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After a rather uneventful 1st weekend of play, we're on to the marquee matchups of the NCAA tournament. Frankly, there was a level of disappointment with the 1st four days. There were a few good OT games on Saturday, but the rest of the weekend went pretty much as expected.
1st, we'll start with the South Bracket, which takes place 3/24 and 3/26 in San Antonio, TX.
The 7:27 game on Thursday mirrors the bracket I created at the beginning, with #2 Memphis taking on #3 Texas A&M. Memphis went 15-0 in the weak Conference USA, so I discounted them as a major player. I still think that Texas A&M is the superior team. In addition, Texas A&M is playing very close to their home court. The Aggies have been the pick of most to make the Elite 8 round. I'll stick with my original pick of Texas A&M in a close game.
The late game on Thursday features #1 Ohio State vs. #5 Tennessee. Originally, I picked Tennessee due to my allegiance to the SEC (being a Florida fan). However, after watching their first 2 games in the tournament, I'm actually convinced that they can pull off the upset. Listening to the radio today, most people thought that OSU would win in a blowout. But I watched the 1st two games that Tennessee played against Long Beach State and Virginia, and now I think they have a chance. They played Ohio State to a near standstill last November in Columbus. I think they've improved a lot as a team since then. I'm still picking Tennessee, providing that Chris Lofton has a better outside shooting day then he had against Virginia.
In the Elite 8 Round, I pick Texas A&M to play against Tennessee. I like UT a lot, as I said in my last paragraph, but the home court disadvantage will do them in. Since the beginning of the year, I've liked Texas A&M. Not because of the fact that they're one of the most conservative schools in the U.S. (and Robert Gates was their president), but because of the PG play of Acie Law IV. I have to stick with my original pick of Texas A&M to make the Final 4. If not, my bracket will be shot.
Now, onto the West bracket, which will be played in San Jose, California on 3/24 and 3/26. The early game is #4 Southern Illinois vs. #1 Kansas. I haven't watched much of either team this season. But the conventional wisdom is that Kansas moves on past the less talented Salukis. I'll stick with my original pick of the Jayhawks.
The nightcap is #2 UCLA facing #3 Pittsburgh. Obviously, UCLA has an advantage in that they play this round in California. I've never been sold on Pitt. I had them losing in Round 2 against Duke. But since Duke lost, they were able to get by VCU. I've never trusted this squad in March Madness. Their premiere center, Aaron Gray, never comes up big in big games. He was nearly non-existent in the Big East Tournament Final against Georgetown. I see this being a very ugly game, similar to last year's Regional Final between UCLA and Memphis, in which each team scored in the 40's.
In the Regional Final, I actually picked UCLA to make a return to the Final Four. I almost consider UCLA a #1 seed in this tourney. They would have been the #1 overall, unless they lost late at Washington and California in the PAC-10 tourney. Still, they are a very talented and experienced team. Arron Afflalo is one of the better scorers in the nation. But the main reason I picked UCLA is the fact that I didn't want to pick too many #1 seeds to make the Final 4. Rarely do all the 1's make the Final 4. Last year, all four 1's (Duke, UCONN, Villanova, and Memphis) made the Sweet 16, but none made the National Semifinal Round.
Next is the East Bracket, taking place at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
I'll admit, I originally had Texas and Kevin Durant making the Elite 8 Round of the tourney. Of course, USC demolished Texas and they will be facing UNC on 3/23. This will be one of two big tests for the PAC-10 in the Sweet 16 Round. I do like UCLA easily advancing in their Regional Semifinal matchup. But USC has a much harder draw against North Carolina. I've watched a ton of North Carolina during the regular season. For the most part, their depth has thoroughly impressed me. They go 12 deep (with Rayshawn Terry, Brandan Wright, Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Quentin Thomas, Wes Miller, Alex Stepheson, Deon Thompson, Ginyard, Danny Green, and Bobby Frasor). And most of those twelve are big-time scholarship players. I'm not sure how USC can counteract UNC's depth and overall superior skill. I thought that Kevin Durant could do it on his own, but since he's out, I like Carolina.
In the other game, #6 Vanderbilt takes on #2 Georgetown. While I like my SEC teams, I'm not sure how SEC Player of the Year Byars can overcome the overall talent of Georgetown. G'Town was the only team to give Florida much of a challenge last season. G'Town has too much size up front with Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert. Their backcourt has been gelling as the season goes on. This might be one blowout of the Sweet 16 Round.
I've liked Georgetown to make the Final 4 for some time now. I still like them over UNC. Georgetown has the skill players to make up for the depth of UNC's long roster. I originally picked Georgetown to make it to the Final 4, so I'm sticking with that prediction.
Finally, there's the Midwest Round. Obviously, I like #1 Florida to destroy #5 Butler in the Semifinal. I still remember Butler's near shock of UF many years ago, in the year when UF met Michigan State in the National Championship. Florida has the talent and experience to put their game in drive when it counts.
#3 Oregon faces #7 UNLV in the other semifinal. Oregon should be the 2nd PAC10 team to make the Elite 8. I wasn't that impressed with UNLV when I saw them against Georgia Tech in the 1st Round. They can go shot dead in games, like when Kruger went 0-8 against GT. Oregon has been the better team all season.
Florida is the team to beat in the tourney. They are clearly the best and most experienced team. They've drawn a pretty good draw, avoiding the #2 seed Wisconsin, and have a good chance of facing #7 UNLV. Personally, I'd like to see UF face UNLV coach Lon Kruger, who coached the 1994 Final Four Gator team.
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