Fountain of Youth Analysis and Selections

[two gun sid]

The Fountain of Youth is always one of the most highly-anticipated Derby prep races of the year, but with the race now at one-mile for the first time in its history, the dynamics of it have changed dramatically from a handicapping perspective. It means speed is a much bigger factor.

That is especially true this year, with Gulfstream's track holding speed very well. Pace will probably be the determining factor in who wins here, which means Notonthesamepage, even if he doesn't win, should play a major role.

The general consensus is that Notonthesamepage will use his electric speed to go right to the front. But will he run a :21 and change and a :44 and change like he did in the Spectacular Bid? Or will he take back a bit and let Quality Road and/or Taqarub challenge? When I talked to Ken Ramsey on Thursday night he wasn't tipping his hand, but if I read between the lines correctly I got the feeling that they don't want Notonthesamepage to run those lighting fractions again. Remember, they think this is a legit Derby prospect and they may have been teaching him to be something other than a speedballer.

Either way, I think it's safe to say that we can expect Notonthesamepage, Quality Road, Taqarub and This Ones for Phil, who breaks from the outside and probably will lay right off the pace, to be near the front. If the pace is quick, the race may set up perfectly for This Ones for Phil, or horses that will likely be mid-pack, such as Capt. Candyman Can, Beethoven or even Rocketing Returns. Or, a deeper closer like Theregoesjojo could pick them all up if the race falls apart.This is a very challenging race to handicap. The good news is, no matter who you like you will get a decent price. I suspect that by post time This Ones for Phil and Capt. Candyman Can will be co-favorites, or close to it.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2009/02/27/fountain-of-youth-analysis-and-selections.aspx

I kinda think Notonthesamepage has some distance limitations. No way he can get 1 1/4m in GI company but man, is that fucker a flyer. He can burn up a racetrack and is fun as hell to watch. Check him out this weekend and see what you think and cboy4, this guy is an athlete!

Video of Notonthesamepage in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTV-yR8ih4A

[trumad]

1. This Ones for Phil is just as fast.....

Speed race all the way. I might look hard at a closer thinking the speedsters will slow at the end.

[two gun sid]

2. Taqarub is another speed horse that might...

play a part in the pace of this race. Three good early speed horses might cause a pace breakdown and set it up for a closer. It's a one turn mile so this should be interesting. My boy Notonthesamepage has not been able to carry his speed beyond 6f but I do like to see him run.

[two gun sid]

3. PP's for the Fountain of Youth

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_140160.pdf

If anyone needs any other past performances this weekend just holler. I'll post whatever you need.

[two gun sid]

4. The Pamplemousse takes on 11 in Sham

More than a month after The Pamplemousse won his stakes debut in the Grade 3 San Rafael Stakes, the performance still amazes jockey Alex Solis.

"I never moved on him," Solis said. "It was amazing the way he did it and kicked on."

The Pamplemousse led throughout that race, earning a spot among California's top 3-year-old males.

Now, he has to do it again in Saturday's $200,000 Sham Stakes. The circumstances will be different. Instead of a five-horse field in the San Rafael, the Grade 3 Sham Stakes has drawn 12 entrants. The San Rafael was run at a mile, while the Sham Stakes is 1 1/8 miles, the same distance as the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 4, the goal for many Sham runners.

http://horseracing.sportsline.com/cbs/headlines/showarticle.aspx?articleId=34249

PP's for the Sham Stakes: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/baffert_140271.pdf

[cboy4]

5. two gun sid, don't you think the fact that trumad

is all into horse racing is a red flag that perhaps you're involved in the wrong hobby?

Hobby, because horse racing is of course not a sport.

And whatever it is, it's clearly tainted and corrupt with trumad's fingerprints all over it.

[two gun sid]

6. Oh no. trumad is very knowledgable about racing...

and I feel that this forum would be so much less without him AND you cboy4. No matter how fucked up my day has been I know I can always check out the DU Sports Forum and get a laugh out of things you guys have posted.

Give racing a chance cboy4. The run up to the Triple Crown is exciting as hell and most people never pay attention, they just watch the Derby and pick out a horse they like by color or name. There is a lot more involved. We have just as much drama as the other sports. Cheating. Steroids. Money.

I'm gonna give you a pick for the Derby. He's a longshot. His name is Dunkirk. A beautiful son of Unbridled's Song out of an A P Indy mare. He has the pedigree and he is talented as hell. Keep an eye on him and follow his progression and I think you will see why we love racing.

Dunkirk's Profile Page: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/dunkirk/2006

Video of Dunkirk's last race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ats_-JdSFu8&eurl=http://blogs.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.ListAll&feature=player_embedded

Peace, my friend.

