Over/under for Super Bowl is currently 49--- I don't see it.

[trumad]

First off... The Bears D will keep Manning on the run most of the game....

Second: I expect that the Colts D will stack the line and dare the Bears to throw.

I pick 40 as the under/over ....

thoughts?

[Poiuyt]

1. I never could understand sports gambling lines

But I think the Colts will win.

[underpants]

2. Thoughts? I THOUGHT the Pats were going to win it all

Now where did I hear that :think:

[trumad]

4. underpants

How ya been... It's alway nice to hear from an old DUer no matter the snark. ;-)

[nickgutierrez]

3. I think the only way it'll get that high...

...is if one team rolls the other one.

I don't see a close game getting to 49 points, but I could see either team putting up some kind of 38 or 41-17 beatdown.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. The total is always set artificially high for the Super Bowl

Very basic reason: it's the only game of the year in which the majority of the money is bet by occasional or novice bettors.

The oddsmakers understand that and take it into account. That type of bettor literally bets the over more than 80% of the time, when they mess with the total. They want to root for points and not the clock.

Over/under wagering is like that in general. The professional bettors overwhelmingly prefer the under while casual fans take the over. When I worked as a supervisor I would generally shade the opening number somewhat low to thwart the wise guy bettors who could do better elsewhere, then allow the public to take the over with a steady flow of $20 bets. By gametime the sportsbook invariably needed the under, which is exactly where I wanted it.

The other annual trend in Super Bowl betting is the money line, or odds to win straight up, is set absurdly low. The bettors who prefer the underdog want them to win outright and they'll bet it that way, regardless of value. That leads to bizarre money lines, sometimes half what it would be in the regular season. Again, the oddsmakers learned this a long time ago so they set the Super Bowl money line unusually low. This year the Colts are -250 and the Bears +210. In the regular season it would be more like -340 and +280 for a 7 point favorite. Bears bettors are getting ripped off by the +210 but that won't stop them from taking it, or taking +180 or less close to gametime. I see that every year.

I agree the 49 is too high but strange things happen in the Super Bowl, especially the second half.

[jcrew2001]

6. low scoring

I too predict a low scoring game. I still think Payton will succumb to the pressure of the big game and good defense, and the Bears are good enough to stop payton.

Even if the colts are favored, I would not be surprised if the Bears win this game, but a very close game.

The Ravens faced a bad Giants team, but the colts are quite good, so we'll see.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Can you imagine the bitching by bettors who took the over?

The Colts passed up a short FG that would have put it on 49. The total went down to 47.5 so that decision changed the result of the total.

Then the Bears basically didn't even try for the backdoor TD that also could have put the game over.

[trumad]

8. It played out like I thought....

although the score was closer than it should have been.