11/03 FINAL ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 367 EV; State-54.3% Natl-54.1%; MAY EC MODEL PROJECTED 54.1%

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2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: November 3

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

11/03/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote

Obama
McCain
 51.3 (53.94) 
 43.8 (46.06) 
 51.1 (53.79) 
 43.9 (46.21) 
54.28
45.7
54.14
45.9
 365.3 
 172.7 

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Research2k
Gallup
Zogby
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen

ABC/WP
Battleground
NBC/WSJ
CNN
Pew

CBS
Marist
FOX News
Ipsos
Pew

Registered V
vs     Likely V
Poll Averages

Date
            
11/02
11/02
11/02
11/02
11/02

11/02
10/30
11/02
11/01
11/01

10/31
10/29
10/29
10/27
10/26

Size   
              
1100 LV
2847 RV
1201 LV
882 LV
3000 LV

2446 RV
1000 LV
1011 LV
1017 LV
2587 RV

1005 LV
543 LV
924 LV
831 LV
1325 RV

RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party

MoE
         
2.95%
1.84%
2.83%
3.30%
1.79%

1.98%
3.10%
3.08%
3.07%
1.93%

3.09%
4.21%
3.22%
3.40%
2.69%

Obama
            
51
52
51
50
51

54
49
51
51
49

54
50
47
50
52

51.75
50.45
50.80
54.20

McCain
            
44
41
44
45
46

42
45
43
43
42

41
43
44
45
36

40.25
43.91
42.93
45.80

Other
            
5
7
5
5
3

4
6
6
6
9

5
7
9
5
12

8.00
5.64
6.27
0.00

Spread
            
7
11
7
5
5

12
4
8
8
7

13
7
3
5
16

11.50
6.55
7.87
8.39

 

Obama
            
51.1
51.1
51.0
50.7
51.3

51.1
50.1
50.3
50.4
50.7

51.1
50.4
50.9
51.3
51.6

McCain
            
43.9
43.7
44.0
43.7
43.1

42.7
43.0
43.0
42.0
41.7

41.3
41.1
40.6
40.3
39.9

Spread
            
7.3
7.4
7.0
7.0
8.1

8.4
7.1
7.3
8.4
9.0

9.9
9.3
10.3
11.0
11.7

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.8
99.2

100.0
96.6
100.0
99.9
100.0

99.9
92.6
98.6
100.0
100.0

 

Obama
            
54.1
54.2
54.0
54.1
54.6

54.8
54.3
54.3
55.0
55.3

55.7
55.5
56.0
56.3
56.7

McCain
            
45.9
45.8
46.0
45.9
45.4

45.2
45.7
45.7
45.0
44.7

44.3
44.5
44.0
43.7
43.3

Spread
            
8.3
8.5
8.0
8.1
9.3

9.7
8.5
8.6
9.9
10.5

11.4
11.0
12.0
12.7
13.4

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.7

100.0
99.1
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
99.0
99.6
100.0
100.0

 

 

FINAL PROJECTION:  Obama wins by     76–64 million votes     367–171 EV     53–45% vote share margin.

The model projects that Obama will carry 30 states + DC:

CA CO CT DE FL HI IL IA ME MD / MA MI MN MO MT NV NH NJ NM NY / NC ND OH OR PA RI VT VA WA WI

The 2008 Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today — and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the Electoral Vote by 367–171. The final projected vote share is Obama-53.1 McCain-44.9% Other-2.0%. The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%.

In May, the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71–59m  (54.1–44.7%).

For the 2008 EC to match the EM, its estimate of returning 60.5m-Kerry and 51.6m-Bush voters had to be accurate.
The EC used 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares to calculate the projections.
In other words, the 2008 EC and EM confirmed that Kerry won a landslide (see below).

•••

 

The 2008 Election Calculator Model confirms the 2004 and 2008 Election Model (and vice-versa)

In May 2008, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71–59m (54.1–44.7%).

Checking the 2004 Election Calculator (EC) True Vote and the 2008 Election Model (EM) Projections

 

On Nov.3, 2008 the following test was performed:

The 12:22am 2004 Preliminary NEP vote shares (13,047 random sample, 1% MoE...link below) were input to the 2008 EC.
In the 2008 EM, 75% UVA and 3rd party 1% share were input to match 2004 EC assumptions.
The resulting 2008 EC calculated True Vote projection closely matched the independent 2008 EM Polls-projection (to within 0.2%).
Therefore, the 2004 EC vote shares and weighting mix are also confirmed and therefore must be fairly accurate.
The 2008 EC could only be accurate (and match the EM), if the input estimate of returning 2004 Bush and Kerry voters was also accurate.
The model estimates 60m returning Kerry voters and 51.6m returning Bush voters.
Given a 75% UVA and 1% to Other, the EC projects Obama will win by 78.3–63.8 million votes, assuming a fraud-free election.
Note that the base case EM is 60% UVA and 2% Other

2008 Election Calculator (EC)

2004-Voters  Return
in 2008  — Estimate

 

True 'Voted 2004'
Mix  Calculated

12:22am NEP Shares ('13047')

In 2004

Kerry
Bush
Other

125.7

Turnout '08
DNV
95%
95%
95%

113.7

 

Votes
29.9
60.6
51.6
1.6

143.7

Mix
20.8%
42.2%
35.9%
1.1%

100.0%

Obama
57%
91%
10%
64%

54.5%

McCain
41%
8%
90%
17%

44.4%

Other
2%
1%
0%
19%

1.1%

75% UVA

143.7

78.3

63.8

1.5

 

 

2008 Election Model (75% UVA) (EM)

54.3%

44.7%

1.0%

 

143.7

78.0

64.3

1.4

 

2008 Election Model (60% UVA) (EM)

53.1%

44.9%

2.0%

 

143.7

75.9

64.2

2.9

•••



Full text with State Model: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4366707&mesg_id=4366707

 

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1. K&R.

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:toast:, TIA.