[cboy4]

7. LOL. You crack me up.. You're a good man

two gun sid.

[two gun sid]

8. just follow that horse and you can cash a ticket on Derby Day...

and you are right: I am a good guy.

[Justpat]

9. I can vouch for that.

:)

[two gun sid]

10. Thank you, my good friend...

you have no idea how highly I think of you.

Have you seen a horse that just jumps out at you and makes you say, "Derby Winner!"?

[Justpat]

14. Old Fashioned is the only one I like so far. n/t

[two gun sid]

13. I saw something the other day and thought of you guys....

Sweetnorthernsaint was in for a tag and I thought, "I wish I had some spare cash sitting around."

[Justpat]

15. What track was he running at? n/t

[two gun sid]

16. He was in today at Gulfstream for a 62.5k tag...

7th race. What's going on with Trombetta and this horse? I may be wrong but it seems like he wasn't managed very well. He was scratched.

http://www.drf.com/static/entries/28/eGP28.html#7

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20090228&RN=7

[Justpat]

17. That sucks.

Either the horse was not sound enough to be by the vet or he got word someone was going to take him.

The horse deserves better than this.

[two gun sid]

18. Have you heard of this trainer, Azpurua?...

I don't recognize the name. A 62.5 OC at Gulfstream is still pretty good company isn't it? Still, I hate to see him in for a tag. He was a pretty good horse and wasn't he almost the favorite in The Derby after his big IL Derby performance?

I almost wish I could get a horse like him and turn him over to you guys and we could have a little fun. I'm still playing the Lotto so I haven't given up hope that I'll one day make it to the Derby with a loaded gun!

[trumad]

20. The closet thing that douche is to horseracing is the horses ass...

His favorite sport is licking Barry's balls.

[two gun sid]

22. That's a hobby, not a sport.

[cboy4]

36. Well whatever it is, trumad is constantly talking about the

male reproductive system.

Everything is always nuts this, and balls that.

He would be a hit in middle school with that kind of language.

Don't ya think?

[two gun sid]

38. Hahaha.

Did you happen to catch any of the races? The Sham Stakes out at Santa Anita was pretty exciting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLJWYiyBIoE

[aaronbees]

11. Picks

Pamplemousse in the Sham ... Capt. Candyman Can in the FOY. Chalky! :)

[two gun sid]

12. What a chalk eater! Hahaha.

I like The Pamplemousse, too. And how about Notonthesamepage in the FOY? I say his speed holds on that one turn mile at Gulfstream.

[aaronbees]

23. Where'd the Notonthesamepage wind up?

The Captain was poised in a good spot then flattened out.

[Justpat]

24. He wasn't in the top five. n/t

[aaronbees]

27. Hard to know what to make of this race. I'm not wowed.

I agree with what you say about Old Fashioned upthread. But I really like Pioneerof the Nile as well.

[two gun sid]

25. Mr. Ramsey needs to put his wallet back in his pocket,....

quit paying for stride evaluations and let this horse be what he is. He ain't gonna get a distance, ever. He's still an awesome sprinter. I'd go win some races with him at the 6-7f distance and, as he grew up and got older, try to stretch him out to a mile.

[aaronbees]

26. Have you been watching....

the Larry Zap vids on Youtube? The Mousse is looking good. He's got a gorgeous color to him. I hope he's one who can stretch it out.

[two gun sid]

28. Yes I have. That horse is as big as a house. He's huge!

I'm afraid he's gonna hurt himself. He is turning into a favorite of mine though.

I'm still hoping Mr. Fantasy turns into something. He's out of a Spectacular Bid mare and this will be the 30th anniversary of The Bid's Derby win and failed TC attempt. I'd like to see his grandson win the Derby. I miss that horse more every year. They just don't make horses like The Bid anymore.

[bread_and_roses]

41. You watch for Bid in the pedigree too?

There's a really good entry on Bid over at the Unofficial TB Hall of Fame (if I recall rightly where I read it - pretty sure). Made me understand how truly Spectacular he was as a racehorse. I visited him in the last year of his life - still beautiful. During the preps I always look to see if he is in any of the pedigrees. So I share your hopes for Mr. Fantasy, though I dislike the name.

[two gun sid]

42. The name, Mr. Fantasy, is not the best...

Fantasy Bid would have been better.

The Bid was the best horse I ever saw. He did it all. He could go to the front, press the pace or drop from the clouds and win. He was able to overcome almost every mistake Delp and Franklin made with him. He wasn't the best looker and he didn't have the best pedigree, especially on the dam side, but he was tough as iron and he had the heart of a lion.

