Debunking the Betelgeuse Brouhaha

[pokerfan]

Phil Plait (The Bad Astronomer) weighs in...

The actual science in the original article is pretty good; they talked with scientist Brad Carter who discusses the scenario of Betelgeuse going supernova. The whole story is pretty interesting - I wrote about it in detail the last time there was nonsense about Betelgeuse blowing up - but in a nutshell Betelgeuse is a red supergiant star in Orion with about 20 times the mass of the Sun, and it’s very near the end of its life. When stars this massive die, they explode as supernovae. The distance to Betelgeuse is unclear (it has a very puffy outer atmosphere which makes distance determination somewhat dicey) but it’s something like a bit more than 600 light years, way, way too far away to hurt us.

It's the question of when that the two articles go off the rails. Betelgeuse may explode tomorrow night, or it may not go kerblooie until the year 100,000 A.D. We don’t know. But given that huge range, the odds of it blowing up next year are pretty slim. And clearly, the original article was really trying to tie in the 2012 date to this, even when it has nothing to do with anything. The tie-in was a rickety link to scuttlebutt on the web about it, but that’s about it.

What’s worse, the HuffPo article attributes the date to Dr. Carter himself, but in the original article he never says anything about it; the connection is all made by the article author. Given how popular HuffPo is, I imagine a lot of people will now think an actual scientist is saying Betelgeuse will blow up in 2012.

OK then, tell you what: I’m an actual scientist, and I would give the odds of Betelgeuse going supernova in 2012 at all - let alone close to December, the supposed doomsdate - as many thousands to one against. It’s not impossible, it’s just really really really really really really really unlikely.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/01/21/tech/main7269888.shtml

[Ozymanithrax]

1. The 1300 light year distance is also in doubt.

Due to problems with the stars varying luminosity, it could be as close as 400 ly, and 650 seemed a more reasonable guess.

[laconicsax]

2. A HuffPo science article was terribly written and partially fictional?

That would never happen!

[Canuckistanian]

3. I knew it was a sensation piece

NOBODY completely understands the chain of events that lead to a supernova. It's all conjecture and theory, with no hard data.

We can't even predict earthquakes on our own planet, let alone thermonuclear processes 600 light years away.

And given that we haven't even SEEN a supernova in our local galaxy for over 400 years makes the prediction that much shakier.

Betelgeuse is going to go supernova, there's little doubt of that. But the timeline is a bit of a stretch.

[txlibdem]

6. Sure, but it could have happened 599 years ago and we'd never know

Until it's too late. :rofl: Hide! 2012 is coming to get us!!!

[TygrBright]

4. Betelgeuse! Betelgeuse! Betelgeuse! ("Daay-O! Daaaaaaaay-O!") n/t

[ThoughtCriminal]

5. Gamma Rays Come and we wan go home!

A beautiful bunch o ripe neutrinos!

[TheMadMonk]

7. Gamma ray come, no body go home.

Fortunately we're not in the firing line.

But the inverse square law is certainly going to make the neutrino boffins wet themselves like schoolgirls offered a prom date with "The Beiber" if/when Betleguese goes pop.

SN1987A in the Large Magellanic Cloud produced a whopping 11 neutrino events at Kamiokande-II at a distance of a smidge under 170k light years. Betleguese at 600ish should be good for ALMOST A MILLION.

Enough that it might be possible to construct an actual neutrino image for the first time ever.

So for the sake of cool science, (and the thought of a bunch of eggheads pouring wee from their shoes) let's hope the sensationalists have it over the sensible.