Tom Paine: Timing And Turnout In Ohio

[MelissaB]

Timing And Turnout In Ohio

Walter Mebane
July 21, 2005

Walter Mebane is professor of government at Cornell University. He was a member of the team that produced the DNC Ohio 2004 study. Before that, he worked as part of the National Research Commission on Elections and Voting created by the Social Science Research Council to monitor, analyze and report on problems and successes in the 2004 election.

On June 29, 2005, John Tanner of the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), wrote to Nick Soulas, Assistant Prosecuting Attorney, Franklin County, Ohio, to report the results of "an investigation into the November 2, 2004 general election in Franklin County, prompted by allegations that Franklin County systematically assigned fewer voting machines in polling places serving predominantly black communities as compared to its assignment of machines in predominantly white communities." While far from a glowing evaluation, the conclusion Tanner stated must have pleased Ohio officials: "Franklin County assigned voting machines in a non-discriminatory manner. Accordingly, there was no violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, 42 U.S.C. 1973, and we are thus closing our file." Headlines two days later broadcast that gist. "Department of Justice finds no racial disparities in Ohio voting," went an AP story. "Justice Clears Ohio in Voting Booth Bias," said another.

The truth is not so simple. The DOJ report concedes there were more registered voters per voting machine in precincts that had many African-American voters than in precincts that did not. In fact, using data from Franklin County, I calculate that the quartile of precincts with the largest proportion of African-American voters had 23.7 percent more registered voters per voting machine than the quartile of precincts with the smallest proportion. One might think that fact would end the argument, but the DOJ notes that different results appear when one looks at the number of ballots cast. The DOJ reports states that "the allocation of voting machines actually favored black voters because more white voters were voting on each voting machine than black voters." Indeed, in the quartile of precincts with the smallest proportion of African-American voters, there were 3.7 percent more ballots cast per machine than in the quartile with the largest. This is the basis for the DOJ's conclusion.

The Turnout Question

It is easy to see the big hole in the DOJ analysis. The Democratic National Committee's study of the 2004 election in Ohio (Democracy at Risk: The 2004 Election in Ohio) finds that throughout the state, failures in election administration caused racial disparities in voters' election day experiences. African-American voters reported waiting an average of 52 minutes before voting, while white voters reported waiting an average of 18 minutes. Three percent of voters who went to the polls left their polling places and did not return due to the long lines. Throughout Ohio, reductions in voter turnout are associated with inadequate provision of voting machines. The DNC study finds that turnout is typically two to three percent lower in precincts that were allocated fewer machines.

...snip

Should the DOJ have exonerated Franklin County? The argument they used to do so ignored an important fact: The allocation of voting machines reduced voter turnout more among African American voters than among white voters. Probably the simple truth is that Franklin officials made their voting machine allocation decisions using the spring data on active voters, doing little or nothing to respond to the new voter registrations. Was that negligence malicious? Was it criminal? I am not a lawyer, but a clever attorney might argue that the Franklin County machine allocations had a rational and nondiscriminatory basis in the April data. That might legally exculpate them. But the DOJ did not take this approach. The least one can say is there was shamefully negligent administrative failure that deprived thousands of voters of their right to vote.


More: http://www.tompaine.com/articles/20050721/timing_and_turnout_in_ohio.php

[smartvoter]

1. Thanks for posting this. nt

[Fly by night]

2. "The least one can say ...

... is there was shamefully negligent administrative failure that deprived thousands of voters of their right to vote."

And the most one can say is that both Tom Paine and the DNC have ignored the mountains of hard evidence of coordinated, multi-pronged and well-orchestrated election fraud in Ohio, of which racially discriminatory machine allocation is a serious but by no means solitary example.

I cancelled my Tom Paine on-line subscription several months ago after their two Russ Baker puff pieces (as is "what the hell was he smoking when he wrote those?") that concluded that no fraud occurred in Ohio or elsewhere. I will read this new piece to see if they have really changed much since then.

