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November 27
At Las Vegas (HBO): Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Michael Katsidis, 12 rounds, for Marquez's Ring/WBO/WBA lightweight title; Andre Berto vs. Freddy Hernandez, 12 rounds, for Berto's WBC welterweight title; Celestino Caballero vs. Jason Litzau, 10 rounds, junior lightweights.
At Oakland, Calif. (Showtime): Andre Ward vs. Sakio Bika, 12 rounds, for Ward's WBA super middleweight title.
At Helsinki, Finland (Showtime, same-day tape): Super Six World Boxing Classic, Group Stage 3, Carl Froch vs. Arthur Abraham, 12 rounds, for vacant WBC super middleweight title.
November has been an outstanding month in the sport of boxing. The Manny Pacquiao versus Antonio Margarito fighted pitted one of the sport's all-time greats against one of this era's toughest warriors. A week later, Sergio Martinez landed a single overhand left to Paul William's jaw, for what certainly will be 2010's “knockout of the year.” These fights were not only intense, in and of themselves, but they serve to create interest in the potential fights of both Pac Man and Martinez in 2011.
However, there are still some important fights left in the final five weeks of 2010, and several of them take place this coming weekend. Between HBO and Showtime, there are five good fights scheduled for Saturday, any one of which could actually serve as a “main event.” Let's take a look at each one of these bouts:
{1} Celestino Caballero, a WBA super bantamweight champion from Panama, is taking on tough Jason Litzau on the HBO undercard. Caballero, 34, is seven years older than Litzau. At 5' 11”, he is an inch taller, though Litzau's 73” wing-span gives him an inch in reach advantage. Caballero's record is 34 – 2, with 23 KO victories, and one KO loss; Litzau is 27-2, with 21 wins by KO, and both defeats by the same route.
Caballero started fighting top local fighters early in his career: two of his first opponents were undefeated (one at 25-0, the other at 28-0), He won a national title in his eighth fight. It was his first of four Latin titles. He has also held three world titles. His last loss was in May of 2004. A win over Litzau will put Caballero in place to earn bigger purses against the top men in the higher weight class.
Jason Litzau is an example of a teenager who suffered a violent childhood, who was on his way to becoming a hoodlum when he found the sport of boxing. He had 180 amateur bouts, including winning a national Silver Gloves championship, before turning professional. His style made him popular on television: although he has considerable classic boxing skills, once he gets hit hard, a sneer crosses his face, and he goes toe-to-toe. Although this tendency played a role in both of his loses (including to Robert Guerrero), Litzau also possesses considerable power, and flattens his share of opponents.
While Caballero is definitely favored going into this fight, Jason Litzau has the skills, the punching power, and the heart needed to pull off an upset. If he can control his temper, and fight in a discuplined manner, he can make this an interesting fight.
{2} Andre Berto, 27, is the WBC welterweight champion. He represented Haiti in the Olympics, before turning pro in the US. He has surprising hand speed, given his muscular 5' 8.5” frame. Berto also has punching power, as his 20 KO victories in his 26-0 record attests. His last four fights were against some solid fighters: Carlos Quintana, Juan Urango, Luis Collazo, and Steve Forbes. The fight against Collazo was not only close – many people believed Collazo won – but it exposed Berto's questionable chin.
On July 27, 2007, I saw Berto fight journeyman Cosme Rivera at Saratoga Springs. By the sixth round, Berto was getting winded. I said to my friend that Berto was going to get countered, as he had begun to throw his left wide; my friend said Rivera appeared to be measuring him for a right. Sure enough, seconds later, Rivera threw a right straight down the pike, and Berto went down hard. (The people sitting near my friend and I said, “You sure called that one!”) Andre was badly hurt, and while very few men get up after getting hit like that, he went on to win. And I've never seen him make that mistake again.
Hernandez, 31, is about two inches taller than Berto, and has a reach advantage. His record is 29-1, with 20 KO wins. He also has one “no contest,” from when an opponent opened a huge cut with an accidental head butt. His loss came in February, 2005, against Golden Johnson.
