All Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Models Predict a 100% Obama win probability (TIA) - x

[tiptoe]

All Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Models Predict a 100% Obama win probability

TruthIsAll      source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FourMonteCarloModels.htm

Professionals and university students agree with the 2008 Election Model. Obama has a 100% probability of winning the election — not 90%, not 95%, but 100% — if ALL the votes are counted accurately and there is ZERO fraud.


Datawise Consulting   http://www.datawise-consulting.com/election.pdf
This report takes the latest poll data from each state and simulates possible outcomes of the national presidential election.
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DeSart and Holbrook  http://research.uvsc.edu/DeSart/forecasting
UPDATE - The latest run (Nov. 2) of our October Rolling forecast now predicts that Barack Obama will win the election with 53.92%* of the national 2-party popular vote
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University of Illinois  http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu
This web site has been developed by computer science and political science students. It determined a 100% Obama win probability.


270towin
An interactive site which runs 1000 Monte Carlo election trials. It also calculates a 100% Obama win probability.


Franklin & Marshall College  Simulation Shows Obama Will Win
Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor, reports that there's a 99.98% chance that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election on Tuesday. But his 50 million election trials were overkill. Only 5000 are necessary.

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Full text:  http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4362093&mesg_id=4362093

 

[dmallind]

1. Well yeah but

Nostradamus is supposedly predicting a McCain win, so that's about even for prognosticators, right? ;)

[phantom power]

2. I wonder if they tried modeling voter fraud as a systemic handicap?

[BeFree]

4. Wait for it.

TIA has done so in the past and I'm sure he'll do it again.... if he has too. I hope he doesn't.

[BeFree]

3. Most excellent!

TIA's work is among the best. He has been at the forefront of election discussion and even tho he isn't allowed to directly post here he comes thru time and again.

Thank you Tiptoe for channeling his wisdom!

[tiptoe]

6. k!

[Gman]

5. TIA also "predicted" a 95% chance of Kerry winning in 2004

even when Kerry was down 2 - 3% in the polls just before the election. It never made sense.

The problem I have had with his "predictions" is they're based on snapshot data and don't take into consideration trends or movement. If you use data that says Obama is ahead, the result will be data that predicts an Obama win.

[BeFree]

7. Oh,

...the trends and movements were all for Kerry in 2004. And most of the polls showed Kerry winning.

There was a 20% increase in voters -2004>2000. Estimates of close to 30M first timers. So, bush would have had to have gotten 17M of those 30M. Not likely at all. Pretty much impossible actually.

Historically, with any where near a 20% increase over 4 years, Dems always won.