How the National Exit Poll Badly Missed the Latino Vote in 2010

[EFerrari]

Posted on November 4, 2010 by Latino Decisions

By: Gary Segura & Matt Barreto

Latino Decisions estimates differ significantly from the network exit polls and this raises the question of whether we, or they, have a systematic flaw (complete Latino Decisions Election Polls posted here). Examination of the method of selection, clustered interviews, statistical properties of the resulting samples, uneven distribution of minority populations, and the low incidence of bilingual interviewing all suggest that the exit poll estimates for racial and ethnic sub-populations, reported in the National Exit Pool surveys, systematically underestimate Latino and African-American Democratic vote share by over-representing higher income, higher education, and more socially integrated minority voters than their share of the electorate warrants.

The problem of faulty exit poll data for Latinos is not new, yet very few in the media have expertise in polling Latinos and analyzing Latino vote data, and as a result are not in a position to assess on election night the veracity of the Latino results. In January 2005 in the aftermath of the 2004 Bush-Kerry election, Warren Mitofsky, the head of the 2004 National Exit Poll, wrote in a self-assessment of the erroneous exit poll data, “Some estimates differ by several points among certain demographic groups, most noticeably among Hispanics. These differences appear mostly among demographic groups that are both relatively small and those that tend to be geographically concentrated.” While Mitofsky’s NEP data suggested Bush won 44% of the Latino vote, the Latino-only focused exit poll by the William C. Velasquez Institute estimated Bush won just 31% of the Latino vote.

We believe the data convincingly show that the 2010 national exit poll severely misestimated the Latino vote, and almost any expert who studies the Latino vote would agree that the Latino Decisions Election Poll is far more accurate. (more on our methodology here)

http://latinodecisions.wordpress.com/2010/11/04/how-the-national-exit-poll-badly-missed-the-latino-vote-in-2010/

For your consideration. Worth a look, imho, considering that election fraud in this country is often done on the backs of minority voters. ef

[EFerrari]

1. So, does the NEP routinely mis/underestimate the Latino and black Democratic vote?

When I read this article, it looks like the answer is, yes.

:shrug:

[molly77]

2. I'll bet you are right. Soo much voter intimidation at minority poll sites.

[EFerrari]

3. If they only poll in a few middle class neighborhoods

that skews the results for minority voters to the right, or, that's how I'm understanding this article. :shrug:

[RDANGELO]

4. What election fraud are you talking about? n/t

[EFerrari]

5. I'm talking about the tactics that were used in 2000 and 2004, mainly.

Knocking eligible voters off the rolls illegally, vote caging, vote challenging, under-supplying minority precincts, and voter intimidation. The Republicans targeted minority voters as well as some military and student voters.

[glitch]

6. Check out this forum

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203