Among trainers, Big Brown's jockey gets blame

[MrCoffee]

When Big Brown emerged unscathed from his inexplicable fiasco in the Belmont Stakes, the post-mortem focus suddenly swung hard and sharp on the equally inexplicable ride from jockey Kent Desormeaux. Along the Belmont backstretch yesterday, Kent was the fall guy. Not without some reason.

One of the top trainers in the business said: "Desormeaux screwed up. He should have let him run, just as he did in the Florida Derby, instead of fighting him.

"He should never have eased the horse, either. Did you see the stretch run? Big Brown was still fighting for his head. I think Desormeaux panicked."

http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/8225186/Among-trainers,-Big-Brown's-jockey-gets-blame

[two gun sid]

1. That "trainer" should have allowed his name to be used...

in the article. Lot's of baloney in this piece of journalism, too. Something that jumped out at me was the statement that the public lost $15M wagering on Big Brown. They failed to mention that the public also won $15M betting against Big Brown. That's how the Parimutuel system works. They make it sound like it was some kind of betting coup and the fans were ripped off by the industry.

IMHO Big Brown got beat. That's all there was to it.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. My dad thinks everyone loses

I guess that's more typical than I imagine. I was trying to tell him Saturday night that the distribution was tilted, with a small group of people winning larger amounts on Da Tara. Meanwhile if Big Brown prevails, everyone cashes quarters. But he doesn't get it. Like in sports wagering he insists a push is a loss, and that the house needs only about 35% to break even in straight bets.

Kent should have settled on the rail while the pace slowed ahead of him. That was my impression at the time. He was so programmed to park 3 wide he took too many anxious twists and turns to get there, at the expense of Big Brown's relaxed demeanor.

Amazing how my impression of the race flopped within 3 strides. After the '98 example on Real Quiet, I knew Kent would be extraordinarily patient on Saturday, particularly without a dangerous closer in the race. He was biding his time on the backstretch and suddenly the trail pack moved toward the leaders, without threat of response from Big Brown. In three jumps I went from "he's waiting to pounce" to "he's got no chance."

After taking a few days away from the race then watching it again tonight, I realized I undervalued Da Tara's performance. I summed it as garbage a few days ago. Wrong. He was allowed a tranquil lead without seeing another horse and settled into moderate consistent fractions. That's a blueprint for racing over your head. And he managed, exploding nicely into the stretch. The final quarter was weak but he weaved, and may have had plenty left if challenged. I hardly think it's representative of Da Tara's true level but you have to credit him.

Also, Goverson Paterson made an excellent impression in the winner's circle, with a personal touch and sports knowledge and warmth.

[northernsoul]

6. My Place wager on Denis of Cork treate me quite nicely, thanks very much.

People who wagered on less than even odds were fools to do so anyway. What is the sense in risking a dollar to make a quarter. It seems like a pretty basic principle to me that the potential upside has to outweigh the potential downside, whether you're betting a horse or starting a business or taking any other chance in life.

[two gun sid]

8. Good point and I'm glad you were able to boost your bankroll.

The race time favorite wins 33% of the time. You need to wager to Win on horses that are 3-1 or better to stay even excluding takeout and breakage. If you keep an eye on the Place and Show pool totals it can sometimes work in your favor.

I hope you'll hang out on DU with us next Saturday when Horse of the Year Curlin takes on a pretty excellent field in the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill. Curlin's giving 8lbs.

[aaronbees]

2. What a load of crap

Big Brown was nowhere near finishing in the money on Sunday. He was done after a mile and was losing massive amounts of ground on the final turn, and that was clear before Desormeaux eased him. Did Kent give him the perfect ride? Maybe not, but given Big Brown broke awkwardly and was beaten to the punch fair and square by Da'Tara and was then boxed in on the rail (an unfamiliar, unfavored place to be - and there was a smart bit of race riding from the other jocks going on there, as there was on the backside with Tale of Ekati keeping BB wide) I'm not sure what else Kent could've done to get good positioning. For the first time, BB was rank. But wisely, he was eased on out soon and appeared well in hand on the backstretch, positioned in a good spot, albeit wide. Maybe Kent could have bided his time trying to hold BB behind Da'Tara on that first turn rather than ease him out, but given the rankness and being down on the rail would BB have relaxed any more? Doubtful to my eyes. And when Kent asked for the extra gears we've all seen Big Brown use, there was nothing there - and that was after a sensible pace that enabled Da'Tara to steal the race on a speed favoring track. Clearly Big Brown was not right for the race. He was short. And no amount of riding tactics would've overcome that.