Maybe so, maybe not.

[pat_k]

4. it constitutes a violation of the voting rights act

... is there was shamefully negligent administrative failure that deprived thousands of voters of their right to vote."

And if African Americans were deprived in significantly higher numbers than whites relative to their representation in the population, it constitutes a violation of the voting rights act. No ifs, ands, or buts.

See my other post.

[Fly by night]

8. I'm not denigrating the evidence of racial discrimination at all.

As an eighth generation Mississippian who grew up there in the 60s and fought for civil rights (for women as well as Blacks), I think evidence of racial discrimination is sufficient to hang these traitors high. But why stop there when there is so much more to hang them for? I'm just frustrated that the MASSIVE bundle of multiple tactics to steal the election -- the disenfranchisement of the young and the elderly, the harassment, the unlawful registration purging and the discarding of new Democratic voter registrations, the electronic vote manipulation, the faux recount nonsense, the payoffs to officials at all levels, and the thousands of other systematic dirty tricks perpetuated throughout this country -- are not getting the same attention.

Sure Blacks were discriminated against. But for Brazile et al to release a whitewash report that started and stopped with evidence of racial discrimination in the assignment of voting machines -- without even bothering to interview the many researchers, lawyers and voting rights activists whose evidence for the other tactics to accomplish the FACT of the 2004 election theft has been available for all of us to read and review for the past nine months -- is beyond bullshit. It is complicity in the coverup of the theft of our democracy.

It's not the crime, it's the coverup. Now where have I heard that before? I just wish it were Republicans who would end up absorbing the blame for what just happened -- not some of MY Democrats (Brazile, Cox-Georgia and others) who are turning out to be fellow travelers for this crime of the century.

Makes this yellow dog itch with the red and blue fleas stuck under my collar and biting my neck. At this moment, I would much rather they be BITING MY ASS.

[pat_k]

9. Certainly

I understand your frustration, but as an identifiable group that votes 70-90% Democratic, preventing blacks from voting was a major tactic -- one that has been rampant (and largely ignored by Democrats) across the South for decades.

Certainly, a myriad of other tactics were used, but racial discrimination is a focus for a very simple reason: the voting rights act was specifically designed to address racial discrimination, therefore, racial discrimination will be the focus of any DOJ or Civil Rights Commission investigation of whether or not a jurisdiction violated that act.

[Fly by night]

11. A host of different laws were broken in the 2004 election theft, and ...

... none of these crimes (including the ones involving disenfranchisement of Black voters) are being prosecuted by THIS very White House, nor are they likely to. Just as the same violations in Florida in 2000 were ignored by this very White House.

The Brazile report is factually incorrect and misleading to suggest there was no fraud in Ohio and other states, just racial discrimination. The fact that they never bothered to look at the mountain of evidence does not prove that this evidence does not exist.

If the Democratic Party continues to behave like an ostrich when it comes to the multi-varied evidence for the 2004 election theft, the only consequences will be another goosing (or another feathery butt filled with buckshot) in 2006 and beyond. We need to air all the evidence rather than put our ostrich eggs into any one basket. The revelations regarding different vote-stealing or suppressing tactics will resonate differently with different voters, and we need to increase the resonance until the walls of this very White House come crumbling down.

[pat_k]

12. Sure, primarily at state level

Sure, but a majority are violations of state law. The Voting Rights Act is a key Federal statute.

Don't get me wrong. I want to see as many suits and investigations as possible. For example, I'd love to see a suit akin to Lehto and Wells v. Sequoia and Snohomish County in EVERY state (basic logic of this case: Secret vote counting is unlawful; Use of DREs = secret vote counting; The use of DREs to count votes is unlawful)

But, that doesn't mean we should not make a concerted effort to challenge the erroneous conclusion DOJ reached on Franklin.

[Fly by night]

14. "A key Federal statute" that is being completely ignored.

We are considering a Lehto-type lawsuit here in Tennessee also.

