Wayne Madsen wrote: "According to informed sources in Washington and Houston, the Bush campaign spent some $29 million to pay polling place operatives around the country to rig the election for Bush. The operatives were posing as Homeland Security and FBI agents but were actually technicians familiar with Diebold, Sequoia, ES&S, Triad, Unilect, and Danaher Controls voting machines. These technicians reportedly hacked the systems to skew the results in favor of Bush. ...Some of the technicians are revealing the nature of the vote rigging program."
If true, we might find a correlation between reports of voting machine incidents and the gap between Bush's official vote share and his share in exit polls. Do we?
- 1694 machine problems reported in Bush-shift states (i.e., states where Bush's official vote share exceeded his exit poll share)
- 225 machine problems reported in Kerry-shift states
- 12.34 machine problems (1694/137249530) per 1 mil pop in Bush-shift states
- 4.34 machine problems (225/51808720) per 1 mil pop in Kerry-shift states
- 27.78 machine problems (803/28900830) per 1 mil pop in OH, FL, and PA
- LA, GA, DC, NM, AZ, OH, PA, FL, NY, and CO had off-the-charts reports of machine errors (13.6-104 vs. 4.35 in other states). 68.5% of machine error reports occurred in these states.
The top 14 states, ordered by reported machine problems per population, ALL experienced pro-Bush vote surprises (relative to exit poll data). Here are the top 20 states:
State Kerry shift Reported machine problems per mil people
LA -2.08 104.31
GA -1.59 58.78
DC -0.09 48.13
NM -1.81 42.19
AZ -2.56 29.36
OH -3.1 28.72
PA -3.35 27.47
FL -3.03 27.36
NY -3.82 14.03
CO -1.63 13.57
MI -0.98 9.89
IL -2 9.78
NJ -1.46 9.44
SC -4.59 9.25
VA 0.25 6.52
WI -1.99 6.36
TX 1.38 5.47
NC -4 5.37
CA 1.56 4.81
AL -4 4.54
The graph with all 51 states is astonishing. I would include it here if I could.
Here's the full raw data (someone please confirm my analysis):
State Exit poll Vote Kerry shift Prob >MOE? by Favor Reported machine problems Voting eligible population Reported machine problems per 1 mil people
LA 44.5 42.42 -2.08 8.80% -0.92 Bush 130 1,246,333 104.31
GA 43 41.41 -1.59 15.00% -1.41 Bush 50 850,605 58.78
DC 91 90.91 -0.09 47.60% -2.91 Bush 20 415,549 48.13
NM 51.3 49.49 -1.81 11.90% -1.19 Bush 53 1,256,228 42.19
AZ 47 44.44 -2.56 4.70% -0.44 Bush 36 1,226,111 29.36
OH 52.1 49 -3.1 2.10% Yes 0.1 Bush 240 8,357,632 28.72
PA 54.35 51 -3.35 1.40% Yes 0.35 Bush 251 9,137,942 27.47
FL 50.5 47.47 -3.03 2.40% Yes 0.03 Bush 312 11,405,256 27.36
NY 63 59.18 -3.82 0.60% Yes 0.82 Bush 179 12,755,788 14.03
CO 49.1 47.47 -1.63 14.40% -1.37 Bush 43 3,168,132 13.57
MI 52.5 51.52 -0.98 26.00% -2.02 Bush 71 7,177,100 9.89
IL 57 55 -2 9.60% -1 Bush 84 8,591,897 9.78
NJ 55 53.54 -1.46 16.90% -1.54 Bush 54 5,719,150 9.44
SC 46 41.41 -4.59 0.10% Yes 1.59 Bush 28 3,026,569 9.25
VA 45.2 45.45 0.25 56.60% -2.75 Kerry 34 5,215,501 6.52
WI 52.5 50.51 -1.99 9.60% -1.01 Bush 25 3,928,744 6.36
TX 37 38.38 1.38 81.70% -1.62 Kerry 75 13,717,144 5.47
NC 48 44 -4 0.40% Yes 1 Bush 32 5,962,213 5.37
CA 54 55.56 1.56 84.50% -1.44 Kerry 104 21,604,925 4.81
AL 41 37 -4 0.40% Yes 1 Bush 15 3,306,127 4.54
MS 43.25 40 -3.25 1.70% Yes 0.25 Bush 8 2,078,971 3.85
MT 39.75 39.8 0.05 51.20% -2.95 Kerry 2 678,519 2.95
NV 49.35 48.48 -0.87 28.60% -2.13 Bush 4 1,432,776 2.79
WY 30.9 29.59 -1.31 19.60% -1.69 Bush 1 361,972 2.76
MD 57 56.57 -0.43 38.80% -2.57 Bush 9 3,718,868 2.42
OK 35 34 -1 25.70% -2 Bush 6 2,504,660 2.40
HI 53.3 54.55 1.25 79.20% -1.75 Kerry 2 850,605 2.35
IN 41 39.39 -1.61 14.70% -1.39 Bush 8 4,470,971 1.79
MA 66 62.63 -3.37 1.40% Yes 0.37 Bush 8 4,557,561 1.76
WA 54.95 53.54 -1.41 17.80% -1.59 Bush 7 4,167,093 1.68
AR 46.6 45.45 -1.15 22.70% -1.85 Bush 3 1,956,947 1.53
MO 47.5 46 -1.5 16.40% -1.5 Bush 6 4,123,493 1.46
WV 45.25 43.43 -1.82 11.80% -1.18 Bush 2 1,398,424 1.43
TN 41.5 43 1.5 83.60% -1.5 Kerry 6 4,280,835 1.40
RI 64 60.61 -3.39 1.30% Yes 0.39 Bush 1 735,273 1.36
MN 54.5 51.52 -2.98 2.60% -0.02 Bush 4 3,554,277 1.13
KS 35 37.37 2.37 94.00% -0.63 Kerry 2 1,939,135 1.03
ME 54.75 54.08 -0.67 33.10% -2.33 Bush 1 983,468 1.02
UT 30.5 27.55 -2.95 2.70% -0.05 Bush 1 1,502,926 0.67
KY 41 40 -1 25.70% -2 Bush 2 3,071,048 0.65
AK 40.5 36.08 -4.42 0.20% Yes 1.42 Bush 419,884 0.00
VT 65 60.2 -4.8 0.10% Yes 1.8 Bush 467,720 0.00
ND 34 36.36 2.36 93.90% -0.64 Kerry 471,602 0.00
SD 37.75 39.39 1.64 85.90% -1.36 Kerry 554,959 0.00
DE 58.5 53.54 -4.96 0.10% Yes 1.96 Bush 571,361 0.00
NH 55.4 50.51 -4.89 0.10% Yes 1.89 Bush 935,291 0.00
ID 33.5 30.61 -2.89 3.00% -0.11 Bush 947,688 0.00
NE 36.75 32.32 -4.43 0.20% Yes 1.43 Bush 1,224,648 0.00
IA 50.65 49.49 -1.16 22.50% -1.84 Bush 2,155,725 0.00
CT 58.5 55.1 -3.4 1.30% Yes 0.4 Bush 2,377,109 0.00
OR 51.2 52 0.8 69.90% -2.2 Kerry 2,495,495 0.00
Data sources:
Exit poll, vote, and Kerry shift: DU member TruthIsAll (www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=79036&mesg_id=79036)
Reported machine problems: Election Incident Reporting System - "Machine problems" (
https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&tab=ALL&cat=02&start_time=&start_date=&end_time=&end_date=&search=)
Voting eligible population: "Voting-Age and Voting-Eligible Population Turnout Rates" (
http://elections.gmu.edu/VAP_VEP.htm)