Everyone does realize that Kerry just needs to get within

[RawMaterials]

45000 votes in Ohio to have an automatic recount.
this should happen, after all the provo votes are counted.

plus with the news that Kerry is just starting to get involved legally
things might get interesting from now till the 13th when the electoral college votes. maybe he waited till now for the most momentum going into the 13th?

[sabra]

1. How do you know that?

"this should happen, after all the provo votes are counted" ?

[RawMaterials]

6. just speculation but Kerry got and extra

10000 in chyahoga county plus the 4000 over votes that didn't count in guana(small town outside Columbus), plus the warren county locked out media during there original count(they gave 40000 or so to bush), maybe i just have a little faith but it could happen.

[demnan]

2. I'm sorry

but Kerry has conceded. I don't think he's going to unconcede at this juncture.

[intheflow]

5. Cosidering his legal team is getting in on the recount action...

...I wouldn't count him out of the picture yet. His concession is not legally binding.

[malatesta1137]

24. it's MORALLY binding however

he gave up an fled. This new filing is a formality to counter criticism from the left. It's not going anywhere.

[Shalom]

30. Not Morally Binding When Other Side Cheats, Lies, and Steals

Kerry did not flee - we are better off that he is acting formally now that we have a basis to file papers.

1. Kerry fought with his heart and soul, beat bush in 3 debates, and won the election.

2. Bush stole the trophy.

3. We are helping Kerry win back what he won.

This is a legal process that will proceed regardless of our opinion. If you think it is going nowhere, it would have gone nowhere if Kerry filed weeks ago.

Everyone else feels this is progress - whey don't you ?

[malatesta1137]

46. This is NOT progress

It's a waste of time and worthless. Look at Ukraine and learn.

And so far, yes, Kerry did flee. He knew Bush was going to steal MONTHS AND MONTHS ago, and yet did nothing.

Legal processes in America are a waste of time, courts are corrupted by Republicans, especially the Supreme Court, or did you forget 2000?

[AndrewClarke]

9. automatic

. . . means just that. A concession would have nothing to do with it.

It doesn't matter anyway--there's going to be a recount, thanks to Cobb and Badnarik.

[bunny planet]

15. Gore had conceded at first too, it means nothing.

[merh]

41. You don't have to unconcede if the votes show you won

the election in a state - the electoral votes go to you any way and if you have enough electoral votes, you win the election.

THERE IS NOTHING BINDING ABOUT A CONCESSION!

[texpatriot2004]

3. Kerry is closing in on him in Ohio.

I think you are right about the timing. I think they know what they are doing.

[Pirate Smile]

11. The numbers of the provisionals so far haven't shown it getting anywhere

near that close - do you know what it is at now?

This morning I thought Kerry had only picked up around 8,000 votes on *.

I hope you are right, but how many provisional are even left to be analyzed and counted or thrown out?

I have been disappointed that we hadn't picked up more during the count.

[flyarm]

23. remember what jesse jackson said yesterday!!

yesterday jesse jackson said ..on the day kerry conceeded he was told by blakwell what the numbers of kerry 's loss was..but jackson said...how do we know what those numbers really were???

yeah we have all heard the 136,000 vote ..but yesterday jackson let something slip..or was it on purpose...that how do we or kerry know those numbers were correct???

fly

[seito]

14. Haven't we been saying...

It is all about the timing!!!!

We frame the debate and we set the time frame to expose it.

[texpatriot2004]

16. yes, we have, aren't we good.

[graywarrior]

4. Kerry doesn't let things just drift. Loose lips and all that.

He may surprise some people here.

[texpatriot2004]

17. I agree, I look forward to his surprise

[Patsy Stone]

7. I've always said it's like in Caddyshack

At the end, when Brian Doyle Murray is waiting and watching for the ball to fall in the cup, with the golf course blowing up all around him.

Count the votes, drip, drip, drip...

Go Team!

[understandinglife]

10. Once again, you find just the right movie comparison...

....and I appreciate the smile I'm now enjoying. Thanks.

Peace.

"I Delcare The Election Invalid: Someone I do not know was prevented from voting"

[AndrewClarke]

8. recount

They don't need an automatic recount; a recount has already been contested.

There aren't enough provisional ballots left to get Kerry within 45,000 anyway.

[RawMaterials]

12. Blackwell is taking his sweet ass time with everything. n/m

[Melodybe]

13. Well when they found the extra 93,000 Bush votes

that helped Kerry out a good bit.

They completely padded Bush's popular vote, 20,000 here 40,000 there. It adds up.

[Stand and Fight]

38. Get your facts straight

A recount has not been contested! Having the recount early has been contested Mr. "I know it All" Andrew Clarke. The SoS, Ken Blackwell even said there would be one the other night.

