Breaking: Analysis of FL House Race-Official Diebold Report-Significant Misreport of Numbers

[kpete]

IMPORTANT BREAKING NEWS:
National Election Data Archive
January 2, 2007
by Kathy Dopp

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/FL/2006/Analysis-FL-CD24-ElectionResults-2006.pdf

Analysis of Curtis-Feeney race in Florida District 24 shows that:

The official Diebold reports of vote counts in the Curtis-Feeney U.S. Congressional District 24 2006 election significantly misreport the number of voters who voted and the number of under-votes. The pattern of votes counted in Florida's US Congressional District 24 is unusual and consistent with a pattern that would be caused by vote fraud or innocent miscount. Further investigation is warranted.

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/FL/2006/Analysis-FL-CD24-ElectionResults-2006.pdf

The National Election Data Archive is urging people to contact their U.S. House Representative and ask them to investigate Florida's U.S. Congressional Elections!

http://www.house.gov/

On Tuesday, January 3, the U.S. Senate and House will be swearing in new members. Several of the nation's foremost election integrity experts have spent the last several months grappling with some of these issues and have come up with 14 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FEDERAL LEGISLATION TO ENSURE THE INTEGRITY OF OUR DEMOCRACY.

In light of the continuing problem of questionable election outcomes in jurisdictions all over the country, where tens of thousands of votes appear not to have been recorded correctly, these recommendations are crucial to reestablishing trust in U.S. elections. Just five of these recommendations would prevent the wrong candidate being sworn into office as it appears may be happening in Florida's House District 13 election. Due to the untimely release of complete vote count data, investigators are just now turning up statistically improbable vote outcomes and election challenges are still underway. Those five recommendations, with just the briefest of definitions, are:

read the rest at:
http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_kathy_do_070101_breaking_3a_analysis_o.htm

[Peace Patriot]

1. Thanks for the update, Kpete--and for contact info! Florida is a Pandora's

Box! But opening it will not harm us. In fact, opening is essential to the survival of our democracy. Let the worms, and ghouls, and vampires, and gargoyles out into the clean light of day!

[Land Shark]

2. Thanks for posting this latest analysis, much appreciated : ) nt

[intheflow]

3. kpete, you give me hope for the future.

It's so good to know you've got my back covered so I can work on other fucked up issues in this country, like racism, classism, and sexism in Katrina recovery.

[lovuian]

4. Well finally the TRUTH is coming out

Thanks KPete
:woohoo:

[eomer]

5. Kathy Dopp has temporarily withdrawn the paper

with this statement:

NOTICE: NEDA may have made a “faux pas”. The previous analysis of Florida's
Curtis-Feeney U.S. Congressional District 24 race has been temporarily withdrawn to
allow the consistency of the data we were given to analyze to be verified (i.e. were
apples [polling + early votes] being compared to apples [polling + early voters] to
calculate number of under-votes?). Information will be released as soon as it
becomes available.

http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/FL/2006/Analysis-FL-CD24-ElectionResults-2006.pdf

[rumpel]

6. She calls out for legislation for reform.

We have learned that Florida's election data reporting practices make
it impossible to compare its voter history files directly with its
official precinct vote count reports because:

1. the two files aggregate different vote types (eg. one combines
early Optical Scan and DRE votes by precinct, the other file separates
early DRE votes by precinct and combines all early Optical Scan votes
in one number for the entire county), and

2. several types of votes are not broken out by precinct in
Florida's official precinct vote count reports, but they are broken
out by precinct in the voter history file!

Arduous examination of paper records must be performed to obtain basic
vote count comparisons!

There is an urgent need for election reform legislation requiring
counties to release detailed vote count data like that the experts in
its voter history and official vote count files.

What a mess....

are there other States with these problems?

[philb]

7. At least 2296 missing votes in 3 close Orange County Congressional races

Missing Votes
from Orange County Official Precinct final counts on their website

Precnct voters CD8 CD24 CD7

102 635 247
107 773 678
139 966 485
201 857 838
203 610 506
204 448 0 0 0 (all precincts vote in some Cong. Race)
206 762 604
213 804 155
214 819 0 0 0
215 745 0 0 0 (all precincts vote in some Cong. Race)
216 898 0 0 0 (") which Cong. Race??
220 815 425
225 586 259
226 543 0 0 0
229 991 836
231 1126 597
232 1056 0 0 0
234 966 0 0 0
320 737 115
326 676 216
435 786 773
501 697 696
508 1035 850
515 1201
601 581 0 0 0
602 713
603 609 0 0 0
604 636 0 0 0
605 626 0 0 0
606 336 0 0 0
607 630 0 0 0
608 609 0 0 0
609 404 58
610 576 8
611 714 0 0 0
612 831 0 0 0
613 731 0 0 0
614 732 0 0 0
615 678 0 0 0
616 728 0 0 0
617 664 0 0 0
618 707 0 0 0
619 680 0 0 0
620 782 0 0 0
621 734 0 0 0
622 330 0 0 0
623 630 0 0 0
624 396 0 0 0
625 656 0 0 0
627 449 0 0 0
628 770 122
629 838 0 0 0
630 448 164

37750 4732 3900 0

missing 29,118 4,157 1,697
+ ? + ? + ?
It appears that most of these missing votes were in CD3, which did not have an announced apponent, only writeins
but at least 2296 of the missing votes were not in CD3- most were in Clint Curtis CD24 race
I'm not sure why Orange County did not show votes or voters on their website for CD3

[OnTheOtherHand]

9. I don't think FL puts uncontested House races on the ballot

not even for write-ins.

So, a possible explanation of some of the eye-popping discrepancies is that portions of those precincts are in CD 3, so the voters had no House race to vote in. I can't immediately tell whether Orange County precincts can be divided across CDs or not.

[OnTheOtherHand]

10. yes, they can be divided

There appear to be 4 precincts divided between CD 8 and 24: 320, 326, 435 (barely), and 515. There are something like 19 precincts where the reported totals from districts 7, 8, and 24 -- including reported undervotes -- are much less than the reported total ballots cast. Actually only 4 of those appear in CD 24 (203, 206, 229, 508). The rest appear in CD 8. So, are all those precincts divided between the listed precinct and CD 3? I don't know, although it's the simplest explanation of the discrepancies.

[philb]

8. At least 1698 "Phantom votes" in Brevard County in Florida CD24

based on comparison of official voter file to official votes by precinct

[philb]

11. They all have evidence of irregularities and manipulation- but

I think all but Jennings will have a hard time making enough case to get the elections overturned
since they aren't getting cooperation from the authorities or manufacturers they are blaming for the irregularities,
and the authorities control the information they need to make their case. There is a huge amount of stalling,
failure to provide information making the results transparent and assessable, etc. Provision of information in form incompatible with other information, etc.

There are definately very strange patterns in DRE results and absentees vs opti-scan results, and a lot of other highly unlikely results given the Demographics. It seems that Dems vote for Dems when they vote on opti-scan in some of these counties, but lots of Dems and most Independents vote Republican when DREs are used. Contrary to the polls.

It will be interesting to see how the voter affidavits are treated, and how unreasonably high undervotes are dealt with in
the Jennings race and others. Some races with much irregularities and even higher undervotes than the Jennings race aren't being contested- in Florida and elsewhere.
Some machines in some races had 50% undervotes.

[philb]

12. CD5 race had 5 times higher undervotes in touch screen county than opti-scan

and 5 times higher undervotes in Congressional race than Governor's race
which wasn't true in the opti-scan county

Pasco(TS) vs Hernando(OS)