Giant Earthquake Predictions Aided by Historical Data

[emad]

Giant Earthquake Predictions Aided by Historical Data

Stefan Lovgren
for National Geographic News

September 15, 2005

Predicting when the next giant earthquake will occur is a shaky proposition. But new analysis of an unusual seismic fault in Chile could help scientists better understand when and where giant earthquakes are likely to recur.

Geologists believe that the longer a seismic system goes without experiencing an earthquake, the more strain it accumulates and the larger the next quake will be.

This theory applies only to so-called subduction zones, where one tectonic plate moves over or under another. Strike-slip faults, where plates grind against each other, store stress differently.

But the behavior of a seismic fault in a subduction zone in Chile has confounded seismologists' predictions.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/09/0915_050915_earthquake.html