[Boxing] Upcoming fights this weekend.

[dr.zoidberg]

This weekend looks to be stacked as HBO PPV and Showtime both are presenting cards this Saturday (Oct. 1).

First, we have Antonio Tarver/Roy Jones 3 on HBO PPV. I'm not a big fan of this fight because I feel that Roy should still be retired, not trying to prove something by beating Tarver. The last time we saw Jones, he was being KO'ed by Glen Johnson. In that fight, Roy was visibly slower and his reflexes were nowhere near his prime. The las time we saw Tarver fight, he controlled his rematch with Johnson, en route to a unanimous decision. I also liked that Tarver kept busy during the fight by throwing punches in bunches. Prediction-wise, I see no reason why Tarver cannot beat Jones again.
Does anyone know who is on the undercard?

The other card features James Toney/Dominick Guinn and Chris Byrd/DaVarryl Williamson for Byrd's IBF heavyweight title. I'm fully expecting Toney to defeat Guinn, based on the fact that Guinn has looked plain bad in several of his recent victories. The title fight to me is very hard to pick. Byrd is the most skilled boxer in the division, although recently it seem that age is catching up to him. Williamson, in what little I have seen of him, is said to have a good punch. With Byrd not being as elusive as he has in the past, Williamson may be able to catch Byrd. My pick is with Byrd to win by
UD12.

In closing, congratulations to Lamon Brewster for successfully defending his WBO Heavyweight title by defeating Luan Krasniqi by TKO9. It was a gutsy move for Brewster to take the fight in Germany on Max Schmeling's birthday.

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Here's a paragraph listing the televised undercard

Tampa, FL (September 19, 2005) -- The televised portion of the Tarver vs. Jones 3 undercard is now set. Undefeated Olympic Gold Medalist Andre Ward will battle Glenn LaPlante in a middleweight match-up, top ranked Almazbek “Kid Diamond” Raiymkulov takes on Nate Campbell in a ten-round lightweight match and in a clash of “Heavyweights Trading Bombs,” Vinny Maddalone and Brian Minto meet in a rematch nominated as fight-of-the-year.. Tarver vs. Jones 3, “No Excuses”, will be televised live on HBO Pay-Per-View from the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa, Fl., beginning at 9:00 PM ET/6:00 PM PT.

I'll be rooting for Roy, but I'll be very surprised if he beats Tarver. You highlighted the reasons. Especially the inactivity vs. Glen Johnson, who Jones should have matched up with much better than Tarver, stylewise. Roy will be motivated for this fight, but I doubt that will last once the realities of his dimiinshed skills and Tarver's physical attributes take over.

Thanks for mentioning Lamon Brewster. He's a great Democrat who supported John Kerry last year, even mentioning it in the ring.

[dr.zoidberg]

2. Undercard is total shit.

Sure, seeing Kid Diamond is nice, but Maddalone really isn't good at all. The funniest part was that at first, Maddalone was supposed to fight Shannon Briggs, but backed out because he knew that Briggs would beat him easily. They aren't even going to show the Rodney Jones fight. Fuckin' bastards, disrespecting a Louisiana boy like that(Rodney's hometown is Lafayette, Louisiana).

[Awsi Dooger]

3. If you're going to bet on Roy Jones

Seems to be the huge price on Roy winning by decision is the way to go. It's +3.60, or slightly more than 7/2. I've never seen anything feintly resembling that price for Jones to win at route. I don't see how he takes out Tarver. This gives me an excuse to mention In '87 I took a sensible flyer on Leonard to win by decision over Hagler at 7/1. Same basic idea; no logical projection he could knock out a blockhead like Hagler.

[H2O Man]

4. Two questions:

{1} If you were working with Jones, what would you think he needs to do to win?

{2} Same for Tarver?

I notice that many people (myself included) are focusing a lot of each of the two's weaknesses. Roy's reflexes, etc. This is very interesting to think about. I note that Roy has never kept his hands up, and is now the half-step slower where this is foolish. Can he change?

Tarver is at the edge of over-confident. His description of the punch that took Roy out has been tainted with mythology. Is he aware of that? Playing with Roy's mind, perhaps? Or kidding himself?

