The 2008 Election Model assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. Obama has a solid margin in virtually all of the battleground states. Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials with an expected (average)
367–
171 electoral vote margin. His median EV was 371; the mode (most frequent trial result) was 372. He has a
99% probability of winning at least
330 electoral votes.
View the
State vs. National vote share projection Trend.
National polls are current; state poll lag by a week or more. Obama’s projected aggregate state 2-party vote (
53.64%) is approaching the national average (
54.56%) as the time lag between the polls decreases.
The three most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread are
OH (20.9),
NC (20.90) and
FL (14.3). The values represent the optimal percentage of campaign resources to be allocated to these states. The percentages change when the polls are updated.
For McCain to win, he needs to switch at least
8% (1 in 12) of Obama’s votes to his column.
National Model
Tracking Poll Average
Projected Vote (2-party)
Actual Projected
State Model
Aggregate Poll Share
Projected Vote (2-party)
Actual Projected
Electoral Vote
Poll
Projected
Expected value
Obama
50.00
54.56
52.16
50.09
53.64
51.24
372
372
367.12
McCain
42.40
45.44
43.84
43.99
46.36
44.76
166
166
170.88
Calculation method (base case)
Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, Hotline, Zogby
Poll average+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
4% to third parties
Weighted average of state polls (2004 recorded vote)
Poll aggregate+ 60% of undecided (UVA) to Obama
4% to third parties
Unadjusted Poll Leader
Poll + 60% undecided (UVA) to Obama
EV = ∑ (Projection win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states
Monte Carlo Simulation (60% UVA to Obama, 5000 election trials)Mean
Median
Mode
Maximum
Minimum
367.20
371
372
417
299
170.80
167
166
121
239
Average Expected EV
Middle value
Most frequent EV
Obama Electoral Vote Win ProbabilitiesMinimum Electoral Vote
Winning Trials >Min EV
Probability (EV > Min)
270
5000
100.0%
310
4996
99.92%
330
4953
99.1%
350
4475
89.5%
370
2546
50.9%
390
179
3.6%
410
5
0.10%
Projected Vote Shares, Electoral Votes and Win ProbabilitiesElectoral-vote.com and
RealClearPolitics now closely match the Election Model. As indicated in a prior update, these sites assign the full electoral vote to the state poll leader (regardless of the spread); they avoid using
state win probabilities in calculating the EV. In the past, their EV totals were low and volatile compared to the Election Model; the polls were close and
they did not allocate undecided voters. Now that Obama has pulled ahead in every battleground state, the Election Model undecided voter “kick” has virtually no impact on his expected EV; he is already projected to win.
The discrepancy in win probabilities between the Election Model (100%) and
FiveThirtyEight (90%) is due to fundamental differences in methodology. The 538 model adjusts state poll projections based on pollster rating weights as well as other factors. They forecast Election Day result. The Election Model assumes the election is held today and is fraud-free. The Election Model does not rank pollsters, but it does adjust the latest state poll average for a range of
undecided voter allocations (40–80%) — a sensitivity “what-if” analysis.
Ranking pollsters based on prior election results is a two-edged sword. If a pollster (Rasmussen) comes close to the recorded vote in a rigged election, does that mean he was more accurate than one who correctly projected the
True Vote (Zogby)? Compare their performance in the 2000 election (Zogby was correct, Rasmussen was way off) to the totally corrupt 2004 election (Rasmussen was “correct” and Zogby was off). This was the
electoral-vote.com EV map on Nov 1, 2004.
Compare the FiveThirtyEight
Electoral Vote Distribution chart to the Election Model
Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart.
The Election Calculator Model
In May, the
2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by
71–59m.
May 2008
Estimated vote share
2004
DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other
Total
Turnout
—
95%
95%
95%
113.7
Voted
17.2
60.5
51.6
1.6
130.9
Mix
13.1%
46.2%
39.4%
1.2%
100.0%
130.9m
Obama
59%
89%
11%
70%
54.1%
70.8m
McCain
40%
10%
88%
11%
44.7%
58.5m
Other
1%
1%
1%
19%
1.2%
1.6m
On October 14, the Calculator was updated to include new information:
1) An increase of over 20% in new registered voters, the great majority of whom are Democratic.
2) A slight increase in the estimated Obama share of returning Kerry and Bush voters.
3) An increase in third party vote share.
Obama is now projected to win by
80–
58 million votes in a fraud-free landslide.
2004
DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other
Total
Turnout
—
95%
95%
95%
113.7
Votes
29.9
60.6
51.6
1.6
143.7
Mix
20.8%
42.2%
35.9%
1.1%
100.0%
143.7m
Obama
59%
92%
11%
64%
55.7%
80.1m
McCain
35%
5%
86%
11%
40.4%
58.1m
Other
6%
3%
3%
25%
3.9%
5.6m
The model sensitivity analysis indicates the following, assuming other vote shares are held constant:
If Obama wins just
9% of returning Bush voters and
90% of Kerry voters, he would win by
17.5m votes (
54.2–
41.6%).
If he wins just
55% of new voters and
90% of Kerry voters, he would win by
17.2m votes (
54–
42%).
If he wins by
52–
44%, he would win by
74.7–63.4m.
If he wins by
50–
46%, he would win by
71.8–66.2m.
The
1988-2004 Election Calculator was developed as a response to the
Final 2004 National Exit Poll.
The
Final NEP was
'forced' to match the
recorded vote using
impossible weightings.
In the
Final NEP (see '13660'), 43% of 2004 voters --
52.6m -- were former
Bush 2000 voters; 37% were Gore voters.
But Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000.Approximately 2.5m died by 2004, and another 2.5m did not return to vote in 2004.
Therefore,
only 45.5m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.
The Final NEP overstated the Bush vote by 7 million in order to match a corrupt, miscounted vote.The 2004
True Vote calculation was based on an estimated 100.1m returning 2000 voters, calculated as:
Total votes cast in 2000 (110.8m)...less voter mortality (5.4m)...times 95% turnout (100.1m).
Vote shares were based on the
12:22am National Exit Poll (
13047 randomly selected, 1% MoE ).
The model determined that Kerry won by
66.9–
57.1 million.
Kerry did slightly better (53.2%) than the unadjusted state exit poll (52.0%) aggregate.
The results indicate that
5.4m votes (
8.0% of Kerry’s total) were
switched from Kerry to Bush.
2004
DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other
Total
Cast
Turnout
—
95%
95%
95%
100.1
Votes
25.6
49.7
46.6
3.8
125.7
Mix
20.4%
39.5%
37.1%
3.0%
100.0%
125.7m
Kerry
57%
91%
10%
64%
53.2%
66.9m
Bush
41%
8%
90%
17%
45.4%
57.1
Other
2%
1%
0%
19%
1.4%
1.7m
Recorded Vote share
Recorded Vote
Unadjusted Exit Poll
Deviation from True Vote
122.3
48.3%
59.0
52.0%
1.2%
50.7%
62.0
47.0%
+1.6%
1.0%
1.2
1.0%
-0.4%
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