Margarito vs Mosley

[H2O Man]

SATURDAY - at Los Angeles (HBO) - 12 rounds, WBA welterweight title: Antonio Margarito (37-5, 27 KOs) vs. Shane Mosley (45-5, 38 KOs); 10 rounds, super featherweights: Robert Guerrero (22-1-1, 15 KOs) vs. Edel Ruiz (31-21-4, 22 KOs); 10 rounds, light middleweights: Saul Roman (29-5, 25 KOs) vs. Jose Varela (23-4, 16 KOs).


There are two schools of thought on this weekend’s big fight: First, that Antonio Margarito is simply too strong for Shane Mosley at this point in their careers, and will probably stop the ex-champion in the later rounds; and second, that Mosley still has enough left in the tank to be able to frustrate and out-box his less stylish foe.

There is also a very good chance that these two things can both take place, with Mosley doing well in the first half of the bout, but having trouble withstanding the intense pace that Margarito is known for.

Margarito is 30 years old, stands 5’ 11" tall, and has a 73-inch reach. Mosley is 37 years old, stands 5’ 9" tall, and has a 74-inch reach. The difference in age will be the most important factor.

Both men have had solid ring experience. Mosley had a much deeper amateur career, and has had far more experience against the top fighters in the sport. Margarito’s lack of "super fights" has been largely due to the top fighters carefully avoiding him for many years.

Styles make fights. Mosley has done well against one taller opponent, Oscar de la Hoya, and won hard-fought decisions in their two fights. However, against another taller foe, Vernon Forrest, he had problems. Vernon beat him in the amateurs, and twice in the professional ranks.

Mosley beat de la Hoya by moving side-to-side, and then out-punching Oscar with rapid combinations. His loses to Forrest were, in my opinion, because Shane has never developed a real jab. He tends to paw with his lead, and while Oscar was rarely able to take advantage of that, Vernon used it to his full advantage.

Margarito’s jab is not his strong point. Oscar had a good jab, but frequently failed to use it when it could have allowed him to win in big fights (Mayweather and Trinidad come to mind). Forrest had a strong jab that he often doubled up on.

Both Margarito and Mosley are very capable fighters on the inside. Margarito throws strong body punches, and has a solid uppercut that can wear out anyone who makes the mistake of standing in front of him (as Cotto found out). Mosley digs hard, lifting punches to the body, then follows with flurries to the head.

They both are able to take solid punches to the head. But while that is good, there is also a down-side. Margarito cuts relatively easy, and Mosley, like all fighters nearing 40, tends to swell up around the eyes. Margarito is easier to hit, because he doesn’t have great defensive skills, such as simply moving his head. He tends to stand fairly straight up, and walk straight forward. But opponents pay a price for trading punches with him.

Margarito is known for throwing a high volume of punches for 12 rounds. Few people can keep pace with him. Mosley has become more conservative as he ages, and fights at a slower pace. But he still has shown himself to be strong at the end of his last couple of fights: he was backing Cotto up in the final rounds in 2007, and KOed a much bigger Mayorga in 12 in ’08.

An important factor could be the choice of referees. Some refs let people fight more on the inside without breaking it up. That should favor Margarito, though Mosley is probably going to be stronger that most people he’s faced. Also, those tactics that verge on being fouls, as well as outright fouls, can be a factor in their fights. Even a nice guy like Mosley knows how to use his head as a weapon inside.

This could prove to be one of the better fights of 2009. I’m glad that HBO isn’t making it a PPV match. Enjoy the fight.

[doublethink]

1. So who you taking man? ha ha you chickened out like me !!

This is one of those fights that deserve PPV .... (thankfully not) ... one of those fights that almost anything can happen (except Margarito getting knocked out) .... and will be a pleasure to cancel my other plans for tomorrow night so I can see it. :) And that's as far as predictions go from this end, I predict I'll see the fight. :):):) ....

Does Sugar Shane still have enough hand speed and energy at 37 to box 12 rounds, and withstand Margarito's pressure? If so I could see him frustrating Antonio as Paul Williams did and win a close decision. I can also see Antonio dominating this fight on the other end of the spectrum, too much pressure, breaking down Shane ..... in somewhat the same way Cotto fell.

But styles make fights .... and I envision Margarito actually having more trouble early in the fight against Mosley then he did Cotto .... but then one of two things will happen .... by round 5 or just past .... Mosley will tire (age, pressure) and this will be that 'telling fight' letting us know it was coming ... the reflects aren't there anymore .... and I'll be yelling for the Ref to stop the fight before he gets hurt. His last fight against a washed up Morayaga tells me 'this could be that fight' ????

Or ....... he could ..... just ...... surprise ..... us ..... and before ya know it ..... we're in round 11 ... holy wow .... ???? Okay maybe a third thing will happen and Margarito will just dominate from round one, finally being the one in the spotlight and having something to prove.

Ha ha watch Mosley knock out Antonio the one thing nobody expects to happen !! Gotta love boxing. Fun stuff. :)

[H2O Man]

2. Mosley has been telling

people that he will win by knockout. He has studied Margarito closely, and is convinced that he can take him out. This brings up two possibilities: (1) that he is correct; or (2) that is is underestimating Margarito/ overestimating himself.

Mosley is one of the smartest fighters of this era. I assume that he knows something that the Hurricane taught me many years ago: if a guy has the ability to take the hardest of punches to the head -- as Margarito does -- you damned well better concentrate on his body. Because everyone can be hurt badly, somewhere.

