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...it being unauditable and unrecountable (no paper trail--a quite deliberate condition created by Tom Delay's blockade of a paper trail in Congress), we really do have to speculate, deduce and think backwards from the facts.
I think there is almost no question that the election was essentially stolen electronically-- and I think this partly because of the elaborate lengths that Bushites went to, to set it up that way.
They used HAVA ('00-inspired election reform) to completely corrupt our election system with $4+ billion larded onto the states, much of it poured into the pockets of the major Bush donors and activists at Diebold and ES&S who sold shoddy, expensive, unreliable, insecure, and extremely fraud-prone electronic voting systems to the states; and failed to provide any common sense controls (and blockaded those proposed by Democrats). Think about it. They permitted "trade secret" proprietary programming code, owned and controlled by Bush partisans, for the counting of our votes; they fought any paper audit trail; they permitted lavish lobbying of state officials, and failed to ban "revolving door" employment (the former CA Republican Sec of State who bought Sequoia systems now works for Sequoia, as does his chief aid, etc.).
The fact that we have to speculate, deduce and think backwards from the facts--most particularly because of the lack of controls on electronic voting systems--IS PART OF THE EVIDENCE OF FRAUD, and points directly at electronic voting as the means.
In this out of control fascist coup that we are suffering, we sometimes forget the basics: that elections have to be TRANSPARENT to be valid, and that partisan control of the vote count IS NOT OKAY.
We also have to SERIOUSLY QUESTION any story about the election that comes out of the White House, for instance, that Karen Hughes told Bush he was losing. When was the last time you heard anything truthful out of Karen Hughes' mouth, or Bush's, or Karl Rove's? I think it's much more likely the whole thing was play-acting--part of the plan. And how about that howler of Rove's recently (also touted around prior to the election) that the Bushites had an "invisible" get out the vote campaign? The fact is that the Democrats blew them away in new voter registration in 2004, nearly 60/40(!) and also blew them away among swing voters (most new voters, independent voters and Nader voters voted for Kerry). There is solid evidence for that. There is NO EVIDENCE for any "invisible" Rovian GOTV campaign.
So (need I repeat this?): Don't believe everything (or anything) your hear from Bushites.
Here's my speculation, based on my instincts on election night (when I first conceived the outline of it) and based on extensive review of the mountain of election fraud evidence since that time:
The election fraud scheme was well thought out, and well-planned in advance, and consisted of a main plan and several backup plans (contingency plans for a Kerry blow-out, which was clearly happening on 11/2):
Plan #1 required very few people and utilized the easy access to electronic voting systems that had been quite deliberately set up with the HAVA billions and lack of controls. One hacker, a couple of minutes, a few lines of code. "Back door," "front door," "side door"?--wireless? internal modems? pre-programmed and self-erasing?--we don't know the details yet because the evidence was quite deliberately hidden. They used this access to steal %'s of the vote, here and there, in many states, concentrating on the east coast (as TIA has shown) to flip the popular vote early on, and probably also with special focus on the battleground states (to secure the Electoral vote).
Plan #2 required a number of political operatives in certain states, and was an old-fashioned, Rovian vote-stealing and voter-intimidation scheme, involving Kenneth Blackwell, of course, in Ohio, Jeb Bush's machine in Florida, Texas Republicans (who made threatening phone calls to former felons in Ohio), the RNC-paid people in the west who were shredding Dem voter registrations, and other such blatant, bald-faced, highly visible thuggism.
Plan #3 was the "terrorist alert" plan, well set up by the many, phony "terrorist alerts" planted in the news just prior to the election. This is the backup plan that Wayne Madsen may have stumbled upon (payments to agents who would implement the plan, if needed). I'm fairly sure it was intended for the west and California in particular--to shut down major vote centers like Los Angeles with tied up freeways, etc.--and with Schwarzenegger now in place to duke it out with Democratic Sec of State Kevin Shelley over the validity of a partial vote. (They soon got rid of Shelley--who had sued Diebold and decertified their DREs in Calif. prior to the election.) I think this plan may also have something to do with Dick Cheney's weird, inexplicable flight to Hawaii two days before the election. (The V-P's plane in trouble over the Pacific???). (They put out the ridiculous story that Hawaii might go "red.")
