"Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats"

[Jefferson23]

An interview with the author at the Democracy Now link below.



JUAN GONZALEZ: A heat wave from Boston to Baghdad to Beijing over the past few days is setting record-breaking temperatures in cities across the world. In Beijing, the mercury level hit a near-record 105 degrees. In Baghdad it was 113 degrees. In Kuwait, 122. Here in the U.S., cities along the East Coast from New York to Charlotte all topped 100 degrees. Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Newark all set new record highs. Indeed 2010 is set to be one of the hottest years on record according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. The global average surface temperature for the first time in five months of the year was the warmest on record. Meanwhile, a new analysis says the world is headed for an average temperature rise that far exceeds pledges at the Copenhagen climate conference last year. According to the climate interactive scoreboard, temperatures are expected to rise nearly 4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, double the maximum two degrees discussed in Copenhagen. A separate analysis from the Postdam Institute in Germany says there’s virtually no chance current pledges will keep temperatures below two degrees and predicts an increase of 3.5 degrees.

AMY GOODMAN: Well, a new book by geopolitical analyst and columnist Gwynne Dyer imagines what the politics and demographics of the world might look like if temperatures continue to rise. Dyer writes 'In this world our worries are not just hotter summers, bigger hurricanes, rising sea levels, and polar bears swimming for their lives. We're trying to avoid megadeaths from mass starvation and quite possibly from nuclear wars and the odds aren’t good," he writes.The book is called "Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats." Author Gwynne Dyer, joins us here freelance journalist and specialist on international affairs and geopolitics. His written several books.

Welcome to "DEMOCRACY NOW!"

GWYNNE DYER: Thank you.

AMY GOODMAN: Can you lay out the scenario, what you could see it happen?

GWYNNE DYER: The military themselves have begun making plans and making provisions for the kind of roles they perceive themselves having in a warming world. Really what drives almost all of their scenarios is that the principal impact of warming on human beings is on the food supply. That the hotter it gets, the less food we can grow. About 1 degree Celsius average global temperature rise, you lose 10% of the supply, global grain production, rule of thumb. And there’s no slack in the system, we are eating all that we grow. And so what they see is a variety of ills arising from absolute shortage of food-–refugees coming up against borders that do not want to let them in, but you’re starving back home, their farm is dried up and blowing away. You are trying to get in some place where there is food and they do not want to let you in. It gets very ugly in that sort of border. Failed States, a government that cannot feed its own people does not survive. Job one, keep people alive. If you cannot do that, you’ve no credibility left. In some cases, real interstate wars. Because in very many parts of the world, several countries share the same river, which is fine when there is enough water to go around. When there is not, the upstream countries got a serious temptation to hold on to enough water for itself and the hell with the down Street countries. Then they have the choice of five or starve. India and Pakistan, Egypt and countries further up the Nile. Iraq vs Turkey. I think there may be a war between Iraq and Turkey today, if Iraq was not flat on its back, because the Turks are holding water back. There’s no water in the Euphrates River this year.


remainder: http://www.democracynow.org/2010/7/8/gwynne_dyer_on_climate_wars_the

[Bitwit1234]

1. While when we had snowstorms in the NE

that were deeper than they normally are the right wing couldn't post about them fast enough. IN NOT ONE NEWSPAPER WHICH ARE ALL CONTROLLED BY THE REPUBLICAN CORPORATIONS, or on Fox has then been one word said about the heat wave and the fact that the first half of this year has had record breaking heat. Wonder why..

Where's loud mouthed Inohfe in his air conditioned apartment in DC.

[eppur_se_muova]

2. Wow, thanks for reminding me of Gwynne Dyer ...

I remember "War: A Commentary" from many years back. Wiki'd him to find out more. Looks like he's been banned from any and all Conrad Black papers -- a reminder that "the condemnation of some is as great a recommendation as the praise of others".

"War" was updated and republished in 2004.