Who remembers this book from the dark days of 2002? "The Emerging Democratic Majority"

[Richardo]

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/514PW3RBMJL._SL500_BO2,204,203,200_PIsitb-dp-500-arrow,TopRight,45,-64_OU01_AA240_SH20_.jpg

http://www.amazon.com/Emerging-Democratic-Majority-John-Judis/dp/0743254783/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1212430146&sr=8-1

I have not read it, but I think I'm going to. Remember, the Dems had just lost the Senate and Bush was on an unstoppable post-911 high. This book is truly prescient - check the bolded section below:


From Publishers Weekly
In 1969 a prescient Kevin Phillips published The Emerging Republican Majority, predicting the rise of the conservative Republican movement. Now Judis, a senior editor at the New Republic, and Teixeira, a fellow at the Century Foundation and author of The Disappearing American Voter, argue that, if current demographic and political trends continue, a new realignment of political power is inevitable, this time sweeping Democrats to power.

In support of their thesis they argue that the electorate is becoming increasingly diverse, with growing Asian, Hispanic and African-American populations-all groups that tend to vote Democratic. On the other hand, the number of white Americans, the voting population most likely to favor Republicans, remains static. Further, according to the authors, America's transition from an industrial to a postindustrial economy is also producing voters who trend strongly Democratic. Judis and Teixeira coin the word "ideopolis" for the geographic areas where the postindustrial economy thrives.

They also argue that other changes, specifically the growing educated professional class and the continuing "gender gap," will benefit Democrats, whose political ideology is more consonant with the needs and beliefs of women and professionals. Judis and Teixeira predict that all these elements will converge by 2008, at the latest, when a new Democratic majority will emerge.*....


*

[no limit]

1. Back then I would have called such a prediction insane

now I have no reason to doubt it. Great find, K&R.

[Juche]

2. Read it, it was decent

I think it went on too long for a book revolving around a few simple ideas, but it was ok. However the authors do not go far enough. They wrote an update talking about how independents and youth also lean democrat so that is also going to give bigger majorities.

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=back_to_the_future061807

There are other trends that favor the dems that aren't addressed:

A lack of economic security will push people into the dem catagory, and also give birth to a new union movement. When 20%+ of hte public are in unions it'll help the dems out alot.

The country is becoming more secularized and less religious right.

The country is becoming more urban and less rural.

The south is supposedly changing due to immigration from other parts of the country, higher voter turnout among liberals there and a less radicalized youth vote. So even their stronghold in the south may start to crumble in the next decade.

The nuclear family is breaking and there are alot more common law relationships, gay relationships, lifelong singles, divorcees etc. all of which lean democrat.

Fundamentally the GOP of today is a party of white, financially secure upper middle class, married (with children), rural voters. Every one of these demographics is falling apart and shrinking while their opposite is coming up. We are becoming a non-white, economically insecure, non-traditional familied, urban nation.