Bush needed 16% (1 in 6) Gore 2000 voters to win by 3 million votes

[TruthIsAll]

For Bush to win by 3 million votes, he needed to win at least
16% of Gore 2000 Voters.			

	National Exit Poll: 12:22am, 13047 respondents	

Kerry wins by 3.6mm votes
						
Voted	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Other	Votes	
No	17%	41%	57%	2%	20.78	
Gore	39%	8%	91%	1%	47.68	
Bush	41%	91%	9%	0%	50.13	
Nader	3%	21%	71%	8%	3.67	
	100%	48.03%	51.00%	0.97%	122.26	
	122.26	58.72	62.35	1.19		
						
	Kerry Vote Sensitivity Analysis					
	Bush/Gore weights and Bush % of Gore Votes					
	 2000 Voter Pct of 2004 Turnout					
						
Bush	43.0%	42.0%	41.0%	40.5%	40.0%	39.82%
Gore	37.0%	38.0%	39.0%	39.5%	40.0%	40.25%
Gore%						
to Bush							
5%	50.47%	51.32%	52.17%	52.60%	53.02%	53.24%
6%	50.10%	50.94%	51.78%	52.20%	52.62%	52.84%
7%	49.73%	50.56%	51.39%	51.81%	52.22%	52.43%

8%	49.36%	50.18%	51.00%	51.41%	51.82%	52.03%

9%	48.99%	49.80%	50.61%	51.02%	51.42%	51.63%
10%	48.62%	49.42%	50.22%	50.62%	51.02%	51.23%
11%	48.25%	49.04%	49.83%	50.23%	50.62%	50.82%
12%	47.88%	48.66%	49.44%	49.83%	50.22%	50.42%
13%	47.51%	48.28%	49.05%	49.44%	49.82%	50.02%
14%	47.14%	47.90%	48.66%	49.04%	49.42%	49.62%
15%	46.77%	47.52%	48.27%	48.65%	49.02%	49.21%
16%	46.40%	47.14%	47.88%	48.25%	48.62%	48.81%

******************************************************


	Final National Exit Poll: 1:25pm, 13660 respondents			

Bush wins by 3.2mm votes.
But this is mathematically impossible.

According to the FINAL weightings, Bush got 52.57mm votes in
2000.
But official 2000 statistics have him at 50.456 mm votes.

Do you believe the Final or do you believe your lying eyes?

						
Voted	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Other	Votes	
No	17%	45%	54%	1%	20.78	
Gore	37%	10%	90%	0%	45.24	
Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%	52.57	
Nader	3%	21%	71%	8%	3.67	
	100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.41%	122.26	
	122.26	62.49	59.27	0.50		
						
	Kerry Vote Sensitivity Analysis					
	Bush/Gore weights and Bush % of Gore Votes					
	 2000 Voter Pct of 2004 Turnout					
						
Bush	43.0%	42.0%	41.0%	40.5%	40.0%	39.82%
Gore	37.0%	38.0%	39.0%	39.5%	40.0%	40.25%
Gore%						
to Bush							
5%	50.33%	51.19%	52.05%	52.48%	52.91%	53.13%
6%	49.96%	50.81%	51.66%	52.09%	52.51%	52.73%
7%	49.59%	50.43%	51.27%	51.69%	52.11%	52.33%
8%	49.22%	50.05%	50.88%	51.30%	51.71%	51.92%
9%	48.85%	49.67%	50.49%	50.90%	51.31%	51.52%

10%	48.48%	49.29%	50.10%	50.51%	50.91%	51.12%

11%	48.11%	48.91%	49.71%	50.11%	50.51%	50.72%
12%	47.74%	48.53%	49.32%	49.72%	50.11%	50.31%
13%	47.37%	48.15%	48.93%	49.32%	49.71%	49.91%
14%	47.00%	47.77%	48.54%	48.93%	49.31%	49.51%
15%	46.63%	47.39%	48.15%	48.53%	48.91%	49.11%
16%	46.26%	47.01%	47.76%	48.14%	48.51%	48.70%

********************************************************

	National Exit Poll: 12:22am, 13047 respondents					
This is the most likely scenario.
We assume 100% Gore/Bush 2000 LIVE voter turnout.					