Plans #1 and #2 took care of the Kerry blowout. Plan #3 wasn't needed (except in Warren County, Ohio, where the vote count was put into lockdown--all public monitors excluded--by a phony terrorist alert).
Plan #2 (Ohio, Florida, etc.) had pre-election, election day, and post-election elements to it (as did all parts of the plan). I have a feeling that old pols like Rove were not too confident in the promises of the new techie Bushites, and trusted his own thuggish methods more. The pre-election stuff went forward (Blackwell doing his best to limit Dem voter registration with new, arbitrary rules, such as the 80lb. paper requirement), but the election day stuff--highly visible, massive violations of the Voting Rights Act--was implemented because Kerry's vote was so big. (Guestimate: a 10% margin for Kerry.)
I was wondering why they would do anything that visible, when they had access to the electronic vote counts--and it may be because the electronic vote count fraud was pre-programmed to certain percentages, and could not be that easily changed. (This may be a clue to who, what and where.) When the Kerry landslide started happening, word went out to Blackwell and his operatives to short the Dem precincts on voting machines, to unfairly challenge long-registered voters and force "provisional" ballots upon them, and all the rest--highly visible, illegal or unethical actions--to at least secure the Electoral Vote in Ohio, while they implemented other components of Plan #1 (the electronic plan) such as election day access to vote counting systems (via internal modems? wireless? private company techs wandering around the central tabulators and "servicing" the machines?).
Plan #2 (thuggism) in Florida involved the pre-election purges of black voters, 50,000 absentee ballots "lost in the mail, and other such blatant fraud, and combined with Plan #1 (electronic) through Jeb Bush's onerous control of elections systems in Florida (legal action taken to prevent a paper trail, etc.). (The UC Berkeley statistical team found 130,000 to 260,000 "phantom votes" for Bush in Florida's three main Dem counties--Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach--in electronic vs. other voting methods. DU analyst "ignatzmouse" found a similar problem in No. Carolina--an inexplicable 9% edge to Bush in electronic voting.)
I think you have to have a narrative in your mind--a working hypothesis--to investigate such a massive, complex crime as this one. The more we study this election, the more we find evidence for the above narrative. The exit polls--and the thing that really sticks in my craw, the FALSIFICATION of the exit poll data on everybody's TV screens on election night (their ALTERING the exit poll data to hide the fact that Kerry won the exit polls, and to fit the data to the "official tally" Bush win)--is only one piece of this narrative. (What was THAT all about--a late night Rove phone call to the lapdog TV networks?).
Given the preelection polls (and Zogby saying that Bush could not win), the huge Democratic success in new voter registration, the stats on how new voters, independents and Nader voters voted--the big enthusiastic crowds for Kerry, the brainwashed, thoroughly "vetted," bussed in crowds for Bush (the loyalty oath signers)--and given all of the above--the deliberate setting up of a fraudulent election SYSTEM, and the evidence for INTENT to commit fraud--and...
now...
...Bush's astonishingly low approval rating, down to 35% (!), and consistently low over the last year, with 60% to 70% of Americans disapproving of every major Bush policy, foreign and domestic...
...it should not surprise us that Kerry won the exit polls. There really doesn't need to be an explanation for it. That anybody is trying to "explain" it (Edison-Mitofsky, for instance) is PART of the false, fraudulent, lying, non-transparent, invalid, undemocratic, tyrannical, illusion of an election that took place on 11/2/04.
They can't prove Bush won. So they lie. That's the sum of it. And they set it up that way--to be unprovable--in order to use illusions, rather than fact and legitimacy, as the key component of their power over us. They can't win on the facts. The fact is that they are lying, thieving mass murderers. They are not representative of the majority, and are not even close to being. They have no legitimacy. All they have is illusions, which Karl Rove & Co. have become quite skilled at manipulating, and which the lapdog news monopolies are helping to create.
