SoCal-West Coast Earthquake Warning

[indigobusiness]

Date: January 12, 2005 at 14:57:54
From: Frank Condon,
Subject: Major MT Shift in Progress: WARNING
URL: Near Real-Time Data Display Web Page

Hello all:
There is a now major MT shift in progress. Most likely it indicates a strong earthquake is in final preparation, and deep crustal resonant harmonic energy is surfacing along the Pacific and North American Plate boundary. The high priority level warning encompasses the San Andreas fault from Gorman to the Salton Sea, including the Mojave Desert and the San Jacinto Fault Zone from Wrightwood to Mexicali. and the Imperial fault from Brawley to Northern Baja, Mexico. Southern and Central California should now be on advisory from Bakersfield to San Diego to expect a strong seismic event (M6+) within the next several days along one of the major faults in the region.

Frank Condon

http://www.syzygyjob.net/frankcondon/messages/9171.shtml

[NEOBuckeye]

1. You knew it was coming... n/t

[HawkerHurricane]

2. The big one...

where everything east of the Rocky Mountains sinks into the ocean...

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Perhaps you thought Tsunami were laughing matters too. . . . nt

[HawkerHurricane]

10. "I must laugh, for if I didn't laugh, I would cry, and I can't do that."

Abraham Lincoln, at a cabinet meeting during the Civil War, after being upbraided for telling a tasteless joke.

[aeolian]

23. Some of us need to laugh to stay sane.

[toymachines]

3. thats something to keep in mind

if the house shakes violently and suddenly, i will know whats up.

[indigobusiness]

5. Welcome to DU.

If you've got a trumpet...sound it.

[indigobusiness]

6. MT ULF Update

Date: January 17, 2005 at 06:21:20
From: Frank Condon,
Subject: MT ULF Update
URL: MT ULF Report #15

Hello all:


MT ULF UPDATE: January 16, 2005


Note: The San Jacinto Fault Alert along with Inland Empire advisory continues to stay in effect.
There were no observed crustal infrasonic resonant harmonics below 2 Hz on Sunday.
ULF and MT activity level was low during the past 24 hours. The inferred mean average
unclamping level was unchanged during the past 24 hours. There were no detected significant unclamping incidents.
The ULF mean average was unchanged. No multiple harmonics were observed. All charts were updated to reflect the latest analysis.
There was one detected ULF burst, which was associated with a micro quake epicentered along the Southern Elsinore fault zone.
Also, there was a short duration spectral line (5 Hz) detected by the tracking filter, which appears to be associated with a
micro quake epicentered south of Lucerne Valley, CA (NFFZ).


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity SummarySGAS Number 017 Issued at 0245Z on 17 Jan 2005This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 16 JanA. Energetic EventsBegin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 0505 0505 0505 2800 0754 0758 0802 0720 C4.4 IV 2155 2203 2222 0720 N13W16 M2.4 1n 54 B. Proton Events: A proton event at greater than 10 MeV began at16/0210 UTC in response to an X2 flare which occurred at 15/2302UTC. Peak flux observed so far was 365 pfu at 16/1840 UTC. The eventremains in progress...

[indigobusiness]

7. PREDICTIONS FOR JANUARY 2005

Looks like Berkland missed this one:

The first Seismic Window of the year is open from Jan. 08-15, 2005. Not only is it first, it is the best one. In fact, it is focused on a super syzygy, with the highest possible Golden Gate tides of 9.2 ft. on Jan. 10th (and at Puget Sound, a huge peak of 17.0 ft. on Jan. 11-12). These perigean spring tides are caused by the closest lunar approach in twelve years at a time of less than two hours from the moment of the new Moon. In addition the yearly closest separation of the Earth and Sun (perihelion) is on January 1st.
The earthquake potential is even greater than it was under similar conditions on December 23, 2003 when the San Simeon, California and Bam, Iran disasters occurred.
In addition all shore lands will be highly vulnerable to coastal flooding if the rivers are high, the air pressure low, and a strong on-shore wind prevails. No doubt the newspapers and other media will warn of these conditions, but for earthquake conditions, you heard it here first.

