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Michigan was superior to Florida this season. Only irrelevant crappiola called regular season results suggested otherwise. But give me preseason ratings every time. They invariably trump subjective garbage in bowl games.
It still cracks me up when posters on one board after another insist on denouncing preseason ratings. Those ratings just paid for another vacation for me. And then some. The higher rated underdog system from The Sporting News preseason magazine went 7-1 ATS. Michigan was #3 to #5 for the gallant Gators. I know I mentioned that angle in some recent thread on this forum, including the specific games. I've posted about it for years. It's my own homemade angle, discovered about a decade ago.
Only ATS loser was Wisconsin, by a point and a half. Outright so-called upsets on Auburn, Michigan and tonight on West Virginia. UCLA blew an outright upset at +7 by missing a chippie FG as time expired, and I'm very confident FSU with a reasonable roster would have dismissed Kentucky.
Do you realize how unlikely/damn near impossible it is to isolate 8 games, win 7 of the bets and lose the other by 1.5 points? No way I could do that subjectively. It shouts at the power of preseason ratings. Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. You can't win by simpleton subjective reliance on recency. The damn oddsmaker knows all about recency. If you know the same thing he knows, you know nothing, to borrow a '60s TV term.
Seriously, how was West Virginia over Oklahoma ever considered an upset? I can understand the lunacy that made Florida a double digit chalk over an underachieving then injured Michigan team, but at what point in the season was Oklahoma EVER superior to West Virginia? That one will baffle me for years. I'm amazed they were favored at all, let alone more than a TD.
The Sporting News preseason numbers had West Virginia #4 and Oklahoma #13.
Oklahoma's defense is always overstated. That's the bottom line. They never have stats of a top defense, particularly in pass defense, or even subjectively look like a staunch D.
USC was TSN #1. Michigan was #3. West Virginia was #4. Detect a trend? All dominated their bowls and exceeded expectations by big margin.
LSU was #2. That makes me more than a bit concerned about my +6.5 on preseason #17 Ohio State. But the YPPA Differential numbers favor the Buckeyes. For some reason the preseason numbers are not as automatically decisive ATS when the higher rated team is the favorite.
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