Do your own analysis: Excel Interactive Election Model Simulation

[autorank]

Here's an Excel interactive program available through this link. Down load and work with the exit polls. Do your own thing and seehow it works...democracy in action...you are the mathematicians!!!

Click Here for Instructions and Download

[applegrove]

1. Again - based on unscientific exit polls. All it would take would

be buses of christians picked up and dropped off at the front door of the voting station to mess with the exit pollster 100 feet down the street.

Studies have shown exit polls to be unscientific. Especially in all the State & Presidential elections Bush has run in.

[kster]

2. We already won the exit poll debate

because they won't release this,unless you have another explanation why they won't release it ?

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/123004B.shtml#1

[Febble]

8. See here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=393939&mesg_id=394356

[autorank]

5. Hi, Show us the studies! We're waiting. Elegant prose absent

evidence is, well, lacking.

I also appologize to you for using a provocative term on a response recently. "Dis..." Over the top.

[Old and In the Way]

6. Pretty funny observation.

"Studies have shown exit polls to be unscientific. Especially in all the State & Presidential elections Bush has run in."

Yes, we noticed that, especially, too. Sorry, AG, you'll never convince me that they didn't screw with the tabulators.

I wanna know what were all of those interconnected PC's doing in Rove's boiler room. Were they all watching CNN election results?

[applegrove]

7. So were the exit polls "exactly right" except in the areas they were

off & there was no diebold?

[Febble]

9. I have to say

although I agree with you that the exit polls are fallible, that what you are suggesting seems to me the opposite of what could have produced the exit poll results.

In order to produce a "red" shift in the polls, there needed to be more Kerry responders than Bush responders.

Are you saying that busloads of Bush voters were dropped off and asked to lie to the pollsters that they voted for Kerry?

If you want to posit that kind of conspiracy, it would make more sense to suggest that Bush supporters were warned not to talk to pollsters - after all they were emblazoned with logos representing the dastardly librul media.(See here under "UPDATE & CLARIFICATION (5/17) More about the 1997 study:")

But frankly, I think that is vanishingly unlikely that there was a deliberate plot to boycott the poll. I think it is more likely that there was some kind of selection bias in the poll, not unprecedented either in the US or the UK (or, it now seems, Germany) that resulted in greater particpation in the polls by Kerry voters than Bush voters.

Or, frankly, that there was fraud. But my money is most definitely on polling bias as the major factor in producing the red shift. For reasons I have given copiously elsewhere.

[applegrove]

10. If conservative christian voters were dropped on at the doors and

picked up at the doors - they walked nowhere near the 100 feet they would need to walk to get asked the exit poll questions.

I am not saying that is what happened - i am just saying that there are 101 ways for the exit polls to be dicked with - by luck or by plan - who knows - and nobody can say they were scientific. Because they are not.

So to use exit polls as the basis of diebold theory is faulty. We don't know why the polls were so off in districts where there were no diebold. We don't know why this follows Bush in State & Federal elections.

All we know for sure is that the exit polls were not scientific.

Could be:

1) over-enthused Democrats
2) shy conservatives
3) conservatives told not to answer polls
4) bused in repukes to the doors and picked up at doors after they vote
5)preferential parking near the polls (& better Repuke organization to get people to the polls by car) while liberals walked
5) phony answers to polls
6) phony voters answering polls
7) religious voters believing their vote against abortion was sacred
8) Liberal voters being more nice and civic minded vs. cons being taught to behave as narcissists
9)Right hatred of mainstream media & pollsters
10)Shorter line-ups at more republican ridings
11) all of the above

etc.

The sample is not random and not scientific. Therefore the "exit polls" cannot be the basis of diebold proof.

[bananas]

3. So that's where TruthIsAll went to!

[autorank]

4. Hey Look, "Scoop" picked it up from your media blasting!

To all of you here and lurking who sent this puppy out and continued the missionary work:

:yourock:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0509/S00342.htm

A Question Of Letitimacy: Who Really Won In 2004?

Tuesday, 20 September 2005, 1:59 pm
Press Release: Concerned Americans
September 19, 2005
For Immediate Release
From: Concerned Americans

IT'S NOW A QUESTION OF LEGITIMACY: WHO REALLY WON IN 2004?

************

In 2005 Federal government gives Louisiana $27 million for Help America Vote Act to purchase machines for the entire state.
http://170.94.58.9/data/agency_budgets/0063.htm

In 2004 the Bush administration cut Army Corps of Engineers budget for levee maintenance in the New Orleans area by $26 million dollars. http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1001051313

************

Why is the Bush administration so intent on spreading voting machines and software?

Could the reason be that Bush almost always does better in electronic voting precincts?
Could another reason be that almost all the electronic voting companies are owned by right wing Republicans?

1) In early 2004, the BBC reported on serious questions about American electronic voting. David Dill, a computer expert at Stanford, questioned the reliability of voting systems, owned and operated by private companies who keep all data and operations information private. BBC pointed out that in Brazil, a separate organization exists to look at electronic voting machines during and after an election in order to keep vendors honest. In America, Diebold, etc. will not allow anyone to examine their machines since the software is "proprietary." We are voting blind with no way to check the process or even do a recount....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3489877.stm

2) About 80% of the votes in this country are now tabulated & totalled by just three companies, two controlled by right wing Republicans and the third by a British company. These and other voting machine and system companies have a checkered record, some employing ex felons. This article by reporter LynnLandes details the sorry situation in detail with references.
http://www.ecotalk.org/VotingMachineCompanies.htm
Professor Avi Rubin of Johns Hopkins University did a study on one of the most popular voting machines, Diebold, in 2003 and found numerous security problems. This was not a partisan effort but a look by a computer security expert. The results are depressing.
http://avirubin.com/vote.pdf

[autorank]

11. Blue background-data blocking fixed on this. Do your own thing - it's all

here. Report back what you find.

The debate on the exit polls is over. The Clincher and Game threads more than amply demonstrated this.

There are people who see exit polls where they're not even mentioned, i.e., the Time for change thread.

Give it a rest. If you don't like them, fine. Don't waste YOUR time or others when you could be doing something.

Cheers