10/7 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA POLLING 364 EV (356 EXPECTED)- MAX PLAUSIBLE 375 EV w INDIANA? (x)

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: October 7

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

10/07/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote

Obama
McCain
 49.48 (52.42) 
 44.92 (47.58) 
 49.80 (53.55) 
 43.20 (46.45) 
52.84
47.16
54.00
46.00
 356 
 182 

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Research2k
Gallup
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen
Zogby

Battleground
NBC/WSJ
CBS/NYT
CNN
Marist

AP/GfK
CBS/NYT
Ipsos
Time
Pew Research

Registered V
vs     Likely V
Poll Averages

Date
            
10/06
10/06
10/06
10/06
10/06

10/05
10/05
10/05
10/05
09/30

09/30
09/30
09/30
09/29
09/29

Size   
              
1100 LV
2744 RV
908 LV
3000 LV
1237 LV

800 LV
658 RV
616 LV
694 LV
943 LV

808 LV
769 LV
1007 RV
1133 LV
1181 LV

RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party

MoE
         
2.95%
1.87%
3.25%
1.79%
2.79%

3.46%
3.82%
3.95%
3.72%
3.19%

3.45%
3.53%
3.09%
2.91%
2.85%

Obama
            
52
51
46
52
48

50
49
48
53
49

48
50
48
50
49

49.3
49.6
49.5
53.4

McCain
            
41
42
44
44
45

43
43
45
45
44

41
41
45
43
43

43.3
43.3
43.3
46.6

Other
            
7
7
10
4
7

7
8
7
2
7

11
9
7
7
8

7.3
7.2
7.2
0.0

Spread
            
11
9
2
8
3

7
6
3
8
5

7
9
3
7
6

6.0
6.3
6.3
6.8

 

Obama
            
49.8
49.4
49.0
49.4
49.6

49.8
49.4
49.6
49.6
49.0

49.0
49.4
48.8
49.6
49.2

McCain
            
43.2
43.6
43.8
44.0
44.2

44.0
43.6
43.2
43.2
42.8

42.6
43.6
43.8
43.4
44.0

Spread
            
6.6
5.8
5.2
5.4
5.4

5.8
5.8
6.4
6.4
6.2

6.4
5.8
5.0
6.2
5.2

Win Prob
               
99.9
99.7
99.4
99.9
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.7

99.4
97.8
91.5
88.1
90.0

 

Obama
            
54.0
53.6
53.3
53.4
53.3

53.5
53.6
53.9
53.9
53.9

54.0
53.6
53.2
53.8
53.3

McCain
            
46.0
46.4
46.7
46.6
46.7

46.5
46.4
46.1
46.1
46.1

46.0
46.4
46.8
46.2
46.7

Spread
            
8.0
7.2
6.6
6.7
6.6

7.0
7.2
7.8
7.8
7.8

8.1
7.2
6.5
7.6
6.6

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
99.9
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

99.9
99.6
97.4
96.2
96.9

 

 

The 2008 Election Model assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. Obama has a solid margin in virtually all the battleground states except Indiana. The Election Model’s undecided voter allocation solidifies his projected margin and win probability but does not increase his EV. Note that the theoretical expected EV is lower than the projected EV. In fact, there appears to be a 375 maximum on Obama’s total projected EV, assuming that he wins Indiana but no other red states in which he is trailing by large margins.

State Model
Aggregate Average
Projection (2-party)
Theoretical EV
Expected (mean) EV
Median EV
Polling EV
Projected EV
Election Trial Wins

National Model
Tracking Poll Average
Projection (2-party)

 

Obama
49.48
52.84
356.3
356.3
359.0
364.0
364.0
5000


49.80
54.00

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

McCain
44.92
47.16
181.7
181.7
179.0
174.0
174.0
0


43.20
46.00

 

weighted average based on 2004 recorded vote
Base case scenario: 60% Undecided (UVA) to Obama
EV = ∑ ( state win probability (i) *EV(i) ) i=1,51 states
Monte Carlo simulation (60% UVA, 5000 election trials)
Monte Carlo simulation
Latest State Polling split (unadjusted)
Latest State Poll + 60% Undecided (UVA) to Obama
Monte Carlo (random number vs. state win probability)

Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Zogby
60% UVA to Obama

View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

Optimal Obama Resource Allocation to Key States

A new feature of the model is a ranking measure of optimal allocation of resources for key states. The rankings are a function of the electoral vote and the polling spread. A state with a high electoral vote and low polling spread will result in a high ranking based on the percentage of resources to be allocated. As of today, the five most important (highest ranked) states and corresponding allocation percentages are:

1- OH (20.0), 2- FL (19.3), 3,4 (tie)- IN (11.0), - MO (11.0), 5- NC (10.7).

