Scientists discover tipping point for the spread of ideas

[Why Syzygy]

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-07-minority-scientists-ideas.html

Scientists at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have found that when just 10 percent of the population holds an unshakable belief, their belief will always be adopted by the majority of the society. The scientists, who are members of the Social Cognitive Networks Academic Research Center (SCNARC) at Rensselaer, used computational and analytical methods to discover the tipping point where a minority belief becomes the majority opinion. The finding has implications for the study and influence of societal interactions ranging from the spread of innovations to the movement of political ideals.

"When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10 percent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of the universe for this size group to reach the majority," said SCNARC Director Boleslaw Szymanski, the Claire and Roland Schmitt Distinguished Professor at Rensselaer. "Once that number grows above 10 percent, the idea spreads like flame."

[liberal N proud]

1. And America proves it.

[phantom power]

2. "They are also looking to study ... a model where the society is polarized"

That seems quite important in the real world, where "true believers" may come in >= 2 opposing flavors.

[pscot]

4. They don't have to look very far.

[Why Syzygy]

6. True.

And among themselves they don't even agree. They are a multitude of factions. We should be grateful for that.

[damntexdem]

3. And when two or more 10%-segments hold contradictory unshakable beliefs, ...

the spreading flames become a conflagration.

[phantom power]

5. I wish they'd described results for their three network connectivity models.

I find it hard to believe their results were exactly the same for all three models. Network connectivity usually has a huge influence on these kinds of tipping points.

[Why Syzygy]

7. That's what it says...

"An important aspect of the finding is that the percent of committed opinion holders required to shift majority opinion does not change significantly regardless of the type of network in which the opinion holders are working. In other words, the percentage of committed opinion holders required to influence a society remains at approximately 10 percent, regardless of how or where that opinion starts and spreads in the society."

[phantom power]

9. That's a remarkable result, if true.

I'm used to seeing results where connectivity is more like the only thing that matters.

[Geoff R. Casavant]

8. It doesn't seem like a very elegant number.

I expect it's not exactly ten percent, but some number near ten that is far more elegant. For example, it has been demonstrated that the tipping point for new biological features to spread through a population is related to e, the natural exponent, and is also just a little over ten percent.

[phantom power]

10. pi^2

:evilgrin:

[Odin2005]

11. Wow. The spead of Christianity in Rome fits that hypothesis PERFECTLY.

In Ancient Rome Christianity reached that tipping point during the turbulent and chaotic years of the mid 200s AD, when there was a partial collapse of the borders and the army enthroned and deposed emperors in rapid succession. By the time Diocletian stabilized the empire Christianity had started to dominate the eastern part of the empire.