Read the article:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/sfl-aohio30nov30,0,4578589.story?coll=sfla-news-nationworld

[MrUnderhill]

18. Kerry has only picked up ~5400 votes with 79 of 88 counties reporting.

There aren't enough provisional/absentee votes left to come anywhere near a 45000 vote recount threshold.

http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com

The website says "some of the largest counties have still not reported" - but based on the statistics they post (and assuming a continued 78% acceptance rate), there are only around 18000 votes left to be counted. Even if Kerry wins them all he's still down by around 110,000 votes. And he's not going to win them all... he's likely to pick up around 5000 more votes total and come up about 125,000 votes.


On edit - It's worse than I thought. Cuyahoga is already in and accounts for about 9,000 votes gained for Kerry (in other words, Bush actually gained about 3000 votes in the rest of the state). The remaining counties may be a wash.

[ewulf]

40. 78%!?!

How did the acceptance rate get so low? Wasn't it ~90% in 2000? I also remember something in the 85% last month... Hm...

I wonder what percentage of the rejected provisionals were for Kerry.

[MrUnderhill]

45. 78% is actually pretty high nationally

It probably dropped off because of the high number of first time voters. A higher percentage of which probably didn't understand how to vote.

It could also be the number of voters who hadn't voted in years. They may not have understood that they need to re-register if they haven't voted in a certain number of years (8?) and thought they were still registered.

I'm not going to make an assumption on the partisan breakdown of rejected ballots because:

1) We've been burned on these assumptions before - most recently the assumption that the VALID provisionals would break heavily toward Kerry and,

2) Many of these assumptions always seem to me to rest on the notion that minorities are "stupider" than the rest of us and therefore are more likely to do it wrong. I have a problem with that.

That having been said... a couple counties with HIGHER rejection rates (Cuyahoga) WERE heavy Kerry counties, so even a breakdown along the lines of each county's ballots would give Kerry a couple thousand extra votes.

[andym]

19. getting within 45k votes by the provisionals is not likely

Bush was leading by about 130,000. There were about 155K provisionals. And about 76% are being considered valid: so that leaves approximately 120K ballots. To reach a 45,000 differential then Kerry needs a 85,000(130K -85K) lead in the provisionals. That means we want K - B = 85,000 and K + B = 120,000, solving for K, we get K = 102.5K and B= 17.5K. So Kerry needs 85.4% of the provisionals, which is probably too much to be expected given that many ballots are from conservative counties.

[Truthbeknown]

20. Prove election fraud

and those votes don't matter.

[RawMaterials]

21. what happens if election fraud is proved?

if bush is responsible then its voter gate, but if he is not is there a re-vote or would the electoral college just vote differently.

[Truthbeknown]

22. Re-Vote,I think,but not sure

[DoYouEverWonder]

27. The candidate is responsible for their campaign

Bush is directly responsible for any wrongdoing by any of the people that worked for him. Blackwell was his the co-chair of his Campaign in OH. He isn't just some low level staffer. He has a direct connection to the top of the ticket.

[MrUnderhill]

33. Neither.

The electoral college slate could not be switched to Kerry without the state certifying a different result (virtually impossible at this point). And a re-vote is not legally possible either.

At best, the votes would be contested in the congress and THEY would decide who to seat (if anyone). I think we already know how THAT would turn out.

[malatesta1137]

26. who are you going to prove it to?

the mobsters on the Supreme Court, they will all laugh at you.

[Peter Frank]

28. ...'who are you going to prove it to?'...

Prove it to the American people, and the courts will have to take it seriously.

[malatesta1137]

44. like they took seriously in 2000

don't make me laugh.

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Peter Frank]

35. I'm an Independent.

This issue has nothing to do with party affiliation. Go to http://www.blackboxvoting.org and see for yourself -- the nature of the irregularities & how the machines could have been hacked via modem. ...And pay close attention to the physical evidence of outright fraud in Volusia County, Fla.

[MrUnderhill]

36. If we had picked Lieberman... what would have been the difference?

We could have nominated Zell Miller and gotten HIM elected in a snap too...


But I think we prefered an actual Democrat.

[New Earth]

37. you do realize you are now spamming

that is about the 4th thread you have posted the same shit in.

[Peter Frank]

43. Exactly...

I called him on it here -- http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x97800#98523

[Catherine Vincent]

39. You voted for Bush?!?!

Get the fuck out of here!

[Stand and Fight]

42. Right on!!!

I second that -- I like your fire!

[colonel odis]

25. we'll be "attacked" by "terrorists" if ohio comes close to going for kerry

you can bet the farm on it.

if it looks like there's a serious challenge to bush's alleged re-election, all hell will break loose. there's no way those people are going to let power slip from their fat, sweaty, little hands.

[Patsy Stone]

31. Bright, Flashing Red, Baby!!!

The light will turn so fast, you'll still be in the middle of the intersection while it's happening.

[graywarrior]

29. Kerry, the.....

....closer.

[righteous1]

32. It's .25% not .5%

It's .25% for statewide elections .5 for local. works out to be ~15,000votes