I favor Tarver, but there's a funny thing about great fighters like Roy: they are always dangerous.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. With Tarver it seems obvious

Go forward with energy and confidence and impose yourself from the outset. Take the press conference to the ring. Everyone's mindset, including Roy's, will be the last two fights and how he was basically trampled. You can't let Roy Jones settle down in the first couple of rounds and regain the type of confident superiority he carried throughout his career, standing in the center of the ring and picking spots to potshot a combination or a couple of straight right hands.

Tarver needs to study the first fight and emulate the rounds he was active. Jones against the ropes is ineffective and will probably no longer get the judges benefit of a doubt if he tries to forfeit huge chunks of a round then steal things in the final 30 seconds.

I agree about the weird mythological elevation of that basic combo that knocked out Jones. Tarver probably dreamed about doing that to Jones for 20+ years. It's like he's still dreaming whenever he describes it.

I don't know about strategy from Roy's standpoint. IMO he is basically dependent on Tarver fighting too much of a cerebral cautious fight, sort of like Hagler vs. Duran or Leonard. Not that I'm comparing Tarver to Hagler, mind you. That name seems to have come up too often in my last couple of posts.

Roy was always one of my favorite fighters but every instinct tells me he's gonna get thumped. The price on Tarver, slightly less than 1/2, looks more and more inviting. What's up with the full beard on Roy? It sort of reminds me of Foreman/Frazier II, when an aging Frazier suddenly showed up with a shaven head and was taken out fairly routinely in 4 or 5 rounds.

[H2O Man]

6. It's funny

in a sense, because both are natural counterpunchers. The "pre-show" I was watching earlier noted that, too, and showed highlights from their first fight, where they stood eyeing each other for long periods. So, while I fully agree that Tarver should move forward, I think that even if he stands in the middle of the ring, he's got the advantage. Almost like Bob Foster used to .... and, like you and Haglar, I'm not saying Tarver is in that class. But he has an advantage, and surely can whip punches hard against an in-coming target.

Now, Joe Frazier was a big supporter of the Hurricane back then. He and Ali got along as far as supporting Rubin. Joe was cool with that. And just like Marvin Gaye, some guys that hung out with Rubin started to copy that distinct hair style! I have a nice photo of Marvin Gaye singing in a San francisco fund-raiser, bald and in a sharp white suit, with two beautiful ladies. Now, Joe was no more successful at his singing group, "the Knockouts," as he was fighting George. But yes, I remember the shaved head in the second Foreman fight!

Talking to my son a few minutes ago, I said Roy knows he has to be either in very close, or far away. It's hard to be at arm's length. So he needs to be in-and-out, side-to-side, with his hands up. But Roy has never kept his hands up, and I am afraid he is going to have trouble with that now. He'd have to be consciously thinking about it, and as soon as you think, you're done.

[H2O Man]

7. HBO films ....

Watching the first Jones-Tarver fight again was fun. Jones won it clearly. I actually scored it identical to Harold Lederman, 8 to 4. Tarver took rounds 1,2, 8 and 10. Jones won fair and square, and though he rarely landed more than one at a time, his body attack kept Tarver from pressing.

Jones did tire easily. Firing punches up, rather than at shoulder heighth, was one reason.The worst thing fo Jones is that he develops a total distain for Tarver's punching power.

In the second fight, Roy takes the first round, though he is unabled to land combinations. McGirt, for reasons unknown, tells Tarver to stay low. Odd. Roy takes the first minute and 25 seconds of round two. Then Tarver presses forward.

[H2O Man]

8. Showtime fights .....

James Toney remains a favorite, although I expect some heavyweight to realize that his weaknesses can be exploited by an average top ten heavyweight. Call his bluff, in the middle of the ring. If the guy wants to lay on the ropes, all you need to do is hit him a couple shots and move away. Win rounds, make him fight.

I think Chris Byrd is never going to get his due. But he's past due now. Some big heavyweight is going to hurt him. He's a classy man, and has done well in the days where the division could be divided: 200-220 lbs, and 221 and up, for example. A 208 lber shouldn't fight a guy 250 lbs.