Kerry wins by 6 million votes

Voted	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Other	Votes	
No	16.93%	41%	57%	2%	20.70	
Gore	40.25%	8%	91%	1%	49.21	
Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%	48.68	
Nader	3.00%	21%	71%	8%	3.67	
	100%	47.03%	51.99%	0.98%	122.26	
	122.26	57.50	63.56	1.20		
						
	Kerry Vote Sensitivity Analysis					
	Bush/Gore weights and Bush % of Gore Votes					
	 2000 Voter Pct of 2004 Turnout					
						
Bush	43.0%	42.0%	41.0%	40.5%	40.0%	39.82%
Gore	37.0%	38.0%	39.0%	39.5%	40.0%	40.25%
Gore%						
to Bush							
5%	50.43%	51.28%	52.13%	52.56%	52.98%	53.20%
6%	50.06%	50.90%	51.74%	52.16%	52.58%	52.80%
7%	49.69%	50.52%	51.35%	51.77%	52.18%	52.39%

8%	49.32%	50.14%	50.96%	51.37%	51.78%	51.99%

9%	48.95%	49.76%	50.57%	50.98%	51.38%	51.59%
10%	48.58%	49.38%	50.18%	50.58%	50.98%	51.19%
11%	48.21%	49.00%	49.79%	50.19%	50.58%	50.78%
12%	47.84%	48.62%	49.40%	49.79%	50.18%	50.38%
13%	47.47%	48.24%	49.01%	49.40%	49.78%	49.98%
14%	47.10%	47.86%	48.62%	49.00%	49.38%	49.58%
15%	46.73%	47.48%	48.23%	48.61%	48.98%	49.17%
16%	46.36%	47.10%	47.84%	48.21%	48.58%	48.77%

[krkaufman]

1. Or get a bunch of people who hadn't voted in 2000. n/t

[TruthIsAll]

4. But he didn't. Kerry won close to 60% of new voters.

/

[ray of light]

2. A library for the Election 2004

It appears SuZ at the Democracy Cell Project is building a long-term "Guide to the Election 2004" library. If you have articles, statistics and specific information to add to it, then please email suz@democracycellproject and she can post it in the library there.

Here's the library in progress right now:

http://www.democracycellproject.net/forum/index.php?showtopic=816

[ray of light]

6. need to change the email address

but editing time elapsed.

email articles and statistics to

[e-mail]

[TruthIsAll]

3. THE GRAPH

[TruthIsAll]

5. So where did Bush get his 13 milion voters from? OTOH?

If he didn't get the New voters,
and he didn't get the Nader voters,
he had to get the Gore voters.

There was no one else.

But why would 1 out of 6 Gore voters vote for the guy who stole it from them in 2000?

If NEW voters (54-59%) went for Kerry and Nader voters did also (71%), it seems logical that Gore voters also went for Kerry - big time.

Why would 1 in 6 desert him?
They wouldn't.

Ok, OTOH, we are waiting for your response.
I know you are reading this.
You don't miss a trick.

Is it too much to ask for that doodle you promised anax on the 120 scenario thread?

You know, real numbers laid out in nice tables.
Anax will surely come looking for them.

[TruthIsAll]

7. CALCULATIONS: to show how many Gore votes Bush needed.

We assume equal 100% turnout of both Gore and Bush voters.

USING THE FINAL 1:25PM EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS):
ONE OUT OF 6 (16.2%) GORE VOTERS HAD TO SWITCH TO BUSH,GIVEN
THAT ONE OUT OF 11 (9.0%) BUSH VOTERS SWITCHED TO KERRY.
THIS ASSUMES KERRY WON NEW VOTERS BY 54/45%.

AT THE 12:22AM TIMELINE (13047 RESPONDENTS): 
KERRY WON NEW VOTERS BY 57/41%. BUSH NEEDED 17.7% OF GORE
VOTERS TO GET HIS 3 MILLION VOTE "MANDATE".

Note: I adjusted Nader/Other percentages slightly (21/71/8)
to 10/64/26) to back into the actual final numbers as close
as possible. In fact, it is more accurate, since the third
party vote total was close to 1%.


Final National Exit Poll
1:25pm 13660 respondents
Voted	Pct	Bush	Kerry	Other	Votes
No	17.31%	45.0%	54.0%	1%	21.16
Gore	40.25%	16.2%	83.8%	0%	49.21 <  16.2
Bush	39.82%	91.0%	9.0%	0%	48.68
Nader	2.62%	10.0%	64.0%	26%	3.20
	100%	50.81%	48.34%	0.85%	122.26
	122.26	62.12	59.10	1.04	

***************************************************

12:22AM 13047 respondents
Voted	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Other	Votes
No	17.31%	41.0%	57.0%	2%	21.16
Gore	40.25%	17.7%	82.3%	0%	49.21 < 17.7
Bush	39.82%	91.0%	9.0%	0%	48.68
Nader	2.62%	10.0%	64.0%	26%	3.20
	100%	50.72%	48.25%	1.03%	122.26
	122.26	62.01	58.99	1.26	

[TruthIsAll]

8. Kick for ANAX: a reference while the "match" goes on. n/t

/

[tommcintyre]

9. kick - In tribute to his tremendous contributions - WHY??? :( n/t

[bleever]

10. Kicking for truth, justice, and TIA's invaluable work.