After winning his first 14 fights by knockout, Hernandez has had problems getting fights against top contenders. In February of this year, he knocked DeMarcus Corley out cold in devastating fashion on Showbox. He has definitely earned his shot at a title, although he doesn't have experience against the same level of opposition that Berto has.
Andre Berto is definitely the favorite in this fight. He is still hoping for a big fight against Shain Mosley (postponed earlier this year due to the earthquake in Haiti), and has even been mentioned as a possible opponent for Pacquiao. However, he can't afford to look past the untested Hernandez, who has one-punch knockout power.
{3} The legendary Mexican champion Juan Manuel Marquez is also considered as a possibility for Pacquiao's next opponent. The two have fought twice before: in May of 2004, they fought to a 12-round draw; and in March of 2008, Pacquiao won a controversial split-decision. Marquez, of course, wants that third fight.
However, he is 37 years old. His record is 51-5-1, with 37 wins by knockout. Two of his last three fights have been grueling: first, a TKO win in nine rounds over Juan Diaz, then the lose to Floyd Mayweather, Jr. Marquez has since decisioned Diaz in their rematch. He has also defeated top fighters such as Joel Casamayor, Rocky Juarez, and Marco Antonio Barrera.
Katsidis, 30, was born in Austrilia, and now resides in Thailand. He went 75-6 in the amateurs, and fought in the 2000 Olympics. He has a record of 27-2 in the professional ranks, with 22 KO wins. His lone knockout loss came in the tenth round against Joel Casamayor, in a fight in which he led on all three judge's cards.
Both fighters stand 5' 7” tall, and Marquez's 67” reach gives him an inch's advantage. Marquez is favored; however, at 37, he has to “get old” at some point. And Katsidis has extreme punching power. This should be an outstanding fight.
{4} Showtime's “Super Six” round-robin tournament continues with one of the most interesting matches, featuring Carl Froch and Arthur Abraham. Froch, 33, is not a typical British boxer. Standing 6' 1” with a 74.5” reach, with a 26-1 record that includes 20 knockouts, Froch is a throwback to the brawlers of olden days.
When he made his pro debut in 2002, his management was confident enough to put him in with a journey who had 64 bouts; his next three victims had 59, 37, and 77 fights. That advantage in experience was not enough to prepare them for the tremendous strength and unconventional style of Froch.
In September of 2007, Carl faced his first world-ranked opponent, Robin Reid, who was unable to continue after five rounds. Froch then beat two previously undefeated contenders, including current light heavyweight champion Jean Pascal (then 21-0). Froch challenged for the WBC super middleweight title in April of 2009. knocking out Jermain Taylor in the 12th round.
In the first round of the Super Six, Froch won a controversial split-decision over Andre Dirrell.The fight was held in England, and the referee allowed Froch to foul consistently, without consequence. I do not think Dirrell would have lost that fight in any other location; however, prize fighting is distinct from pillow fighting, and Dirrell should have responded to the rough tactics himself, rather than looking for help from his opponent's hometown official/fan.
In April, Froch fought twelve tough rounds against Mikkel Kessler. In a fight that could have gone to either man, he lost the decision. Froch continues to not only believe he won, but complains that he was robbed. In the run-up to this fight, he seems distracted by arguments with a rival promoter about the decision. That's a potential problem, as he is facing an opponent who requires his total focus.
Arthur Abraham, 30, was born in Armenia, and now lives in Germany. He stands 5' 10”, with a 72” reach. His record is 31-1, with 25 knockouts. His lone loss was by disqualification, in a fight he was at risk of being TKOed in (and he was so far behind on all three score cards, that he couldn't win by decision).
Abraham was a talented cyclist, who decided to box after seeing a film of one of Iron Mike Tyson's bouts. He won a couple of the “minor” boxing titles relatively early in his career. Although he appears slightly musclebound, Arthur has surprising hand speed. More, he is a highly intelligent boxer, who has adopted the defensive strategy of Winky Wright. This not only frustrates opponents, but it allows Abraham to study them closely, and then take advantage of openings. And the icing on the cake is that he has explosive, one-punch knockout power in both hands.
