The inexact science of tsunami prediction

[pmbryant]

From the NY Times:

Sounding the Alarm on a Tsunami Is Complex and Expensive
By JOHN SCHWARTZ

If only people had been warned. An hour's notice for those living and vacationing along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean might have saved thousands of lives.

But predictions, and acting on them, are not simple, geoscience experts say.

"It's an inexact science now," said Dr. Laura S. L. Kong, a Commerce Department seismologist and director of the International Tsunami Information Center, an office in Honolulu run under the auspices of the United Nations.

According to a NASA Web site devoted to tsunamis, three of four tsunami warnings issued since 1948 have been false, and the cost of the false alarms can be high.

An evacuation in Hawaii could cost as much as $68 million in lost productivity, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Since the 1960's, Dr. Kong said, there have been two warnings of tsunamis in Hawaii that ended in evacuations, and both were false alarms.

Dr. Kong said the predictions of tsunamis were, in fact, accurate: the waves do arrive, whether they are 40 feet high or a mere two inches. It is the destructive power of the wave that is hard to predict. That depends on many factors, including the configuration of the ocean floor and the shape of a bay.

(snip)

More: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/29/international/worldspecial4/29warn.html?pagewanted=print&position=

[PATRICK]

1. How much time

Do you have when you notice the oceans oddly and suddenly receding? Do you also ignore the pain in your chest or arm?

The cost of evacuations is another obscene example of why bean counters deserve to be settled along the ocean fronts, flood plains and volcano lips of the world. ONE real disaster in economic terms alone is worth an ounce of prevention, but miserly short-sightedness based on the absolute monarchy of Greed have pre-signed the death warrants of each and every one of us. How much in dollars is YOUR life worth? Your child? Someone else's?

They wasted those dollars long ago. And they underfund and ignore unpleasant science.

[The Backlash Cometh]

2. They knew this year there was a high risk of a tsunami.

We talked about the factors on DU a couple of months ago. At a minimum, they should have warned people what NOT to do. For instance, if you see the tide go out quickly, DON'T go after the stranded fish. Instead, run in the opposite direction. Too bad the U.S. stopped being a humanitarian nation.

[annabanana]

3. the configuration of the ocean floor..

Do we have maps of underwater topography? With what degree of accuracy? I would think that computer models would make this kind of predition much easier.

[oneighty]

4. While stationed in Japan

in the early fifties I distinctly recall we were put on alert for a Tsunami. We were on a small Island in Yokosuka harbor. The island is also a short mountain which we were all prepared to START climbing. The water appeared to rise a couple of inches.

Point being there WAS a warning.

180

180

[Used and Abused]

5. racism

A western country would have been notified--no matter what the cost.