On the other hand, there is a long history of 37-year old men thinking they have more ability than they do. They tend to remember what they once could do, but are no longer able to accomplish -- because just as every fighter can be hurt, every fighter surely gets old.

I favor Margarito. But not by so much that I would be surprised if Mosley wins. And, because I think that Shane is one of the smartest of boxers, and he is fully convinced he can KO/TKO Margarito, even that would not surprise me.

I like both guys. But as only one can win, it will be who is the best man tonight. It should be an outstanding fight. Enjoy it!

[doublethink]

3. Total domination by Sugar Shane ..... wow .....

he destroyed Antonio .... He hit Margarito with everything and couldn't miss. How the hell did Cotto beat Mosley? I'd like to see Mosley get another shot at Cotto, but it's Sugar Shane's shot to call. That was hall of fame seal the deal stuff tonight ... hats off big time to Sugar Shane.

[H2O Man]

4. It ranks with

the classic fights in the division's history. Margarito is still an intense fighter, but he was in against a guy who was a couple levels above him. I was surprised that Mosley was able to move Margarito backwards as well as he did. Outstanding performance. It doesn't get better than this.

[doublethink]

5. Agreed ...... when Margarito started backing up .....

you could almost feel it was over. Pretty spectacular knock out at the end of a game plan worked to perfection. Sugar should definitely keep his new trainer. Sugars reach tonight reminded me of Aaron Pryor's back in the late 70's early 80's .... in fact I actually exclaimed during the fight to a few friends something like 'that's freaking Aaron Pryor in there tonight' !! :) This win really shakes up the division again .... in a good way really.

[trumad]

6. Shane, the ex-body builder, weight lifter --surprised Margarito with his strenth...

The replacement of his father with Nazim Richardson was an excellent move---- and the steam roller strategy took out the reach and height advantage of Margarito.

It was a great fight.

[H2O Man]

9. Richardson is outstanding.

I do not think Mosley, Sr., could have come up with that fight plan. There are a lot of risks that go along with being 37 and trying to move Margarito backwards. Mosley, Sr. likely would have put Shane in the pocket, moving out to his sides. But the "backwards" was one of two determining factors, along with speed.

[erpowers]

7. Great Fight

It was a great fight. I watched the whole thing and Mosley dominated the fight from beginning to end. I think Mosley hitting Margarito in the head so many times did Margarito in by the end of the fight. I think Margarito got hit at least 27 times in the head by the time the fight ended. I do not think it matter how strong of a chin a person has if you get hit in the head that many times I do not see how you can win a fight.

[H2O Man]

8. One of the guys that

I watched the fight with said after it was over, "How could Margarito take so many hard right hands, but then be hurt so bad by a left hook that didn't look that hard?" Well, the answer is found right there in the question. First, Margarito was taking a lot of hard punches, and the damage accumulates.

Second, the best left hooks do not "look" that hard. They don't have to. The very best example, which is replayed from time to time on ESPN Classic, is Sugar Ray Robinson, knocking out Gene Fullmer. In his day, Fullmer was the man with the iron chin. He moves into Ray, and is hit with a short, crisp hook that comes out of nowhere. The next thing he knows, he is on his stool, asking his cornerman why Ray is doing jumping jacks between rounds? His guy explains that Robinson just knocked him out.

When he was a lightweight, Mosley was a known power-puncher. And it was that short, crisp left hook that flattened so many opponents.

[trumad]

10. 8:50 in--- illustrates your point perfectly--- ya gotta love YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdROjwy34qU

[H2O Man]

11. "Speed is power."

Mosley has slowed down in recent years, but that is only when you compare him to himself at a younger age. It's funny how a few "experts" are already saying that Margarito didn't have such a strong chin after all. Baloney. Very few people could have stood up to the punches that he was hit with earlier in the fight. No one could have stood up under the punches he took in the last two rounds .... especially after the body attack that Mosley inflicted. What an intense fight!

[H2O Man]

12. As I watched the

Robinson film again this morning, I was reminded of another outstanding example. When Ali was making his comeback, after he TKOed Jerry Quarry in 3 rounds, he fought Oscar "Ringo" Bonavena. The fought at Madison Square Garden on 12-7-70. Oscar had a reputation as having a solid chin: he fought Frazier twice, for a total of 25 rounds, and was never knocked down. (In fact, he decked Joe twice in one round in their first fight, in September of '66.)

Ali had predicted a 9th round knockout. After having a fairly tough go of it for 8 rounds, he came out for the kill in the 9th. He landed some hard right hand punches -- his right cross was what he generally knocked opponents out with. But Oscar not only survived Ali's attack -- he ended up hurting Ali that round. After the fight, Ali said he had started to wonder if he had predicted against himself.

Ali continued to struggle with Bonavena. It looked like he would win a close decision, and Howard Cosell was saying that it was obvious his timing was way off, and that he needed more fights before facing Frazier.

In the 15th, Ali noticed something important. Any time fighters get tired, and one pushes the other guy away when they are inside, the guy being pushed will naturally increase his resistance -- he will push forward. (You see Fullmer doing that, too, though he isn't that tired.) And if YouTube has a clip of that round, you'll see Ali measuring Oscar, because Bonavena's right hand comes down slightly as he moves forward. Ali will load up on a hook, but without any real result. A moment later, Ali pushes Oscar back, and when he moves forward, Ali lands a beautiful hook. Oscar goes down, and his legs behave much like Fullmer's did after Ray clipped him. (He does get up, and Ali decks him twice more. Some people note The Champ did not appear to "remember" to stay in the neutral corner!)