Based upon these extreme tidal forces I am predicting with 85% confidence, for the Super Seismic Window of January 08-15, 2005:

Within two-degrees (140 miles) of Mt. Diablo(about 38N; 122W), at least one quake of 3.5-6.5M;
Within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34N; 118W) at least one quake of 3.5-6.5M.
In the Northwestern U.S.A. and having an Oregon or Washington address, at least one quake of 3.0-6.0M.
Globally, I expect one or more major quakes of 7.0-9.0M.


http://www.syzygyjob.org/

[freeplessinseattle]

8. ok, I'm clueless, how are tidal forces and earthquakes related? (nt)

[indigobusiness]

9. Because of the huge amount of weight involved

that compresses and then releases the landmass. Think of how much extra weight is contained by SF Bay during unusually high tides. Right in the midst of complex fault zones.

In addition to the distortion of the Earth itself that the gravitational force exerts on the planet. The shape of the planet is affected by the gravity that results in tidal forces.

[pmbryant]

11. Is there any evidence for a correlation of tides and earthquakes?

[indigobusiness]

12. Berkland's theories have shown statiscal significance...

but fly in the face of conventional wisdom.

He can give you particulars, if you write him.

mailto: [e-mail]

edit- I don't know how significant this system is, but he did nail the World Series quake. And others. Berkland is interesting and a
sincere man, but who knows how legitimate this is? It seems a bit up in the air, to me.

[pmbryant]

13. No public data? ( edit: found some info)

I have no interest in Berkland. I'm just wondering if there is any data that show a correlation between tides and earthquakes.

--Peter

EDIT: Found this recent National Geographic article... http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/10/1022_041022_earthquakes_tides.html

Are Earthquakes Encouraged by High Tides?
Brian Handwerk
for National Geographic News
October 22, 2004

Scientists have long suspected a relationship between tides and earthquakes but have reached little consensus. Now a new study reveals that very high tides might indeed be linked with seismic activity along coasts.

Elizabeth Cochran, a graduate student at the University of California, Los Angeles, is one of the study's authors.

Cochran and colleagues focused on the magnitude of high tides that they found to be associated with earthquakes. They determined that very high tides, rather than a normal tide cycle, seemed to coincide with seismic activity.

"For each event, we calculated the tides around the time of the occurrence. We calculated the stress on the fault, and we're basically seeing a very good correlation," said Cochran, who is with UCLA's Department of Earth and Space Sciences. "We see more events occurring when tidal stress is high—as long as the amplitude of that stress is large enough."

The team's findings are published in this week's issue of Science.

[indigobusiness]

14. Whether or not you are interested in him,

he is the one to ask for answers to your questions.

[pmbryant]

15. Here's another article, with a different conclusion

Well, I don't trust Berkland. I think he is a bit too much of a showman and self-promoter.

Here is another article I just found. This one suggests little connection between tides and earthquakes, contrary to the article above. Seems like this may be a controversial research area.

http://www.xs4all.nl/~carlkop/tidequak.html

[indigobusiness]

16. There's plenty of contrary evidence of Berkland. The staus quo

doesn't like being shook up. But it is always the anomalous mavericks that are most interesting to me. Particularly when they prevail.

Berkland is a very nice man, and is no huckster. He lives modestly and does what he does out of sincere interest, not self-promotion.
He deserves credit for his efforts.

[nashville_brook]

17. i love your posts, indigo...

berkland is way cool. he's not a 100 percent -- but hey, no one is.

[indigobusiness]

18. I love your smile

brook.

[nashville_brook]

19. awwwww --

:)

[indigobusiness]

20. 1/19/05 update

http://www.syzygyjob.net/frankcondon/messages/9278.shtml

[HawkerHurricane]

21. 3/1/05 update

No sign of earthquake.
Much anxiety.
Did earthquake board correct train?

[HawkerHurricane]

22. 26 May Update

Still no earthquake here.
"All's Quiet on the Western Front"

[Squeegee]

24. Here's the USGS's real-time earthquake forecast for California

http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/step/

[justsomegirl]

25. that's cool; thanks for sharing n/t