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so I don't have a nice clear answer to your thoughtful post.
The following are my opinions and observations:
With the advent of the Internet and self-publishing, there certainly are many more options for authors nowadays. However, the self-publishing industry is now so large that one must have a brilliant way to stand out from the crowd. Depending upon the genre, there are a myriad of ways to go. Marketing a self-published nonfiction book is much easier, as it's easier to do niche marketing based upon the topic. For that same reason, traditional publishing has trended much more strongly toward publishing nonfiction for the same reasoon (and, to my dismay, simply by jumping on the celebrity bandwagon as the primary source of who they're publishing). HOWEVER, my experience has primarily been in nonfiction until recently, and I believe nonfiction is facing real battles. As more and more people learn to get information online, there is less and less of a need to purchase these books. I used to buy lots of nonfiction of all types; now, I spend an hour or so online and can get the same information.
Most agree that only the traditional large publishing houses have the marketing muscle and money to rocket a book to the top, so that's still the Holy Grail for most. HOWEVER, even then, they publish so few (in relation to the manuscripts they purchase) that their marketing efforts are geared to essentially a handful; they'll eventually take a look at any promise shown by a not-so-heavily-marketed novel when they evaluate where to put their efforts when it comes to paperback release, so sometimes a diamond in the rough can get a second wind.
Niche marketing seems to be the key, even for novels...then broadening the marketing efforts through word of mouth. I'm a huge fan of grassroots efforts of all types, which is why I think in this direction and am trying to come up with a marketing plan - a rather generic yet focused plan which could apply to any books I'm involved with (editor, researcher, ghostwriter, etc.).
Another interesting point is that, regardless of whether an author/agent is approaching a small, mid or large publishing house, having a marketing plan already developed is often required before they'll really look at your manuscript.
So, after a writer has poured blood, sweat and tears (literally) into a novel, nowadays it's largely up to him/her to develop a marketing plan. Even if a world-class agent or publisher expresses an interest, the reality that it could be purchased yet never published is very real unless the author has a very proactive plan in place.
Granted, if one has time and patience (which, admittedly, I no longer feel I have at this age and this particular time in my life...I'm extremely tired), one could slowly develop an online campaign (myspace, a presence on messageboards to tout the book/author, etc., etc.).
Perhaps after I have more coffee this morning, the entire process won't seem so daunting and exhausting...lol.
:hi:
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