Assuming that Obama will win 60% of the undecided vote, then based on the latest state polls, the Election Model projects that he will win
54.8% of the two-party vote with
420 electoral votes — if the election is fraud-free and held today. With 55% of the undecided voters, he will have 54.0% with 393 electoral votes. Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials, his electoral vote win probability is 100%.
Based on the latest 5 national polls average projection (including just-released NYT/CBS and ABC polls), he would win
53.92% of the popular vote.
One might ask “What are you smoking? Nothing is 100%”. Well, based on the results of 5000 Monte Carlo simulation trials, the win probability is 100%.
There is no way that a popular vote winning margin greater than 4% can result in an electoral vote loss. That has never happened and it never will. Monte Carlo proves it. Therefore, any analysis which is based on the latest polls and gives McCain more than a 2% chance of winning the election (assuming it is held today) is mathematically suspect. By inflating McCain’s win probability, they unintentionally provide potential cover for another stolen election.Of course, the probabilities will change daily as the state polls change.
This is the relationship between the aggregate state 2-party vote share and the Monte Carlo EV win probability:
Aggregate share
50.2
50.9
51.7
52.5
53.2
Win Probability
69.2
93.1
99.1
99.9
100.0
The bottom line is this:
Fifty state polls (
zogby.com and
electoral-vote.com) and 5 national polls (
realclearpolitics.com) confirm that Obama is leading by 54–46% with an increasing trend over the past six weeks. The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is in effect. The more polls, the more samples, the greater the confidence that the sample mean is close to the True Mean. So if we accept what the LLN is telling us: with 54% of the two-party vote, Obama is an absolute 100% lock to win the Electoral Vote.
How is the “win probability” calculated? Is it based on the electoral vote or the popular vote? The Election Model calculates it both ways. And the probabilities match — an outcome which not only confirms both methods but is also intuitively satisfying. The calculations are based on a Monte Carlo simulation (for the electoral vote) and normal distribution (for the popular vote).
State Model Win ProbabilitiesWhy is the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method used to calculate the expected (mean) EV and the electoral vote win probability? For several reasons:
- Unlike academic election models which attempt to forecast the popular vote based on a regression analysis using economic and political time-series months in advance of the election, MC determines the probability of winning the electoral vote based on the latest polls right up to the election,
- MC uses individual state win probabilities, as opposed to the simple win-no win scenarios in media-created election models,
- MC is a powerful tool for analyzing complicated systems when analytical solutions are impractical or impossible.
Obama and McCain can both either win OR lose a competitive state. In each MC election trial, the winner is determined by a random process based on state win probabilities which are in turn determined by the latest poll. For example, assume that Obama is projected to win Florida’s 27 EV with 51% of the popular vote (based on the latest polls). Many electoral vote calculators would simply add the 27 EV to the Obama column to determine his projected electoral vote total. But this is an over-simplification; McCain has a 31% probability of winning Florida based on his 49% vote share; Obama has 69%.
In each of 5000 election trials, Obama’s 69% probability is compared to a random number (RND) between zero and one. If the RND is less or equal to 0.69, Obama wins Florida’s 27 EV; otherwise McCain wins. The comparison test is applied in all the states. The winner of the election trial is the candidate who has at least 270 EV. The electoral vote win probability is simply the number of winning election trials divided by 5000. Since Obama won all 5000 election trials, his win probability is 100%.
The
Popular Vote win probability (for any given state as well as the national aggregate) is calculated by the Excel normal distribution function. We will show that Obama’s popular vote win probability closely matches his Monte Carlo EV win probability. Obama’s projected two-party vote share and the polling standard deviation (MoE/1.96) are the only required inputs.
- Obama’s projected base case (60% UVA) vote share is V=54.79%.
Assuming a 2.0% polling MoE, his popular vote win probability is 100%.
The Excel function is: = NORMDIST (54.79%, 50%, 2.0%/1.96, true)
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 99.9%
- For the 50% UVA projection scenario, V=53.25%; the win probability is 99.9% (2.0% MoE).
Assuming a 3.0% MoE, the probability is 98.3%
National Model Win ProbabilitiesThe National Model calculates the moving average projection based on 5 national polls. The base case 60% UVA scenario is assumed. The model provides a further confirmation of the State Model probabilities. The normal distribution function calculates win probabilities for all the moving averages using the MoE of the latest poll.
For example, the latest Gallup poll (2637 sample) has a 1.91% MoE. Based on the 53.92% moving average projection, there is a 99.997% probability that Obama will win the popular vote: 99.997% = NORMDIST (53.92%, 50%, 1.91%/1.96, true)
Election FraudIn a true democracy, this would be a slam dunk for Obama:McCain supports the most unpopular president in history with 25% approval.But there’s a catch: It’s called
Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.- Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.
Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically
impossible Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
That’s why the Election Model now includes a fraud scenario analysis. Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.
Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately, Bush won a rigged
Recorded vote. Kerry won the
True vote, but like Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get. Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.
These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral voteThe Election Model has been updated to include two key fraud variable factors:
uncounted votes (net of votes padded) and
switched votes. Historical evidence shows that over 75% of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts.
These critical factors are never included in election forecasting models which permeate the media and the internet. In fact, there is no mention of fraud from professional pollsters, political forecasters in academia, media pundits or liberal bloggers on their web sites. But it’s understandable. No one wants to bite the hand that feeds them. Why should any of these interested parties discuss fraud when Democratic politicians won’t? Unlike impeachment, the dirty little secret of election fraud has always been off the table in Congress.