Toney and Byrd, if they win, should fight. There was a time when Jones-Byrd would have been fascinating.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. That's exactly the way I scored both fights

8-4 Jones in the first bout and Jones taking the first 4 and a half minutes of the second. I don't remember the round breakdown of the first fight but it was probably identical to the way you scored it.

The night Jones beat Tarver, I was listening to ESPN radio and everyone was screaming that Tarver won. I damn near drove off the road. Even Bert Sugar was whailing on and on that Jones probably deserved to lose but in any event he severely damaged his reputation. I thought I must have viewed a different fight than they did, one of those Star Trek parallel universe versions.

Thank you for confirming what I thought I saw. Still baffling to me Jones took a rematch. No matter how the media portrayed it or what Tarver said, Jones should have known he was somewhat fortunate in the first fight and Tarver had some physical advantages over him, or at least strengths that neutralize many of Roy's best assets.

Regardless of how that first fight looked, you have to significantly facture in the subsequent losses to Johnson and Tarver, especially the way they happened and what they likely project to the future. I'm still picking Tarver.

[H2O Man]

10. Yep.

Tarver is getting better, while Roy has declined. The physical differences, with Roy having to punch up, and his difficulty in landing more than one at a time, really stand out.

However, a good cornerman will tell him to throw the right at Tarver's upper chest, not his head. If he does that, it lands, and the following punches become more effective. It isn't impossible for Roy to win some rounds. The chance of winning 7, and not getting stopped, isn't that good. But their series is hardly a one-sided thing. The HBO guys were scoring the rounds in a way that had Roy winning, but other than Harold, they acted like Tarver was robbed after the first one. That type of thinking could influence judging should this fight go the distance.

[H2O Man]

11. Tarver W12

Byrd and Toney win decisions, too.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. About what I expected

I just got back from watching the fight in a sportsbook. The casual fans were miffed at Jones not being more active, and the cutesy showboating, but that was very predictable given his age, loss of speed, nature of his last two fights and Tarver's physical edges.

I made a small bet on Tarver at the last minute. Just couldn't get myself to wager big against a fighter as talented as Jones, someone who I won a ton of bets on during his career. I knew it was window dressing when he looked so ripped in the weigh-in. That doesn't mean anything when your reflexes are not what they were. The keys were what you emphasized; speed fighters decline sooner than punchers, and Jones can no longer put multiple punches together.

In a way, it was worse witnessing Roy Jones losing one round after another than getting knocked out. I hope he gives it up. No sense in fighting a lesser guy just to say you went out with a victory. He can't beat the top fighters anymore.

[H2O Man]

13. Well said.

No one wants to see Roy struggle to be a top contender. He needs to realize that part of his life is over. He is an intelligent, capable man. He needs to enjoy his life.

Coming in "ripped" indicated to me that he was trained wrong. The casual sports fan might not get it, but that isn't what made Roy great.He was the definition of smooth in his day.

I liked Tarver's comment to the ESPN reporter about the showboating: "You play football, you play basketball, but you don't play boxing."

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Tarver might make a great boxing analyst

He's got an upbeat personaility and engaging smile. Plus the ability to come up with memorable one liners or summations. After he beat Roy in May 2004, Tarver even said something clever in regard to betting on Smarty Jones, not Roy Jones.

I didn't get to see the post fight interviews. The darn sportsbook turned off the fight after the decision to turn on the UCLA/Washington game.

Now I'm reading on the internet Roy just doesn't get it. He wants another fight with Tarver, and/or one with Glen Johnson. You would think the punchstats would provide a hint. To throw 320 punches to 620 is abysmal, especially since Tarver isn't the most active puncher.

Absolutely right that the ripped physique indicated Roy trained wrong. I thought the same thing yesterday. Roy always had a great physique with the chiseled stomach. Plus the very well defined neck and upper back. But those features had declined noticeably in recent years, which was only natural given advancing age. Then yesterday I was stunned when he looked almost like he did when he was 28, and he was flexing for the cameras.

Not to the same degree, obviously, but it reminded me of Ali before the masochistic Holmes fight, when he took some type of supplement during training and came in looking trim and younger than he had in years. But his energy and reflexes were shot and he couldn't even throw a punch. More than a year later, Ali was in much worse shape against Trevor Berbick, but at least he had some energy and got involved.