential Election" - http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm

----

Kerry won by 4 to 8 million votes--probably more (when you take spoilage and racist vote suppression into account).

----

This B.S. from Mitofsky and the BushCons reminds me of "Church History" taught to me in a Catholic grammar school in the 1950s. Mind-bogglingly false. Twisted. Warped. Every story, every paragraph full of self-serving lies.

But it taught me a thing or two about propaganda. For that I will be eternally grateful.

[bleever]

10. Does. Not. Add. Up.

Makes. No. Sense.

And now that *'s charm offensive has been topped off by Putin calling him on his press manipulation, and the role of the electoral college in his 2000 "election", people are going to grow in willingness to question whether or not we really have an elected president.

Wow, the KGB-bred president of Russia, pointing out the Stalin in a U.S. president: I guess that's the kind of world we're living in right now.

:shrug:

and,

:thumbsup:

[TruthIsAll]

11. Naysays, come on, "weigh" in on the 6% difference between

the 43% who voted for Bush in 2000 vs. the 37% who voted for Gore. Rather than Reluctant Bush Responders, isn't this an indication of Reluctant Kerry Responders?

Or is something else going on here?

And while you're at it, "weigh in" on the other weighting changes in the morphing of the Preliminary Exit Poll to the recorded vote-matching Final.

Party ID
Gender
First time Voter

etc etc etc

Next spin, please.

[FogerRox]

12. Reminds me a conversation I've had witha few friends here in NJ

It goes sumtin like this:
GOre won NJ in 2000 by 16%, which one of those voters then turned around and voted for Bush in 2004?

And additionally: there was a poll in NJ that said IIRC
Bush 56%
Kerry 44%

Yeah right, about a week later IIRC, the poller said opps, we used a 60% repub sample. Well in a dead heat Bush/Kerry would have come out 60% Bush 40% Kerry. But it didnt, the poll had Bush coming in 4% lower (56% vs. 60%), which to me suggests Kerry by 8%, yet Kerry took NJ by IIRC about 5%.

Which suggests a 3% hack the vote effort here in NJ.

[anaxarchos]

13. You have just set up a difficult dilema...

Argue one way, and you support the exit polls show Kerry won. Argue the other and you not only support "Reluctant Kerry Responders" but potentially the widespread impact of voter suppression, purging the registration rolls, etc.

What to do? What to do...

[FogerRox]

14. What to do?--speak the language of Revolution---not just guns, I mean

[dzika]

15. Why do they even bother weighting the exit polls?

The final exit polls are weighted to match the vote total. My understanding is that this is supposed to correct errors in the exit polls so that the details are meaningful for understanding the breakdown of actual voters.

Since voters don't provide demographic information with each vote, there is no way to tell if the weighted exit poll details match the details of the actual voters.

In each of TIA's 9 points above, the weighted exit polls are called into question due to significant deviation from the 2000 final exit polls. The comparison to the 2000 vote, point number 4, is particularly interesting because it is in direct contradiction to the facts.


I'm wondering why the media always seems to only publish the most recent exit poll numbers on their web sites. If there is nothing sinister going on then why wouldn't they provide a historical trend of polling results from throughout the day?

Why doesn't the media provide both the final weighted and un-weighted numbers? Why is it that they seem hell-bent on keeping the process behind exit polling a mystery?

Finally, if the un-weighted final exit polls were wrong as Mitofsky claims then what is the purpose in weighting it at all? Is there a reason to believe that when weighted to the final vote the other details of the exit poll would not still be flawed?


Clearly, TIA's point number 4 shows that the question of Gore respondents can't be trusted. Given that fact alone, I don't see how anyone serious about researching the 2004 vote would trust any of the details in the weighted final poll.

[berniew1]

16. Do you have the references for your 2 sets of EP data??

[TruthIsAll]

17. Links

HERE'S THE LINK TO THE "PRELIMINARY" 13047 SAMPLE EXIT POLL POSTED NOV.3 ON THE NEP/WP SITE:

http:
//media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

Here are links to the National Exit Poll demographics.
1996 CNN National Exit Poll 11/06/96
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/elections/natl.exit ...

2000 MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.com/m/d2k/g/polllaunch.asp

THE TRUE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL OF 13047

[TruthIsAll]

18. Here is the FINAL for 2004

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

[TruthIsAll]

19. WTF! EARLY DECIDERS 53-46 FOR BUSH? KERRY LED IN THE POLLS PRIOR TO OCT.

Are we to believe that scores of pre-election polls WERE ALL WRONG and the FINAL National exit poll "when decided" weightings are correct?

Kerry was leading in all the polls until Sept., when Bush stated to come back. But according to most national and state polls, Kerry took back the lead in the final week.

So how could 79% of responders who decided early (prior to October) have been 53-46 for Bush in the FINAL poll?

The PRELIMINARY poll had this VERY large group tied at 50/50.
Seems just about right, when you factor in the Kerry September swoon.

[anaxarchos]

20. Kick... n/t

[TruthIsAll]

21. Must be a good one, naysays nowhere to be found...

They are conflicted on which of the following to use in their next salvo:

1) The Reluctant Bush Responder theory
or
2) The Final National Exit Poll, which states that respondents who voted for Bush outnumbered those who voted for Gore by 43-37%.

If they choose 1) then Mitofsky must have applied bogus weightings to match the recorded votes. So the preliminary exit poll of 13,047 which shows Kerry winning by 51-48% was right after all.

If they choose 2) Mitofsky is left with election fraud as the only possible explanation for the exit poll discrepancies. So the Reluctant Bush Responder theory is no longer possible. Which means fraud was the cause. Which also means that Kerry must have won.

The two choices are in conflict.
Both cannot be true.
Saying one is true negates the other.

Yet one argument cannot be true while the other is false.
BOTH must be true for Bush to have won.
Therefore, both explanations are FALSE.

Either way, the Naysays are in Check.
And I'm not a chess-player.

[anaxarchos]

22. It IS amazing that this is the thread that doesn't get any arguement. n/t