Kentucky Derby Trail: Rebel Rouser

[two gun sid]

From The Bloodhorse:
This year's road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) has only a few more doors left to pass through. But the scene so far at each one has resembled a slapstick comedy routine where everyone tries to go through a door at the same time, and no one gets through.

Not only were the favorites in Saturday's grade II San Felipe and grade III Gotham and Tampa Bay Derby all defeated, but other than Lawyer Ron's almost freaky performance in the Rebel as favorite, there were no real standout efforts, and we came away with more questions than we had going in.

It is just as important to eliminate horses from the Derby trail each week as it is to discover new stars and confirm the status of the current ones. For the most part, we did none of those on Saturday unless you're willing to look beneath the surface a bit. There you will find enough promising efforts to suggest that stardom could very well be awaiting several of Saturday's runners over the next month and a half.

Rather than simply go over each race, we've reached a point where it's best to concentrate on the horses, regardless of where they ran, and try to assess the current Derby picture and who and what to watch for in the final preps.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32656

[aaronbees]

1. Lawyer Ron...

looked terrific in his race; he's got a great kick. Otherwise the picture seems just as cloudy as before.

I'm pretty intrigued with Discreet Cat, who won over in Dubai this weekend; there's a chance he may go to the Blue Grass.

I'll be going to Hot Springs for the Arkansas Derby ... can't wait!

[two gun sid]

3. I'm leaning toward Lawyer Ron also....

but, I'm looking forward to this weekends races to help me clear up the picture, hopefully.

[aaronbees]

5. Hopefully, we'll see if Barbaro is...

the real deal on a fast track.

Turns out Discreet Cat is sticking overseas for a bit (wrong on the Blue Grass chances, I was) and may not come over for the Derby. Some info. in this article: http://sport.scotsman.com/racing.cfm?id=475472006. He may run in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness w/out a prep, in other words.

[two gun sid]

7. Does Barbaro have PP #10?...

I thought I read that somewhere.

[MsUSA]

2. Gonna be any Wayne Lucas entries in the derby???

He taught english at one of our high schools. Am always interested in his horses.

[two gun sid]

4. It's too early to say...

but, Lucas always seems to get a horse in the Derby.

[aaronbees]

6. His colt, Special Interest...

just ran second in the Rushaway last weekend; not sure he'll make the Derby though.

What was he like as an English teacher? Curious! :)

[Justpat]

9. He hasn't had an outstanding horse

on the Derby Trail this year.

He also moved all his horses out of NY. He is stabling at Churchill. He used to have major stables at just about
every track but his pulled everything out of NY this week.

[Justpat]

8. Barbaro won from the 10 hole today in FL Derby.

He was pretty game. Sharp Humor didn't give an inch the whole way down the stretch. I think it was the first time
Barbaro raced on a dry dirt track. I thought he was pretty impressive.

Sharp Humor was game as hell also.

[two gun sid]

10. I think I was more impressed with Sharp Humor...

and his mental toughness in the stretch than I was with Barbaro. Although, Barbaro is still perfect and I can't knock him. I wonder what kind of pressure this young trainer is going to be under, taking a undefeated horse to The Derby. I still haven't heard how Barbaro came out of the race.

Hi, OB. How's everything going with you?

[Justpat]

14. Sid, here is a pic of this years foal.

This was taken at one day old. He weighed 130lbs at birth.
He's a pretty nice foal. I named him Stagger Lee.




I hope this works.

[two gun sid]

15. WOW! He's a flashy lookin' dude!

I'm excited for you. Very nice looking colt, OB. Keep us updated on Stagger Lee.

Our first foal is due in 5 days.

[aaronbees]

16. Love his blaze!

:)

[Justpat]

17. Thanks, guys.

I like this foal a lot, too.

This little mare of mine seems to do better and better every year.

This foal is by Marquetry.

[bread_and_roses]

46. I think he's beautiful! And thanks for reports downthread. (n/t)

[aaronbees]

12. Well he's in my top three now...

Glad Barbaro had a tougher race of it; if he comes out okay and in shape, could be a good thing come Derby day to get that experience.

[two gun sid]

11. Kentucky Derby Trail: Dubai Do or Don't?

From The Bloodhorse:
Perhaps it is time to stop poring over every bit of minutia concerning this year's Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) and just go with the flow. If you don't, your brain will be fried by the time the Twin Spires come into view and the scent of roses is in the air.

So why then are my eyes still getting buggy studying past performances and watching race replays ad nauseam? Why am I searching under every rock, hoping there's a Derby horse under one of them? Because, like so many others, I am stricken with Derby fever; so much so that I even watched the replay of the Lane's End Stakes (gr. II) several times.