The base case projection assumes zero fraud. But if 4% of total votes cast are uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column in order to win. This could be done by rigging strategically selected touch screens, optical scanners, punched cards and central tabulators. Is it just a coincidence that Karl Rove is advising McCain?
The Election Model calculates projected vote shares and the electoral vote over a range of 36 uncounted and switched vote scenarios. The scenarios range from the True Vote (zero votes uncounted, zero switched) to Massive Fraud (5%, 10%). For simplicity, the model assumes that the scenarios apply equally in each state- an admittedly an unrealistic assumption. But it provides a good approximation to the resulting EV and popular vote.
In 2004, Bush won by an official 3.0m vote margin (
62 – 59m). The official recorded vote was 122.3m. According to the 2004 Census,
125.7m votes were cast. Therefore, approximately 3.4m votes (2.74%) were uncounted. Historical evidence shows that the vast majority (75%) of uncounted ballots are found in heavily Democratic minority precincts. After the uncounted ballots are added to the official vote, the margin is reduced to 1.4m (62.9-61.5m). The
2004 Election Calculator Model (see below) determined that Kerry won by 66.9 – 57.1m. Therefore, simple arithmetic shows that approximately 5.4m (8.0%) votes must have been switched from Kerry to Bush. Note that in Florida, Ohio and several other states, total votes recorded exceeded votes cast (vote padding exceeded vote suppression). Most states had more vote suppression than vote padding; the net difference was the number of uncounted votes.
2008 Election CalculatorThis model projects that
Obama will win the True Vote by 71 – 59m (54 - 45%).
Basic input consists of the 2004 recorded vote, mortality, uncounted votes and 2004 voter turnout in 2008.
The
True Vote is calculated using slightly modified
2004 NEP vote shares.
Voted Est 2008 Calculated True Vote
in 2004 Turnout Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV - 17.2 13.1% 59% 40% 1%
Kerry 95% 60.5 46.2% 89% 10% 1%
Bush 95% 51.6 39.4% 11% 88% 1%
Other 95% 1.6 1.2% 70% 11% 19%
Total 113.7 130.9 100% 54.1% 44.7% 1.2%
130.9 70.8 58.5 1.6
The
model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.
- In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
- The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
- Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.
- Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
- The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters
Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
- E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
- Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll margin and recorded vote count margin.
It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures). Unadjusted Exit Poll Recorded Vote Count
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin KEV WPE/WPD
WtdAv TOTAL 51.95 47.05 4.91 337 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 7.37 %
The state exit poll WPD:
- exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush and none for Kerry (equivalent to exceeding a 3% MoE)
- exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
- was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
- was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.
The
1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by
48 –
51%.- The national pre-election RV polls were closer to the True Vote than likely voter LV polls.
- The LV polls, after adjustments, matched the RVs — and the unadjusted exit polls.
2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONSNational Model — see atopState Model
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
EV:
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
Total
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
538
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Obama
45.5 %
36
41
42
41
52
40
48
90
50
39
38
61
39
50
39
51
37
39
37
46
54
54
50
54
44
48
48
36
38
40
47
49
50
47
43
43
37
49
46
55
42
43
36
39
31
63
44
51
37
50
40
McCain
39 %
50
45
39
39
32
38
32
9
41
43
44
31
52
37
40
41
47
44
56
30
30
29
42
37
50
45
43
52
38
37
36
33
37
38
43
38
42
33
36
31
41
47
41
42
55
29
39
43
45
39
53
Diff
6.5 %
-14)
(4)
3
2
20
2
16
81
9
(4)
(6)
30
(13)
13
(1)
10
(10)
(5)
(19)
16
24
25
8
17
(6)
3
5
(16)
0
3
11
16
13
9
0
5
(5)
16
10
24
1
(4)
(5)
(3)
(24)
34
5
8
(8)
11
(13)
BO EV
359
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
7
4
10
12
17
10
11
3
4
15
5
31
15
20
7
21
4
8
3
13
11
10
Diff < 8%
250
3
10
6
9
27
15
11
8
17
6
11
3
5
4
3
20
7
8
3
11
34
13
11
5
Obama
54.8 %
44.4
49.4
53.4
53.0
61.6
53.2
60.0
55.4
90.6
49.8
48.8
65.8
44.4
57.8
51.6
55.8
46.6
49.2
41.2
60.4
63.6
64.2
54.8
59.4
47.6
52.2
53.4
43.2
52.4
53.8
57.2
59.8
57.8
56.0
51.4
54.4
49.6
59.8
56.8
63.4
52.2
49.0
49.8
50.4
39.4
67.8
54.2
54.6
47.8
56.6
44.2
Probability
100.0 %
0.3
38.2
95.5
93.3
100.0
94.5
100.0
99.7
100.0
46.0
27.4
100.0
0.3
100.0
78.8
99.8
4.5
34.5
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.2
100.0
11.5
86.4
95.5
0.0
88.5
97.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.9
75.8
98.6
42.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
86.4
30.9
46.0
57.9
0.0
100.0
98.2
98.9
13.6
100.0
0.2
EV
420
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
4
21
11
7
4
10
12
17
10
11
3
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
21
4
8
34
3
13
11
10
Obama
15
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
Obama
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