[pat_k]

16. Cool! (on the potential suit is Tennesse)

Were you at the Nashville conference? If so, we might have crossed paths there.

When people learn about the horrors of Election 2000 and Election 2004, they never "unlearn" them. Our numbers can only go one way. As more and more people are activated by the truth, we'll have more success in breaking through the resistance. All the signs are pointing to the start of a "virtuous cycle" -- little successes that bring in more people, that lead to bigger successes that bring in more people, that lead to..."

WRT the violations of the Voting Rights Act. I would love to see an avalanche of complaints filed with the http://www.usccr.gov">Commission on Civil Rights. As you point out, complaints about the DOJ whitewash on Franklin would be just one type of many. Citizens can file complaints. Complaints filed by the DNC would have some clout. Regardless of the Brazile whitewash, I've been asking folks to do what they can to push the DNC to file complaints against the most egregious offenders. If the DNC has insufficient evidence to uncover the truth, they need to kick the commission to use their authority to do comprehensive investigations.

The minions of the Bush Regime can twist the conclusions of an investigation all they want, but the reports inevitably include the truths that are impossible to deny. When the findings of their own investigations expose the truth, it is just a matter of time before the reality behind the false conclusions bubbles up.

[Fly by night]

20. Re: Nashville conference. I was the convener and moderator.

Glad you were there with us. We're about to (finally) post the audio on two web-sites after some unnecessary delays. We hope both freepress.org and Velvet Revolution will host it for us. I will post a thread when the audio is posted.

[pat_k]

21. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!

I didn't realize your identity.

All I have to say is Thank you, thank you, thank you!!

"We have been telling the people that this is the Eleventh Hour. Now you must go back and tell the people that this is the Hour. And there are things to be considered. Where are you living? What are you doing? What are your relationships? Are you in the right relation? Where is your water? Know your garden.

It is time to speak your truth. Create your community. Be good to each other. And do not look outside yourself for the leader. This could be a good time!

There is a river flowing now very fast. It is so great and swift that there are those who will be afraid. They will try to hold onto the shore. They will feel they are being torn apart and they will suffer greatly. Know the river has its destination.

The elders say we must let go of the shore, and push off and into the river, Keep our eyes open, and our head above the water. See who is in there with you and Celebrate. At this time in history, we are to take nothing personally. Least of all ourselves. For the moment that we do, our spiritual growth and journey comes to a halt.

The time of the lone wolf is over, Gather yourselves! Banish the word struggle from your attitude and your vocabulary. All that you do now must be done in a sacred manner. And in celebration. We are the ones we've been waiting for..."

--The Elders, Hopi Nation, Oraibi, Arizona

[pat_k]

3. Intent not required

This article seems to imply that intent to discriminate is necessary. Violations of the Voting Rights Act DO NOT require intent. Barriers to voting that differentially affect African Americans is all that it required. The why doesn’t matter.


African Americans (and others in precincts with a high percentage of AAs) faced significant barriers that were not faced by people in wealthy and predominantly white precincts.

That is a violation.

The civil rights commission found Florida in violation in 2000. The Bush Regime's DOJ took no meaningful action, but the violation stands.

DOJ was absolutely wrong to exonerate Franklin County under the Voting Rights act. The conclusions must be challenged. Anyone know what the legal mechanism would be?

[Time for change]

5. self delete

[Time for change]

6. There's a lot more on Franklin County

A study that looked at voting machine allocation per voter by precinct partisanship http://copperas.com/machinery / showed that machine allocation was far less adequate in precincts that voted for
Kerry. In fact, it appears from looking at the scatterplot that there were about 30 Kerry precincts where there was less than one machine per 440 registered voters, while there were no Bush precincts in this category. This same study showed that “voter turnout” decreased substantially in Franklin County as machine allocation decreased.