The best thing to say about this past weekend is that the jabbing finally is over. It's time to deliver a power punch or get out of the ring. It doesn't have to be a knockout punch, just some display of strength. The big wallop has to come on May 6. What is unfortunate about this year's Derby trail is that most of the truly exciting athletes seen so far are inexperienced, and would have to be rushed into the Derby with little seasoning and without being battle-tested.

How's that for a segue to Discreet Cat? Saturday's dynamic UAE Derby (UAE-I) winner joins other budding stars, such as Strong Contender, Showing Up, and Bernardini, who are destined for stardom, but fighting an uphill battle as far as making the Derby. Discreet Cat has made only three starts, while the others have made only two. Of these, only Bernardini definitely is looking beyond the roses, although the latest word from Godolphin is that Discreet Cat is only a possibility for the Derby, and may wait for the Preakness (gr. I). The colt is a May 1 foal, and Godolphin does not want to push him.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32754

[Justpat]

13. Barclay Tagg's horse is pretty impressive.

But he only has three races under his belt, I believe.

[aaronbees]

18. Haskin's Weekend Preview...

Haskin's Weekend Preview: Watch Out for Three Live Ones
by Steve Haskin
Date Posted: 4/6/2006 4:01:33 PM
Last Updated: 4/6/2006 4:57:26 PM

Sure, Brother Derek should win the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). Yes, you can pick out of a hat in the suddenly depleted Wood Memorial (gr. I), And, of course, Cause to Believe and Sweetnorthernsaint look to be the standouts in the Illinois Derby (gr. II). But it's what comes out of these races that will prove to be more important.
There are several horses running over the weekend that can emerge as serious Derby horses with a second or even third-place finish. And some of those are more than capable of pulling off an upset and going to Louisville as one of favorites for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) presented by Yum! Brands.

Of all the horses running this weekend, the three that could be sitting on a breakout race at a big price are Racketeer and My Golden Song in the Illinois Derby and late addition Jazil in the Wood Memorial, which lost two of its prominent pace horses in Like Now and Showing Up.

Of the three races, it is the Illinois Derby that actually appears to be the most intriguing. Cause to Believe has always been a big favorite here because of his honesty, consistency, and versatility, and a victory would send him to Churchill with impeccable credentials. The same can be said about Sweetnorthernsaint, the rags-to-riches horse who once again will have to overcome the 10 post.

** snip **

Link for more and source: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32907

My picks for the big three races: Point Determined, Bob and John, Sweetnorthernsaint.

But I think Bro Derek is still my Derby horse.

[Justpat]

19. I'll be at Aqueduct later this afternoon

so I'll give a report about the Wood when I get home.

[Justpat]

20. typical racetracker.

I never know what day it is. I thought today was Sat.

I'll give my Wood report TOMORROW.

[two gun sid]

21. LOL. There are never enough days in the week...

for horse people. Looking forward to your Wood Report.

[two gun sid]

22. Kentucky Derby Trail: Five Weeks or Bust

From The Bloodhorse:
Fresh is best. Those are the words Barbaro's trainer Michael Matz is living by. Whether he's right or wrong, you have to admire him for going against history and public opinion and sticking to his guns, much like another former equestrian rider, Tim Ritchey, did last with his unorthodox training of Afleet Alex.

Matz had to be thrilled with Barbaro's performance and the way the race played out. If you're going to send a horse into the fire on the first Saturday in May off a five-week layoff, and one race in 13 weeks, you couldn't have scripted the Florida Derby (gr. I) any better. Barbaro, who had only three grass races and one race in the slop under him, needed to be toughened over a fast track, and his battle with a tenacious Sharp Humor provided him with that toughness.

Whether it will be enough to help him withstand what promises to be a contentious pace in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), we obviously won't know until May 6. But the bottom line is that Barbaro has shown he can win on any kind of surface, and in a year like this, there is something to be said for having an undefeated horse. And he did break awkwardly from a bad post when his hind end gave out and he ducked to the inside slamming hard against Charming Image. But he still managed to get a good position going into the first turn. Also, for all those who like to compare times, he did run 10 one-hundredths faster than Bandini in the Skip Away Handicap (gr. III) the race before.

Barbaro, it must be pointed out, has a similar running style to a number of Derby contenders. The son of Dynaformer, as he showed once again in the Florida Derby, likes to stalk in second, but he, like many of the others, could be forced to alter their running style in a 20-horse field. And that is where the ability to adapt plays an important role.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32865


Barbaro made reservations for May 6
with impressive Florida win.

[Justpat]

23. Too Much Bling wins the Bay Shore in a canter.

Songster a distant second. One Way Flight third.

From the 3/16 pole to the wire it was a parade with Too Much Bling in the lead. The others were strung out
far behind. The track is terrible.

[aaronbees]

24. Bling looked great....

Not sure how Bob and John will handle this soup track. Keyed Entry may get up for it. Nearly post time!

[two gun sid]

25. Missed the race. I just got home...

how's Bailey doing on commentary? Track looks sloppy.

