2008 Election Model: Predicted the Electoral and Popular vote … but not the True Vote
TruthIsAll source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008ElectionModel365EV.htmNovember 11, 2008The Final
2008 Election Model (
EM) projection exactly matched the
365–
173 electoral and recorded popular vote. The model projected that Obama would receive
365.3 expected electoral votes with a
53.1–
44.9% share. He has a
65.3–
57.4m recorded vote margin.
But the landslide was denied. Obama did better than the EM and recorded vote indicates. Only 124m votes have been recorded; 140m were forecast. According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105m were recorded of 110.8m cast. Democrats traditionally win 70–80% of the uncounted vote.Obama’s Expected EV is calculated as the product sum of the
state win probabilities and corresponding electoral vote. In equation form:
Expected EV = Σ Win Prob(i) * EV(i), for i = 1,51 states
The state win probability is a function of the final 2–3 average polling spread and 3% margin of error (1200–1800 total sample). These parameters are input to the Excel normal distribution probability function to calculate the win probability.
The
expected EV was close to the 365.8
average EV obtained in the Monte Carlo simulation. Obama won all 5000 trials; his total electoral vote win probability was 100%.
The
EM projected projected that Obama would win by
75.9–
64.2m out of
143m total votes cast and capture
60% of
undecided voters (the
base case UVA scenario). The 75% UVA scenario gave him
53.9% (or 55.0% of the two-party vote) and
379.5 EV.
The
2008 Election Calculator (
EC) is a complementary True Vote model that is based on an estimated, feasible returning-2004-voter mix. It projected that Obama would win the True Vote with a
54.5–
44.4% share (
78.3–
63.8m).
The
EC also projected a fraud scenario: 3% of total votes cast are
uncounted and 3%
switched to McCain. Obama's True Vote margin would then be reduced to 52.2–46.8% share (72.8–65.2m).
Right wing pundits are claiming that Obama’s 8 million vote margin is not a mandate, unlike the Bush 3m “mandate” in 2004. But we know that Obama won by
even more than 8 million votes. The
True Vote will only be revealed, if there is a real investigation by the courts, Congress and/or the Media. Don’t hold your breath.
2004/2008 Election Model and Election Calculator(input assumptions and base case scenario results)
2008EM - Obama 53.1% 365.3 expected EV 60% UVA.
EC - Obama 54.5%; feasible mix of returning 2004 voters and 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares.
2004EM - Kerry
51.3% 337 expected EV, 75% UVA
State Exit Poll Aggregate (Edison-Mitofsky
WPE, "unadjusted"):
52–
47%EC - Kerry
53.2%; feasible mix of returning 2000 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.