If you have an election that can only be verified by inference--and all this evidence of a wrong outcome--you do not have a democracy. You have tyranny. And we must realize that NO AMOUNT OF FACTS AND "SMOKING GUNS" will automatically result in justice--especially given the news monopoly collusion on election night (and other egregious lapdogism, i.e., the Iraq war, Halliburton, the federal debt, 9/11, etc.).
Lord knows I'm not saying: don't investigate. I just think that we need to understand the whole picture of injustice and illegitimacy that we are looking at, and living through--and this bigger picture needs to inform the investigation and the search for truth.
We need to be thinking "outside the box." WHY are we SPENDING SO MUCH TIME defending exit polls that merely CONFIRM all other known facts--a mountain of evidence of a wrong outcome, and of means, motive, opportunity and intent?
I think TIA has the right approach to the exit polls. Show how impossible the final, tweaked number is (and other analytical revelations); search for the pattern of fraud (for instance, east to west); debunk any absurd "theories" that are thrown out as whitewashing; and, I would add, focus on the withholding of the data, and on the falsification of the polls on election night, because these two non-statistical facts not only tell us of the NEED to suppress the true exit poll results, they also tell us some things about the fraud plan itself.
For instance, they tell us that E/M was probably not a direct participant in the preelection and election day stages of the plan--their polls told the truth (a substantial Kerry victory, even after all the vote suppression)--but that E/M and the alphabet soup of news monopoly corporations that hired them clearly anticipated the need to suppress the exit polls, in their plan to "adjust" the exit polls to fit the official tally late that night, and in having the "reluctant Bush responder" theory handy, to be utilized if anyone cried foul--as well as this silly thing that they recently made up, about "enthusiastic pro-Kerry poll-takers." These built-in fudge factors indicate some direct guilt, but probably mostly pressure and arm-twisting (especially re: E/M).
Let me just back up here a moment to say that this election system--a new electronic voting system being tested out nationwide for the first time--cried out for proper verification. Exit polls are used worldwide for just this purpose--to verify elections and check for fraud--ESPECIALLY in an unusual circumstance like this (widespread suspicion of fraud in '00; new voting system, with all kinds of red flags over it). For E/M and the news monopolies to then design an exit poll with these fudge factors--the doctoring of the result (polluting the exit poll data with the official tally), the use of demographics, the withholding of the data, etc.--is serious malfeasance, in the first place.
So I'm not letting them off the hook, as to direct involvement in PLANNING a fraudulent election. I'm just trying to suss out the extent of the conspiracy. The electronic totals went from the Bush-company controlled electronic tabulators directly to AP, thence to the TV networks, which, late in the day, then began feeding the official tallies into the exit polls, changing the exit polls. The exit polls (in reality) continued to show a Kerry win, but those results were suppressed, the system shut down, and, later, a new exit poll model appeared, miraculously changed to a Bush win. It now appeared that Bush had won the exit polls AND the official tally--but only one of those things was true.
How do we know that AP wasn't fiddling with the official tally? (What was the security between the AP computer and the official central tabulators?) (AP had sole control of the official results being fed to the TV networks and other news monopolies.)
To me, the complicity of the news monopolies is much worse than the fact of a stolen election. Fascists will steal elections. We can count on it. But the news monopolies' and the pollsters' involvement in creating the illusion of a Bush win--at whatever stage of the game they became involved in it--has deprived us of one of our chief weapons against tyranny--journalistic integrity, the Fourth Estate.
I've gotten off on a tangent here--but maybe that's okay. My point is that we need to think backwards from the facts, and think creatively, and keep the CONTEXT always in mind. And we need to develop working hypotheses and narratives, and keep testing them against the facts. And we need to hesitate when someone rules something out just because it seems too big, or too improbable, or because it violates some illusion we have (for instance, that the news monopolies wouldn't act in concert to deliberately give us false election data--clearly they did so in the case of the exit polls!).
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