http://www.boston.com/business/personalfinance/articles/2005/02/02/social_security_stocks_link_carries_risk/ Social Security, stocks link carries risk
By Charles Stein, Globe Staff | February 2, 2005
Third in a series of occasional articles examining the economic and political stakes involved in the Bush administration's proposed overhaul of Social Security.
Over the past 80 years, owning stocks has been a good deal for investors. On average, stocks have returned about 10 percent a year since 1926.
So if Americans invest in stocks through private accounts as part of an overhaul of the Social Security system, they can expect returns of around 10 percent, right?
Not necessarily, say many academics and economists, who concede that while market investments may perform well in the future, good returns are far from guaranteed.
''It is not as if they are a fact of nature," said Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist.
Over the long run, the ''total return" from stocks (meaning their dividends plus price appreciation) easily beat more conservative investments like government bonds. But stocks have higher risk. And when those risks are properly accounted for, say economists, the returns don't look anywhere near as good.<snip>