In other words, Obama should allocate approximately 72% of available funds to these states. See the detailed state polling analysis below.

Projected Vote Shares, Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

Electoral-vote.com (349–174–15) and RealClearPolitics (364–174) now closely match the Election Model. As indicated in a prior update, it is mathematically incorrect to just assign the state electoral vote to the poll leader (regardless of the spread) and to disregard state win probabilities which are based on the poll split; the two sites do not use probabilities in calculating the EV. Prior to last week, their EV estimates for Obama were low compared to the Election Model since a) the state polls were close and b) they do not allocate undecided voters.
•••

Election Model Calculations

The projected vote share is equal to the latest poll plus the undecided voter allocation.

V(i)  =  Poll(i) + UVA(i)

•••

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

Last
S T A T E   M O D E L
 
N A T I O N A L   M O D E L
 
MONTE CARLO
SIMULATION

Update
L A T E S T  S T A T E–P O L L  A V E R A G E
 
L A T E S T   P O L L S   M O V–A V E R A G E
 
EXPECTED

10/07/2008
Aggregate
2-party
Projection
 
5-Poll
5-Poll 2-party
Projection
 
ELECTORAL VOTE

 
 
 
60% UVA
 
 
 
60% UVA

Current   EV
Obama
McCain
 
Map
49.48
44.92
 

52.42
47.58
 

52.84
47.16
 

  
 
 

49.80
43.20
 

53.55
46.45
 

54.00
46.00
 

  
 
 

356
182
 

 

 
75% UVA
 
 
 
75% UVA

11/01/04  EV
Kerry
Bush
 
Map
47.88
46.89
 

50.52
49.48
 

51.80
48.20
 

  
 
 

47.80
46.60
 

50.64
49.36
 

51.77
48.23
 

  
 
 

 337 
 201 
 

•••

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

State Model
(2-party vote shares)

 
 
L A T E S T   S T A T E   P O L L 
 
KEY STATES
(within MoE)
 
2004 EM  KERRY  VOTE–PROJECTION  vs
EXIT POLL  &  RECORDED VOTE–COUNT
 
2008  vs  2004
PROJECTED  VOTE

 

 
 
Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
60% UVA
Projection
 
MC Exp EV
Win Prob
 

Resource  Allocation
 
Vote
Projected
WPE (IM)
 Exit Poll 
Vote
Counted
 
Kerry Projection
deviation
 
 
2008 Obama
diff
 
StatesEV
Flip To(*)
 

     

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
•
•
•
Last
Poll
 Date 
       
9/23
9/21
9/30
9/22
10/5

10/5
       
 
VoteShare
 Popular 
 Electoral 

9
3
10
6
55

9
       
Obama
 49.48 %
 364 
       
37
38
38
37
55

48
  
McCain
 44.92 %
  174  
       
62
55
52
47
39

44
      
 
Spread
4.56 %
 190  
     
(25)
(17)
(14)
(10)
16

4
  
 
Obama
52.84 %
 364 
       
37.6
42.2
44.0
46.6
58.6

52.8
  
 
Obama
100.0 %
 356.3 
       
0.0
0.0
0.2
4.8
100.0

91.5
  
 
Percent
 100 
          
       






6.4
    
 
Rank
 
          
       






6
   
 
Final  Kerry
51.75 %
 337 
       
42.0
39.8
48.8
50.5
55.8

50.8
       
JK Unadj
52.51 %
 337 

42.1
41.6
44.9
45.7
60.9

50.7
Kerry
48.76 %
 252 

37.2
35.9
44.8
45.0
54.9

47.5
    
 
Exit Poll
0.75 %
   0   

0.1
1.8
(3.9)
(4.8)
5.2

(0.0)

    
 
Vote Cnt
( 3.0 ) %
 (85) 
 
(4.8)
(3.9)
(3.9)
(5.5)
(0.9)

(3.3)
 
   Final  Kerry  
1.09 %
   19.3   

(4.4)
2.5
(4.8)
(3.9)
2.9

2.1
    
 
Obama
9
 112 

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO*

    

[BeFree]

1. TIA !!

I can dig it, man. Great news! Good to see you haven't given up on us.

Obama will win an honest election and I think he will win by such a great margin that it will make bushco decide they can't steal the presidency this time.

However, what we need to be aware of is that a theft of congress is their plan B.

Can you help us there?

[tiptoe]

2. Latest Update has WV at 46 -46 (4:03 pm EST)

page 4, http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel1009.pdf

[tiptoe]

3. UPDATED ELECTION MODEL (PDF) 10/10 @ 330PM: Obama 364EV; 53.1% state; 54.5% National

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.pdf