And an extensive analysis by Elizabeth Liddle (Febble on DU) came to a similar conclusion http://uscountvotes.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=65&Itemid=63. This is consistent with the DNC report analysis for all of Ohio. Furthermore, as Bob Fitrakis reveals, all this happened while 68 voting machines were available in Franklin County but held back http://www.onlinejournal.com/evoting/111704Fitrakis/111704fitrakis.html .

Richard Hayes Phillips calculates that this low voter turnout induced in Franklin County through the misallocation of voting machines resulted in approximately 17,000 lost votes for Kerry in Columbus alone. This is easy to understand, given the relationship between inadequate numbers of voting machines and “low voter turnout”, and the fact that this problem occurred very disproportionately in minority and Democratic precincts.

So, what does the DNC report have to say about this? It says that those who decided to leave the polls early because of long lines were split evenly between Bush and Kerry voters. This is simply unbelievable, given the highly disproportionate allocation of voting machines to Republican precincts. I think that statement is disturbing.

[Bill Bored]

7. Has anyone looked at the number of races on the ballot

in these precincts? If there were more races in some areas, they'd need more machines per voter because it would take longer to vote.

[Time for change]

10. It's somewhat ironic, but good to remember that Walter Mebane

is the researcher whose group wrote a good portion of the DNC report and came to the conclusion that his analysis provided "strong evidence that there was no widespread fraud" in the Ohio election.

Here is the correspondence I had with him about that: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=382652&mesg_id=382652

[pat_k]

13. Arrrhggghhh

Glad to see you challenged him. How frustrating. What does party affliation have to do with it? Violations of the Voting Rights Act have nothing to do with party.

Of course, when you have more barriers in precincts with high percentages of African Americans -- who voted more than 80% for Kerry -- you are by definition differentially disenfranchising Dems. No forensic analysis needed.


Arrrhggghhh. Even if a forensic analysis were required, get the funds together and sue to get access to the records for goodness sake. Do the required analysis!

[Fly by night]

15. You've been around here for a while so you should know the research ...

... has been done and is still being done. And Time for Change is one of the people who has been doing it (along with TIA, berniew1 (before he was tombstoned) and others).

Since you told TFC to "do the analysis", I would suggest that you read the analyses yourself. You might start with the new Fitrakis et al book (available at www.freepress.org). Once you finish those 700+ pages, you'll start catching up with the rest of us in terms of your awareness of the mountains of evidence for the 2004 election theft.

Racial discrimination is very bad.

Subverting the consent of the governed is worse, because it eliminates the possibility that this democracy can right itself in terms of discrimination and the many other ills foisted by the Republi-Nazis who now hold (illegitimately) the reins of power here.

As a Minnesota voting rights activist said recently, "Election reform is the foundation on which all other reforms are possible."

[pat_k]

17. ??? I think you misread my post - edited

Since you told TFC to "do the analysis"

My post was a response to the response that TFC got -- an expression of frustration with Mebane, not TFC. Specifically, it was the following that promoted my "Aarrgghh!":

The response I received to this question was basically that it was impossible to tell because there was no data available on party affiliation, and with regard to the possibility that electronic fraud played a role in this, there was no evidence found for this “but the kind of data we have are not really suitable to digging into that. A forensic examination of administrative records would be needed to make the case for or against.”

Edited -- original post had the wrong snippet

[pat_k]

18. And...

Subverting the consent of the governed is worse, because it eliminates the possibility that this democracy can right itself in terms of discrimination and the many other ills foisted by the Republi-Nazis who now hold (illegitimately) the reins of power here.

Are you under the impression that I don't think the Election was stolen? That I don't think the single moral tenet on which the constitution, and therefore the nation, rests is the principle that government power can only be derived from the consent of the governed?

Although I don't post much, I would hope that my position is clear. If it is not, check out http://thedeanpeople.org. We launched the Declaration of Intent project on November 12th.

[Time for change]

19. Yes, this whole thing is very frustrating

It's hard to believe that the DNC put out the report that they did.

It's almost as if they've been convinced that exposing what happened in the 2004 election would be bad for the country. I just don't know how to explain it.