http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=697121Download link at top. It's recently updated academic research on market efficiency and the NFL draft.
I've been sampling it for the past few days. Among their basic conclusions:
* The so-called value Chart, used for trade purposes, is flawed, too much of a premium to move up. Comical to read its origins, starting in Dallas and based on only a few years of drafts, never intended to be a specific guideline. It was lazily swooped up when Cowboys front office workers got jobs elsewhere in the league
* Trading down is wise, with best value late first and particularly early second round
* The top pick in the draft is actually the least desirable in the first round, from a cost/return standpoint
* Psychological-based evaluation that NFL teams are overconfident in their ratings due to soaking in so much information leading to the draft