The Fourth Turning, by William Strauss and Neil Howe

[Odin2005]

I happened to come across http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generations_%28book%29">this Wiki article when I was looking for stuff on differences in voting patterns in different generations. The book sounded so interesting I decided to go to Barnes and Noble and buy it. It's a good read for folks interested in US history. The main thesis of the book is that there is a 70-100 year long cyclical pattern in American history based on a 4-part cycle in the behavior and experiences of each generation. The end of each cycle is a crisis period (The American War of Independence, The American Civil War, The Great Depression and WW2) that results in a new civic order, and the middle of the cycle is marked by a spiritual "awakening" (the 3 "Great Awakenings" of the 1700's and 1800's and the social movements of the 1960's and 70's) of the that challenges the civic order erected in the previous crisis. According to the authors we are entering a crisis period right now and that my generation (the Millenials, born between 1982 and 2003) is the equivalent of the GI Generation that won WW2 (born between 1901 and 1924).

[iamahaingttta]

1. We are in the winter part of the cycle...

...and it's gonna get worse before it gets better.
It's about the middle of January now.
February is gonna be a bitch!
But then spring will come and things will bet better.
For a while...

[Odin2005]

3. Nah, more like early December, we're not that far into the 4T, yet.

9/11 was a "false turning," that is the national mood collapsed back to 3T/Fall mode because the Neocons squandered the post 9/11 national unity by invading Iraq (which is your typical 3T war, lots of action but little planning to make things work when the day is done). The real trigger, IMO was Katrina, starting in the fall of '05 there was a distinctive change in the national mood typical of the very start of a crisis phase. the 2008 elections will be the equivalent of the 1932 elections.

[Odin2005]

2. I've been thinking that this might explain why I get flamed in...

...threads where I suggest that if we want to win elections we shouln't be so dogmatic on cultural issues. The baby boomers get into self righteous hissy-fits because "prophet" generations tend to take issues personally and get dogmatic in mid-life while us Millies, a "Civic" generation, tend to be pragmatic.

[Mist]

4. I've been intrigued with Strauss and Howe's books for some time--have

you read "Generations: A History of America's Future"? I find Strauss and Howe's presentations convincing--I run their observations through my mind and think of the different generations I've known, and their reactions to things, and so much seems to fit. Also, there's a 4th turning site you might be interested in: http://www.fourthturning.com/

[Odin2005]

5. I already post on thier forums under the username "Odin"

:)

[Odin2005]

6. Oh, and here's the link to the 4th Turning message board.

http://www.fourthturning.com/forum


The Bush-Bot poster Zilch, alias Devil's Advocate, alias Marc Lamb are hilarious!

[Odin2005]

7. *kick*