Yippee! Some of the most commonly prescribed drugs in America are going off patent. According to reporters that means their cost will plummet by somewhere between 20% and 80%. You will be able to get them more cheaply if you pay cash, and your copayment will be smaller if you are on insurance.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_162-20082918-10391704.htmlSounds great! Too bad the savings will never materialize. Here is why:
Lipitor is
the statin. Cardiologists have used it right and left for years in order to drive down bad cholesterol levels and save people from heart attacks. Folks who were on the older generic statins like Mevacor were all switched by their specialists. And primary care docs got the message and started doing the same thing. After all, the specialists know.
Well, recently, the cardiologists are starting to switch patients from Lipitor to Crestor, the new cholesterol fighting med in town. Why? I am not exactly sure myself. However, I do know that in 2008, Astra-Zeneca noted that Lipitor was going generic in a couple of years, which meant its own Crestor would become the premiere
patent cholesterol drug. In order to corner the market the way that Lipitor once did, they would have to prove that Crestor was better than Lipitor. It would not have to be a big improvement. It would not have to be an across the board improvement. All they had to do was come up with
one way in which Crestor was better than Lipitor. With Lipitor now a generic, its manufacturer would have no reason to fire back against Crestor’s claims, and Crestor would win the pr war by default. So, in 2008, the WSJ described how Astra-Zeneca was launching a fishing expedition called the Saturn Study to find that one piece of evidence that would make Astra-Zeneca a fortune.
http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2008/01/15/crestor-vs-lipitor-astrazeneca-takes-on-the-champ/Prediction: Crestor will take Lipitor’s place as number one statin in this country.
Plavix. Same story as Lipitor’s. Astra-Zeneca just got FDA approval to market its Brilinta. The manufacturers are calling it “better” and “safer.” It has received approval for a wider variety of uses. Whether it is actually better or not, I can not say. However, I know that once Plavix is off patent, there will be no drug company to argue against Astra-Zeneca’s claims of improved safety. And any doctor who has a patient who happens to be taking Plavix when he or she suffers any kind of significant bleeding will be asked “Why didn’t you change your patient to the safer Brilinta?”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/281427-despite-approval-brilinta-s-fate-may-hinge-on-plavix-generics Prediction: (Barring some unforeseen Baycol type disaster) Brilinta will replace Plavix as the anti-platelet drug of choice.
Singulair does not have a major competitor at the moment. However, the FDA is laying the groundwork for removing it from the market altogether. In 2009, the FDA added a black box warning about the potential for mood changes and suicidal behavior with Singulair. It did not pull the product from the shelves. However, as soon as the drug goes generic, there will be no major pharmaceutical company to lobby for it. And no one is going to care that a whole bunch of children and young adults with asthma are able to avoid taking corticosteroids (a much more dangerous medication which also causes mood swings in addition to many other problems) because of Singulair.
http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/business/2009/june/FDA-Adds-to-Problems-for-Mercks-Asthma-Drug-Singulair.htmlPrediction: Singulair will be taken off the market by the FDA. This will increase the number of asthmatics who have to take combination inhaled steroid/long acting beta agonist meds, including the new Dulera, from Singulair’s manufacturer, Merck.
http://www.glgroup.com/News/Will-Mercks-New-Asthma-Drug-Make-the-Big-Time--49337.htmlThis prediction is not as wild as it might seem. Way back in the day, when the nation’s only nonsedating antihistamine Seldane was about to generic to the relief of millions of allergy sufferers on a budget, Seldane’s own parent company petitioned the FDA to have it taken off the market because of a rare side effect that occurred when it was taken with other prescription medication. The same company then launched its brand new Allegra---patent, of course.
Lexapro I am not even sure why this drug is on the list. There are so many anti-depressants in its class---some of them generic---I am frankly surprised that this one sees much use. Maybe it had something to do with its manufacturer’s aggressive marketing strategy.
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20090831MEDICARE/20090831_MEDICARE.pdfPrediction Once its parent company stops paying docs money (in the from of lectures etc) to prescribe it, Lexapro will sink to the bottom along with all the other generic SSRI’s.
The biggest declines we see are drugs that have gone off-patent, including Wellbutrin (a decline of 73 percent in prescriptions) and Paxil (which didn’t even make it on this year’s list). Strattera — prescribed for ADHD — lost 42 percent of the prescriptions it had in 2005. And despite Zoloft’s strong showing in 4th place — down from 2nd place four years ago — it also lost 28 percent of its previous prescriptions.
http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2010/04/26/top-25-psychiatric-drugs-in-2009/Seroquel Huge selling drug that leads to some
huge patients, because of the weight gain it causes which can lead to diabetes with coma etc. Huge problem for its manufacturer, Astra-Zeneca, which has been charged with using deceptive practices to increase its market share by encouraging physicians to use it for diseases besides those which the FDA approved it to treat.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/07/18/bloomberg1376-LOJWTV6JTSE901-5JUTRA7D7KSS99PAU8THIAAQMG.DTLPrediction Astra-Zeneca will continue to make big money off its Seroquel XR (patented until 2017) a sustained release preparation of Seroquel. We will by told (by Astra-Zeneca) that Seroquel XR is sooo much better than plain Seroquel that it would be medical malpractice for doctors to continue to prescribe it. Bonus points if they can get the FDA to agree.
Addendum: If you always suspected that the FDA cares more about drug companies than you, you might be interested in
this:
http://www.ahrp.org/cms/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=629