IBF middleweight champion Kingsley Ikeke mistook Abraham's August, '05 decision over veteran Howard Eastman as evidence of Arthur's limitations. Hence, Ikete defended his title against Abraham five months later. Ikete was devastated in five rounds.
The only difficulty Abraham experienced in his nine defenses, besides eventually making weight, came when tough Edison Miranda broke his jaw in their first fight. Abraham is a fairly “dirty” fighter, but few people do a fraction of the cheap tactics Miranda has mastered. Because referee Randy Newman preferred Abraham's dirty tactics over Miranda's, Arthur “won” a home-town robbery.
However, Abraham flattened Miranda in their return match, and made his move into the super middleweight division. In the first round of the “Super Six,” he scored an impressive 12th round knockout over Jermain Taylor. It was the type of fight that does long-term damage to a fighter, and luckily, Jermain listened to those closest to him, and retired.
In his next fight, Abraham was being easily out-boxed, the beaten up, by Andre Dirrell. In the 11th round, when Dirrell slipped, Abraham opted to land a crushing blow that seriously injured Andre. The effects of that cheap shot have forced Dirrell to drop out of the tournament.
Both Froch and Abraham are coming off their first loses. Both have a lot to prove, primarily to themselves. I expect a rough, foul-filled match. Carl does not have good defensive skills, in part because he has never had to rely on defense. He also makes many more mistakes in the ring than does Abraham. For these reasons, I tend to favor Arthur, although he faces a tough fight.
{5}Oakland, CA's Andre Ward, 26, is one of the most talented boxers of this era. In the amateurs, he won national titles in 2001 and '03, and then won the 2004 Olympics. He is 6' 1” tall, with a 73” reach. He is undefeated in 22 bouts, with 13 wins by knockout.
Many boxing “experts” thought that Andre was being moved along too slowly, and too safely, early in his career. He often appeared more interested in winning a comfortable decision, than in taking the risks necessary to win by knockout. I have always favored those who hit, but don't get hit. Also, I was impressed hearing him say that his goal was to become so good that he could force his opposition to do what he wanted them to do in the ring. My type of fighter!
Ward's first big test came in May last year, when he fought Edison Miranda. The hard-hitting Miranda had recently knocked another young prospect unconscious, and literally through the ring's ropes, in a televised bout. But Ward was able to win an impressive, one-sided 12 round decision.
Although Ward had won some minor titles (WBO, NABO, and NABF super middleweight), his first fight in the Super Six was for an actual world title. WBA champion Mikkel Kessler had only lost once in 43 bouts, in a tough fight with the great champion Joe Calzaghe. However, Ward overpowered the stunned Kessler, who had prepared to have to chase Ward. Ward won by technical decision in 11 rounds.
In his next fight, Ward easily overpowered Alan Green in 12. Again, Ward surprised his opponent by fighting in an aggressive style. Green found himself pinned on the ropes in almost every round.
Ward fights contender Sakio Bika, 31, from Australia. Bika is a half-inch shorter than Ward, and has a two-inch reach disadvantage. His record is 28-4-2, with 19 KO victories. One of his early loses came when he fought tough Sam Soliman early in his career; he later reversed that.
Bika, a 2000 Olympian, has won five minor titles. His biggest win was over Peter Manfredo, for the IBO super middleweight title. Yet he is probably better known for his three most recent defeats. Two of them came in challenges to two of the most outstanding champions of our times, Joe Calzaghe and Lucian Bute. Bika lost in twelve tough rounds in each of those fights.
In July, Bika faced undefeated Jean Paul Mendy. He appeared to be well on his way to an impressive first round knockout, flooring the seriously hurt opponent, when he pulled an Arthur Abraham, and landed a blantantly illegal blow on the defenseless Mendy. He was disqualified.
If not for the money that promoters make, both Abraham and Bika would be serving long suspensions from the sport. But, rules are not important when there is money to be made. On with the show!
This bout is not officially part of the Super Six. That creates a risk that Ward will not be entirely focused on the fight. And that would be dangerous. Still, Ward is definitely favored going into this fight.
Enjoy these fights!
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