[aaronbees]

26. I like his commentary...

he made a great point about Gomez laying just off the pace with Bling and giving a patient ride.

[two gun sid]

27. What little I've heard from him so far...

has been great. Talking about Prado and controlling the pace in The Wood.

[Justpat]

28. Big day for Baffert.

Bob and John wins Wood Memorial by a length from fast closing Jazil.

Keyed Entry fought with Bob and John all through the stretch but tired
in the last sixteenth. It looked like Prado had settled for second
and was surprised to see Jazil rolling by on his outside in the last
few jumps. The rest of the field was nowhere.

They ran in 1:51.3 which is what a maiden race ran in earlier on the card.
The track is a mess so you have to take that into consideration, but it
was not good time on any track for Grade 1 horses.

[aaronbees]

30. That is slow...

Good win for Bob and John but he strikes me as a bit of a one-pace horse; he broke wonderfully, though. He's still young. Jazil made a huge move! As tough as he was, I'm not sure Keyed Entry wants another 1/8 mile.

Next up: SA and Illinois Derbies.

[Justpat]

31. Yeah, Jazil looks like he could really sail that extra

eighth of the derby. He passed B&J a half step past the wire and kept on going. He galloped out good.

[two gun sid]

29. Illinois Derby post time in 8 min...

I usually go to this race.

[two gun sid]

32. Sweetnorthernsaint smokes the field...

drew off by about 7.
1/4 23.52
1/2 48.06
3/4 1.13.10
1 1.37.74
fin 1.49.89

[aaronbees]

34. Very impressive

I'm two-for-two! (But hope I'm wrong about my third pick for the day.) Sweetnorthernsaint's move was great ... shades of War Emblem?

[two gun sid]

35. I liked this race better than War Emblem's race...

War Emblem was able to get an uncontested lead and controlled the whole race. If War Emblem didn't get the lead he sulked and threw in the towel. I thought Sweetnorthernsaint showed a lot more heart today.

[Justpat]

42. And War Emblem had ability but not a lot of class.

He needed an uncontested lead to win. If he was seriously hooked - he was cooked.

[aaronbees]

44. Gary Stevens said something interesting

That Hawthorne's a good prep course for the Derby with its tight turns and long stretch.

[Justpat]

33. Grade I Carter handicap

Bishop Court Hill first by a neck.
Sir Greeley second by what looked like another neck to me.
Big Apple Daddy third by another neck.

Seven furlongs in 1:23.2

The three year olds went faster in the Bay Shore.

The winner is trained by Todd Pletcher.

[two gun sid]

36. Is the track getting better or worse?

[Justpat]

37. It was basically about the same since the 4th.

[Justpat]

38. Brother Derek wins SA Derby.

I am not easily impressed, but that horse moves like a well oiled machine.
He won easily. I hope he can get that extra eighth of the Derby. He
is great to watch.

[two gun sid]

39. That is some kinda racehorse...

shit, Brother Derek is my Derby horse. He is impressive. Wow.

[aaronbees]

40. His kick in the stretch just rocked!

He's IT.

So happy for Solis and Hendricks! So deserving after all the trouble they've seen. :)

[Justpat]

41. I'll do some pedigree research and see what it looks like.

I'll be interested to see what it looks like.

The way he moves though, it looks like he could go all day.

I was really impressed.

[aaronbees]

43. I don't know a whole lot about pedigree but ...

here it is: http://www.pedigreequery.com/brother+derek.

I agree with you -- visually he looked like he could go and go. He can win off the pace but you never know how things will turn out in the Kentucky Derby, too, with all that traffic. Looks like some fast horses are going to make that trip, too.

[Awsi Dooger]

47. He's a Dual Qualifier

Dosage under 4.00 and within 10 pounds of the top rated 2 year old. That system used to be absolute gold but has really fallen out of favor, with no recent wins.

Brother Derek has a dosage index of 2.33 and center of distribution at 0.73. I remember he came in 4th in the Juvenile then won a race in California later as a two year old, so that placed him near the top of the experimental chart.

Incredibly impressive today, but I'm still somewhat wary of a horse than didn't show extreme brilliance as a 2 year old. You didn't see Secretariat, Slew or Affirmed, nor Spectacular Bid, running 8.5 lengths behind in the biggest race of their 2 year old campaign.

[aaronbees]

45. He came home in...

36 4/5 for the last three furlongs. Nice.

[two gun sid]

48. Video links for the Wood Memorial and SADerby

Wood Memorial
http://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/video.asp?track=A#

Santa Anita Derby
http://www.calracing.com/index.php
(You must register, but, it's free.)


Oh, even though it has nothing to do with the TC, Spun Sugar won the Apple Blossom yesterday. As I've said before, I'm her biggest fan.

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32952


Mike Luzzi rides Spun Sugar to sweet win
in Saturday's Apple Blossom.