Birdflu, Human 2 Human: time fm Africa to USA?

[oscar111]

Any expert predictions on the time between the first human to human transmission... say in Africa... and the time it arrives on our shores?

CBS claimed dr Webster would have a prediction, but their segment did not mention what was promised. Shame!

You folks hear of any real predictions?

[WindRavenX]

1. It's an if, not a when

There is no guarantee a recombination event will occur to allow human-to-human transmition.

[depakid]

2. Then again

There's no guarantee that the laws of probability are correct, either....:eyes:

[WindRavenX]

5. No there isn't

But that's why it's called probability-- it's more probable that there will not be a recombination event that would allow the virus to have the S.A receptors for human to human transmission.

You take precautions. But you don't panic.

[depakid]

6. ???

I think you may need to go back and look at some of the scientific material, because that's quite the opposite of what most researchers have concluded....

[WindRavenX]

8. it's not

I've taken an intensive molecule virology class focusing on H5N1, and the probability of a recombination event that would allow human to human transmission in a more virulent form than its current form is remote. This is what we may be disagreeing over. Now, a recombination event that would allow h2h but with a reduced virulent is higher in probability than the former, but is still remote.
Most of the clinical and genetic research of H5N1 suggest that it has not undergone a recombination event that allows insertion into cells with alpha 2-6 S.A. linkage and higher virulence and mortality.

Wild fowl is the natural reservoir of all influenza viruses, and they are 2-3 SA linkage. Pigs have both, hence they are "mixing vessels" for recombination. This is where 2-6 linkage is often originated and usually has reduced virility.

Now, H1N1, the 1918 pandemic, seemed to jumped directly to humans with no intermediate recombination. Based on the length of time that H5N1 has been exposed to the human population, it seems improbable that mutation has occurred resulting in a highly virulent H5N1 (which would mean it does has 2-6 linkage).

There is no doubt that there will probably be h2h transmission of at least a form of H5N1, but probably with not as high a virulence as the current form that we see spreading in birds. My professor said that the human deaths that have resulted are probably due to epithelial cell infection because those cells do have some 2-6 SA receptors. This contact requires very, very close contact with infected fowl, though, and usually does not provide much of a chance for recombination.

So that's it in a nutshell. I do not think there will be a pandemic, though there may at some point in the next few years be a bad flu season.

[Warpy]

7. Exactly! Remember the swine flu fiasco?

Generally speaking, the influenza virus mutates from birds to pigs, then from pigs to people. The swine flu was one that had mutated to efficient transfer between swine, and we were next. There were a lot of complications from the vaccine and the species jump to humans never happened.

There is also no guarantee that the drastic mutation necessary to make this virus an efficient human to human virus wouldn't also attenuate it, make it far less deadly.

Right now, the appropriate responses are caution, study, and work on effective vaccines and supportive treatments. It's far too soon to be whipped into a panic over this thing.

[Avalux]

3. Who is Dr. Webster?

No way to predict when/if the virus will change to become easily transmitted from human to human (airborne) - anyone who gives a prediction with a timeframe is full of it.

Take everything you hear from the media with a grain of salt - go to the WHO's website and the CDC's website for real information and surveillance data.

[SaveElmer]

4. Webster put the odds at 50-50...

There is considerable dispute over this...and he has been criticized before for conflating personal opinion, with opinion based on fact. He is getting headlines because he is respecte din the field, and because the media likes splashy alarmist headlines.

You almost never hear from the many respected experts who belive the exact opposite...no alarm there!

The fact is no one knows...and as the other port noted...the question is if not so much as when...in terms of this specific virus!

[oscar111]

9. Thanks all, especially Elmer who nurtured well another thread

i followed.

and also thanks to the one upthread who has had a course focusing on the birdflu. very educational post.

ps what could small farmers raise other than birds and hogs? Seems both promote flu. Fish ponds? but those are hard to sset up.