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Edited on Mon May-25-09 10:35 PM by t0dd
1) Uphold Prop 8 2) Strike Down Prop 8
Assumptions * Chin and Baxter vote to uphold prop 8 in every outcome * Werdegar and Moreno vote to strike down prop 8 in every outcome * Corrigan, Kennard, and George are equally unpredictable (Kennard and George both voted to legalize same-sex marriage last year, but Corrigan did not. However, she pointed out that she personally believes same-sex marriage should be legal and also said in her dissent last year that she would override the will of the people if the Constitution compelled her to do so)
Outcome 1 1) Corrigan, Kennard, George, Chin, Baxter 2) Werdegar Moreno
Outcome 2 1) Chin, Baxter 2) George, Corrigan, Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 3 1) George, Chin, Baxter 2) Corrigan, Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 4 1) Corrigan, Kennard, Chin, Baxter 2) George, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 5 1) Corrigan, Chin, Baxter 2) George, Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 6 1) George, Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno 2) Corrigan, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 7 1) Kennard, Chin, Baxter 2) George, Corrigan, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 8 1) George, Corrigan, Chin, Baxter 2) Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno
I personally believe Corrigan was leaning towards striking down proposition 8 based off of what I heard during oral arguments. She never made any suggestion that she'd be opposed to extending what the court defines a revision as, among other indicators. Let's assume she votes to strike it down. That leaves us with 4 possible outcomes.
Outcome 2 1) Chin, Baxter 2) George, Corrigan, Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 3 1) George, Chin, Baxter 2) Corrigan, Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 6 1) George, Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno 2) Corrigan, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 7 1) Kennard, Chin, Baxter 2) George, Corrigan, Werdegar, Moreno
Next, Kennard was very tough on the petitioners (those seeking to overturn the same-sex marriage ban) during the hearing. Let's assume she votes to uphold it.
Outcome 6 1) George, Kennard, Werdegar, Moreno 2) Corrigan, Werdegar, Moreno
Outcome 7 1) Kennard, Chin, Baxter 2) George, Corrigan, Werdegar, Moreno
George seemed reluctant to adopt the revision theory. He made several comments about the CA constitution being just too easy to amend, and that, maybe, the best way to resolve proposition 8 would be for the voters to establish a new initiative process. However, he also seemed concerned when Ken Starr advanced his theory that the people are sovereign no matter what. That the equality clause may be enforced only when the majority say so. That freedom of speech, freedom to marry, whatever, are subject to the whims of the political process.
If I had to guess, I'd go with Outcome 7 :shrug: But it should definitely be one of these 8.
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