10/28 ELECTION MODEL (TIA):...OBAMA 381 EV!...76-62m!...Pew RV 52-36!...AZ, MT, GA, ND...in play! -x

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: October 28

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

10/28/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote

Obama
McCain
 51.60 (54.84) 
 42.50 (45.16) 
 50.20 (53.18) 
 44.20 (46.82) 
55.2
44.8
53.5
46.5
 379.5 
 158.5 

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Research2k
Gallup
Zogby
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen

ABC/WP
Battleground
Pew Research
Newsweek
CBS/NYT

FOX News
Pew Resrch
Ipsos
NBC/WSJ
CNN

Registered V
vs     Likely V
Poll Averages

Date
            
10/27
10/27
10/27
10/27
10/27

10/26
10/27
10/26
10/23
10/22

10/21
10/19
10/20
10/20
10/19

Size   
              
1100 LV
2794 RV
1202 LV
878 LV
3000 LV

1321 LV
1000 LV
1325 RV
882 LV
771 LV

936 LV
2382 LV
773 LV
1159 RV
764 LV

RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party

MoE
         
2.95%
1.85%
2.83%
3.31%
1.79%

2.70%
3.10%
2.69%
3.30%
3.53%

3.20%
2.01%
3.52%
2.88%
3.55%

Obama
            
50.4
50
49
50
51

52
49
52
53
52

49
53
50
52
51

51.33
50.78
50.89
54.60

McCain
            
42.7
43
45
42
46

45
46
36
41
39

40
39
42
42
46

40.33
42.81
42.31
45.40

Other
            
6.9
7
6
8
3

3
5
12
6
9

11
8
8
6
3

8.33
6.41
6.79
0.00

Spread
            
7.7
7
4
8
5

7
3
16
12
13

9
14
8
10
5

11.00
7.97
8.58
9.21

 

Obama
            
50.2
50.4
50.9
51.3
51.1

51.4
51.1
51.6
51.4
51.0

50.4
51.0
50.6
51.0
51.0

McCain
            
44.2
43.3
43.0
42.1
41.9

40.9
40.4
39.9
41.3
41.1

41.1
41.0
41.3
41.4
41.3

Spread
            
6.0
7.1
7.9
9.1
9.3

10.6
10.7
11.7
10.1
9.9

9.3
10.0
9.3
9.6
9.7

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
99.8
99.9
99.9

100.0
99.9
98.7
98.0
95.7

 

Obama
            
53.5
54.2
54.5
55.2
55.3

56.1
56.2
56.7
55.8
55.7

55.5
55.8
55.5
55.5
55.6

McCain
            
46.5
45.8
45.5
44.8
44.7

43.9
43.8
43.3
44.2
44.3

44.5
44.2
44.5
44.5
44.4

Spread
            
7.1
8.4
9.1
10.5
10.7

12.1
12.4
13.4
11.6
11.4

11.0
11.6
10.9
11.1
11.3

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
100.0
99.9
99.8
99.3

 

 

The Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today — and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the True Vote by 76–62m. For McCain to win, he needs approximately 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column (see the table below).

Obama exceeded 350 EV in 4862 of 5000 Monte Carlo election trial simuations, so there is a 97.2% probability that he will win at least 350 EV. He has a 58% probability of exceeding 380 EV (he won 2902 trials with more than 380 EV).

The BAD news: The Gallup LV poll has Obama’s lead down to 2 points, 49–47%; the RV poll has him ahead by 50–43%. The AP poll (43–42) generated lots of angst and had very implausible internals.

The GOOD news: the Pew RV poll has Obama up by a whopping 16 points (52–36%) — and that’s BEFORE undecided voters are allocated.  Pew is a well-known polling firm with a long history. One week ago, the Pew LV poll also indicated a commanding Obama 53–39% lead. The polls portend a MAJOR True Vote landslide. Regarding the AP poll, the two-party share was just 85%. If we allocate 2/3 of the “other” 15% to Obama, we get a 6% spread (53–47%).

The undecided vote allocation is based the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bush’s third term (GWB is not the most popular of incumbents). In fact, the Election Model (EM) base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters would typically assign 70–90%, depending on the incumbent’s approval rating.

The most critical states weighted by the electoral vote and poll spread (see below) are now FL, IN, NC, OH, MO, AZ and GA. The latest polls indicate that these states are a virtual lock: PA, MI, WI, MN, IA. With one week to go, the latest polls indicate that Obama is even within striking distance of winning these red states: Arizona (10 EV), Georgia (15), Montana (3) and North Dakota (3).

National polls are current; state polls lag the nationals by a week on average. But over the past few days, Obama’s projected state aggregate 2-party vote (55.2%) has exceeded the national average (53.5%). At the same time, Obama’s expected EV keeps rising. View the Electoral vote and projected vote share trend. Battleground state polls are now more frequent then they were a month ago, therefore the state poll aggregate should more closely match the national. View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

The EM calculates an average of the two or three most recent state polls. It projects five vote share scenarios (5000 election trials each) over a range of undecided voter allocations (UVA) from 40–90%. Obama won the base case scenario (60%) with an average 379.3 EV. The median and mode were both 381. Even in the worst-case scenario (40%), he won all 5000 trials.

