10/23 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 378EV (=MEDIAN 5K MONTE CARLO TRIALS); 98% PROB EV >350; 80% >370!

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2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: October 23

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

10/23/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote

Obama
McCain
 50.93 (54.05) 
 43.30 (45.95) 
 51.00 (54.26) 
 43.00 (45.74) 
54.39
45.61
54.60
45.40
 374.5 
 163.5 

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Research2k
Gallup
ABC/WP
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen

Zogby
Battleground
FOX News
Pew Resrch
Ipsos

NBC/WSJ
CNN
Pew Resrch
Ipsos
CBS/NYT

Registered V
vs     Likely V
Poll Averages

Date
            
10/22
10/22
10/21
10/22
10/22

10/22
10/22
10/21
10/19
10/20

10/20
10/19
10/14
10/13
10/13

Size   
              
1100 LV
2788 RV
1330 LV
769 LV
3000 LV

1211 LV
1000 LV
936 LV
2382 LV
773 LV

1159 RV
764 LV
1191 LV
1036 RV
699 LV

RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party

MoE
         
2.95%
1.86%
2.69%
3.53%
1.79%

2.82%
3.10%
3.52%
2.88%
3.55%

2.84%
3.04%
3.71%
3.05%
3.54%

Obama
            
51
50
54
48
52

52
49
49
53
50

52
51
50
48
53

50.00
51.00
50.80
54.86

McCain
            
41
43
43
43
45

40
45
40
39
42

42
46
40
39
39

41.33
41.92
41.80
45.14

Other
            
8
7
3
9
3

8
6
11
8
8

6
3
10
13
8

8.67
7.08
7.40
0.00

Spread
            
10
7
11
5
7

12
4
9
14
8

10
5
10
9
14

8.67
9.08
9.00
9.72

 

Obama
            
51.0
51.2
51.0
50.0
51.0

50.6
50.6
51.0
51.2
50.2

50.8
50.4
50.8
51.2
50.8

McCain
            
43.0
42.8
43.2
42.6
41.8

41.2
41.6
41.8
41.8
41.8

41.2
41.0
40.4
40.6
40.6

Spread
            
8.0
8.4
7.8
7.4
9.2

9.4
9.0
9.2
9.4
8.4

9.6
9.4
10.4
10.6
10.2

Win Prob
               
99.5
99.5
99.6
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
99.5
100.0
99.2

98.7
96.1
92.5
86.8
95.1

 

Obama
            
54.6
54.8
54.5
54.4
55.3

55.5
55.3
55.3
55.4
55.0

55.6
55.6
56.1
56.1
56.0

McCain
            
45.4
45.2
45.5
45.6
44.7

44.5
44.7
44.7
44.6
45.0

44.4
44.4
43.9
43.9
44.0

Spread
            
9.2
9.6
9.0
8.9
10.6

11.0
10.6
10.6
10.8
10.0

11.2
11.1
12.2
12.2
11.9

Win Prob
               
99.9
99.9
99.9
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.9

99.7
99.1
98.0
95.3
99.2

 

 

Over the past few days, there has been a sharp rise in Obama’s state and national poll averages. Is it due to Powell’s endorsement? Palin’s 175k wardrobe? The economy? The stock market? Calling Obama a “socialist palling around with terrorists”? Exposing Joe the unlicensed plumber? Job layoffs? Is it the heavy Democratic new voter registration and powerful Obama GOTV campaign? Is it the rampant GOP voter purge and registration fraud? What about returning Gore and Kerry voters royally pissed about the stolen elections? Is it a rebellion against the complicit media and politicians who have avoided discussing election fraud since the SCOTUS 2000 coup? Or is it a combination of all the above?

The Election Model (EM) calculates an average of the two or three most recent state polls and projects five vote share scenarios (5000 trials each) over a range of undecided voter allocations from 40–90%. Even in the worst-case scenario in which Obama captures just 40% of the undecided vote, he won all 5000 election trials with an expected (average) 359.3 electoral votes. He won the base case (60% UVA) scenario with an average 374.7 EV. The median EV was 378.

Obama exceeded 350 EV in 4908 election trials, so there is a 98.2% probability that he will win at least 350 EV. He exceeded 370 EV in 4007 trials (80.1%).

Note how the Monte Carlo mean EV (374.51) matches the theoretical summation formula EV (374.67), based on state win probabilities. This illustrates The Law of Large Numbers (LLN): It took 5000 simulated election trials for the MEAN EV of 5000 to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV. In other words, 5000 trials are more than sufficient; we are in the “long run”. A meta-analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combinations is overkill, Princeton!

The EM assumes that current polls reflect the will of the electorate and that a fraud-free election is held today.

National polls reflect current vote preferences; state polls lag the nationals by a week on average. Obama’s projected aggregate 2-party vote (54.39%) is approaching the national average (54.60%). View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

The five most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread are FL (32.0), CO (7.1), IN (11.1), NC (14.8) and MO (13.0). The values represent the optimal percentage of campaign resources to be allocated to these states as of today (approximately 76% of available funds).

For McCain to win, based on current projections, he needs a minimum of 8.3% (1 in 12) of Obama’s votes switched to his column.

•••

Full post w State Model and more: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7580415&mesg_id=7580415