He never made it as a sire. He got a couple of nice runners, like Lotus Pool, but pretty much failed at the stud. He did do well as a broodmare sire and I hope this grandson of his will be half the horse The Bid was.

I envy you getting to visit with him. He was and still is a hero to me. I get all misty eyed just thinking about him.

[bread_and_roses]

43. I wish I'd seen him race

When I started following racing a few years ago, I read a great deal about the greats of the past, and he was one of those that really captured my imagination. Such an incredible record. Then, I found out he'd been at stud quite near me for many years.

In the article at UHOF, the paragraph that really got to me was this one about the '79 JCGC:

http://www.spiletta.com/UTHOF/spectacularbid.html

In 1979, they called it the Race of the Century, a term which hadn't been used all year. Affirmed had just won six straight, and Spectacular Bid had only the Belmont Stakes to mar his record. Coastal had just run second to Affirmed in the Woodward Stakes.

Spectacular Bid wasn't the winner that day, but he displayed a rare courage. He tried to get by Affirmed with four separate runs. If a horse makes two strong moves in a race, he is praised. The Bid tried to get by the great Affirmed four times. That he couldn't is no black mark on his record, but is only a testament to both his own courage and Affirmed's ability.

Yes, Fantasy Bid would have been a MUCH better name! Maybe wasn't available.
(edit to add link)

[two gun sid]

44. That was a great race. You know, Coastal almost caught...

Bid and Affirmed at the wire that day. It was an exciting race. Both times Bid tried to go 1 1/2 miles he was beaten. In the Belmont Franklin burned him up in a speed dual with a cheap speed horse and the JCGC when he ran into a buzzsaw named Affirmed who was a great horse that could get 1 1/2 miles without a doubt.

I still say that I would take Bid against all comers at any distance. He never quit trying, ever. Awsi Dooger saw Bid's Florida Derby live. Ask him about what happened that day. Amazing that Bid was able to win that race with all the mistakes a very young Ronnie Franklin made.

I'm gonna go over to youtube and watch some of his races. I truly miss that horse.

Peace

[Justpat]

19. Quality Road

Jimmy Jerkins horse.


At least Dutrow didn't win.

[two gun sid]

21. Kinda of a shocker to me....

Good for Jimmy, though. I can't help but root against Dutrow.

[two gun sid]

29. DRF Chart for the FOY

http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=GP&CTY=USA&DATE=20090228&RN=9

[aaronbees]

30. The Pamplemousse.....

ran them off their feet in the Sham. That was impressive. Take the Points well back in second. Mr. Hot Stuff third.

[two gun sid]

31. He's a monster, ain't he?

Nice race.

[aaronbees]

32. Reporter asked Julio Canani if the Pamplemousse can rate....

Canani: "Who cares?" :rofl:

This horse is just so massive, like a tank with jets. He just barrels along so nicely. Think he'll get the extra eighth of a mile? I do.

[two gun sid]

33. Hahaha.

I think he gets a distance. Wow. That's a nice horse.

[Justpat]

34. Does he run as well on the dirt?

I'll have to check his form. I haven't kept up with the CA horses.

[two gun sid]

35. The Pamplemousse (KY) Profile from the Blood Horse

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred/the-pamplemousse/2006

[Justpat]

40. That race was fun to watch.

Pamplemousse galloped along in front and when the horses behind him tried to make
their move, you could see them really digging down and trying hard but Pamplemousse
simple kept galloping away from them without appearing to be doing anything.

[bread_and_roses]

45. How big is he, do you know?

I watched some of the videos (didn't have time for all) and I can't tell - don't have a good eye, or a quick one (can't see lead changes either). If there were a still shot of him by another horse, and a person who's approxamate height I knew in the photo, I might be able to make a guess. But I have a fondness for big horses and am curious - any idea how many hands?

[aaronbees]

46. I don't know exactly

I'm not good at eyeing that kind of thing. He seems hefty to me, but I've heard someone call him gangly. He does have quite a reach to his stride. There are some vids on youtube of him walking from the track - maybe that gives a better sense? Here's one with Alex Solis on back: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD0BPwIHWHA. Solis is 5'3". And one of him schooling in the paddock: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niuM-I1LB7I .

[Justpat]

47. probably about 16.1

He has a great body on him, very muscular - but I don't get the impression of a 17 hand
horse here. He actually looks perfect to me, not too big, not too small.

[trumad]

37. Set up like I thought it would...

Speed faded, and Quality Road took advantage.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49415/quality-road-rolls-in-fountain-of-youth

[two gun sid]

39. Chart for the Sham Stakes.

http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=SA&CTY=USA&DATE=20090228&RN=9