Now on to Big Brown being eased. Did anyone hear Durkin say BB was "plummeting"? I sure as hell did and that's exactly what BB was doing right before being eased. He was being inhaled by the next run of horses taking aim for Da'Tara; among others, Denis of Cork (who ran about the same line BB did on the backstretch) just waltzed on by him. If I'm a jock making a split-second decision on a $50 million colt and everything about the ride tells me the way he's running is completely unlike the horse's regular condition, I may worry and ease him up too. Especially after the spectacle of Eight Belles, I'll gladly take that over working him and whipping him to get fifth. And that's true even if Kent didn't detect unsoundness, since his words to that effect are getting so much criticism. Going unsound isn't the only thing that can go wrong and compromise a horse's health in the stretch. How about heatstroke? How about something going wrong with the hoof, as unlikely as that is? Kent did right by Big Brown, and the whining bettors (who weren't cashing in anyway) can frankly eat their tickets for all I care.

I'm glad this Triple Crown series is over. Worst ever I can remember: a backstabbing/loudmouthed trainer, a ignominious death on the track, an industry with its head in the sand, racing backers with their heads in the sand, PETA protestors who don't even know the basics of the game but won't let that stop them from laying blame at the least culpable, and an ownership group straight out of Wall Street chicanery. Yeah, stuff of legends there. Some real ugliness in this Triple Crown series.

What a circus. I'm glad it's over.

[Justpat]

4. I think the entire industry is glad it is over.

I was talking to another trainer in the kitchen yesterday.
He said that when he realized that BB was not going to win
he was happy, then when he realized he wasn't going to hit
the board, he was positively giddy.

That pretty much sums up the general atmosphere on the track.
I think everyone felt that the racing gods, who seemed to have
gone on vacation this year, finally did the right thing and
let BB and his crew find out that this is a test of champions -
not hype.

[bread_and_roses]

5. Billy Turner on BB's loss in article over at the BloodHorse

has some interesting things to say about training a horse for the TC - right along the lines of what OB and others have said about the lack of conditioning coming into the race.

He's pretty savage about Kent's ride, too, but I can't agree with him there. I think it at least likely that Eight Belles influenced his pulling up BB. It's perhaps a testament to how effortlessly BB usually ran that he thought something must be wrong with him. Aside from any other possibilities, at least two horses had already come off the track in real distress from the heat - how could he be sure the horse was OK? And I still say that Dutrow's manner (despite the "guarantee") did not emanate his usual brash confidence on the walk over; I thought he looked and sounded tense, nervous when I watched it, and it made me wonder then how BB had really been back at at the barn (and after, if something back there had influenced KD's pulling him up).

If BB was "hyped" unjustifiably, or juiced, or whatever, we'll find out if he races again and flops. Right now, I can see no reason to think so: my own eyes told me that the Florida and Derby races were remarkable, but I wouldn't trust my uninformed eyes - it's what everyone said and still says. Effortless power. Between the training, ride, and heat, it seems to me there's enough to "explain" the performance without anything else, until and unless we get to see him run again. As one writer put it in the NY Daily News: "This is what kept Big Brown from becoming the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years: He was not a happy horse."

One part of the "commupance from the racing gods" I do find satisfactory is that Dutrow's comments about the other trainers are coming back to haunt him in the criticism now being directed at his own. Most of his blow-hardiness doesn't bother me - it sounds brash, an over-inflated confidence in self that is stupid but not mean. His comments about the other horses and trainers, though, fell into the arrogant category - evidencing a mean-spirited contempt for others rather than a confience in himself. Ironic that now his horse finishes worse than any other TC favorite, and it is his training that comes under fire.

[two gun sid]

7. It was a great piece by Nack...

when Mr. Turner speaks people should listen. He is the only living person that actually knows what it takes to win a TC.

I hope we see and hear more from him in the near future. We're not doing something right if no one can win the damn thing for over 30 yrs.

[bread_and_roses]

9. amen to that (n/t)