The Monte Carlo mean EV (379.31) matches the theoretical summation formula EV (379.49) based on state win probabilities. This illustrates The Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the “long run”). It is computational overkill to perform a meta analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities.

Polling data source:
Electoral-vote.com
RealClearPolitics.com


Full Update with State Model:
Obama Projected Vote vs Kerry Projected Vote http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7647439&mesg_id=7647439

[Bicoastal]

1. Too bad this pollster seems a bit too biased in Obama's favor...

...but hey, what thinking person isn't?

Good stuff.

[Old and In the Way]

2. You deserve your own special forum for this analysis.

If there's more funny business this election, it would be great to have your election analysis in one location.


I sure miss TIA... :-)

[Peace Patriot]

3. This analysis presumes a "fraud free election" and predicts a "true vote landslide."

Keep those caveats in mind. This election is already fraud-ridden--with tens of thousands of registered voters unfairly purged, in Georgia, Ohio and other places. Further, it will be tabulated, everywhere, by 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, owned and controlled by rightwing Bushite corporations, with virtually no audit/recount controls.

This gives the three major election theft corporations--Diebold ("Premier"), ES&S and Sequoia--all with close ties to the Republican Party, one of them (Diebold) whose CEO was a Bush-Cheney campaign chair, and another, its spinoff corp, ES&S, with nutball extremist 'christian' ties--enormous power which can be used brutally, to outright steal any election in the country, including the presidential election, or subtly, say to shape and mold Congress to serve the rightwing agenda (done quite successfully in '06).

Here's my prediction: Obama is so popular, and the people of this country are so overwhelmingly fed up and hungry for change, that the Corpo/Fascist dragons who rule over us will not risk denying him victory. If they do, they will lose their election theft machines for future purposes (and don't kid yourself that they don't have long term plans). So they will let him win, is my guess, but they significantly shave his mandate (the pre-written narrative for this is already in play) as part of a strategy to limit the "damage" that a true representative of the people in the White House might do to Corpo/Fascist power. They also will VERY LIKELY inflict him with a Puke/'Blue Dog'-infested Congress (like the present one). They have already tied his hands--as to any kind of "New Deal" for the American people--by the financial 9/11 that the Bushwhacks just pulled off. I think they have in mind a short and tumultuous Obama term in office, with the Corpo/Fascist 'news' monopolies blaming Obama and "the liberals" for all the troubles that we may see, and they will then install someone possibly worse than Bush and Cheney in 2012.

The latter part of the above scenario is NOT a prediction, but rather what I see as the possible game plan of those who are looting us, and who now have near 100% non-transparent control of our voting system. I think they WILL shave Obama's mandate, and WILL produce a retro-Congress, and they certainly have brought the mighty twin towers of the U.S. economy--banking and trade--straight down in piles of rubble and dust. But what happens NEXT is up to us, not them. And here's what we must do to prevent their game plan from playing out...

1. First and foremost, we must--WE MUST!--restore transparent vote counting!

2. We must also undo all the purging of the voter rolls, and re-enfranchise all of our citizens; and work hard on other aspects of our democratic institutions, for instance, the news media.

3. And we must pull together! Germany fell prey to Hitler in the 1930s due to the inability of the center-left to govern a country suffering catastrophic financial ruin. We are a far different country than Germany was; still, the parallels are haunting. This means that we MUST avoid the fractiousness that is so tempting to leftists. We must realize how much danger this country is in, and how much danger our political leaders are in, after eight years of extremely damaging rule by this fascist coup. Obama is not a magician. And his leadership will be no better, and no worse, than our citizenship. PULL TOGETHER!

This ship of state is on the shoals. Its mast is broken and its sails are ripped, and it is taking on water. This not a time to be complaining about how much rum the captain permits the crew with their dinner, or the long watches, or the misery of life at sea. When the ship is going down, you don't argue with the new captain, unless you have something relevant to say about keeping the ship afloat and avoiding further dangers. It's a time for patching the sails and hewing a new mast and hoisting it up. It's a time to bail water. It's a time for the practical matter of REBUILDING our democracy, so that this country doesn't end in total wreckage. BE PRACTICAL--and pull together. If you don't like what's happening, go down to your local county registrar and take all your neighbors with you, and demand vote counting that everyone can see and understand. Or start a radio station. Or do SOMETHING that will create better conditions for true representatives of the people to operate in. Obama can only do what we empower him to do. He is otherwise as trapped as anybody by the hurricanes that the Corporate Rulers are already sending his way.

----------

Thank you, Tiptoe, for posting this analysis. It provides us with a good gage for judging whether or not I am right about a fraudulently shaved mandate. The outrage that we must face--and deal with--is that we won't know, and can't know, and have been deliberately denied the ability to know, what the real voting numbers are, and have to go to inferential evidence to guess what these 'TRADE SECRET' code machines are doing. TIA is brilliant at this task.